Hi all. I would like some thoughts on this question. If you play someone much stronger do you have a better chance if you play your usual opening, or if you try something offbeat like Nc3 or b3? Are there any statistics on whether upsets occur more often with unconventional openings?
Not clear what you mean by "much stronger". Let's assume at least 300 points higher.
If you play an offbeat opening like Nc3 or b3, an opening that doesn't even try for an opening advantage, you are likely to get in a worse position without much effort at all.
If you play a trappy opening line, in an opening you know very well, you are unlikely to surprise the player rated 300 points higher but it's always possible.
What opening do you know very well?
Look at this game you played against somebody rated almost 200 points higher. You had a good advantage out of the opening yet you ended up in deep trouble within only a few moves.
You were fine and probably even much better after the opening. I think that's what you want. You helped your opponent out from that point. He was all tangled up, with a bad bishop and you had a big space advantage. You traded your best piece for his worst piece and helped him bring about that attack on your d pawn. Before you knew it, you were back on your heels.
There must be a much better plan. I'm not sure exactly what but I know it doesn't involve trading away your superknight. It seems like the kind of position that IM Jeremy Silman would love. (Have you read "The Amateur's Mind"?) I would guess that a strategy trying to take advantage of his weakened king's position, taking advantage of some time gained going after his undefended queenside pawns might work out. I would want to start lobbing my h pawn at his kingside (after backing it up, of course).
Of course, coming up with the winning plan is the hard part. It's easier said than done... but I think it gives you the best chance.
Hi all. I would like some thoughts on this question. If you play someone much stronger do you have a better chance if you play your usual opening, or if you try something offbeat like Nc3 or b3? Are there any statistics on whether upsets occur more often with unconventional openings?