When will I stop improving?

Ever since I picked up chess, it didn't take much for my playing strength to increase. All I had to do was play some games, watch some YouTube, and wait for a set amount of time... and then whoosh! I'm suddenly stronger by 100 elo points. I never even knew what it was that got better in my game ─ I just started beating opponents I struggled with previously and that's it. The improvement just... happened. And it still does! The only thing that changed from my beginner days is the amount of time that it takes for my rating to jump by 100 points ─ it used to take only a few days, then a week, then a couple of weeks, and now it takes about 1-2 months. But the process is exactly the same ─ I don't need to do much to get better.

The problem is, it can't go on like this forever. For example, I'm pretty sure there are no or close to no grandmasters who started playing chess as adults, and I started playing at age 20, which means that I will probably never get to grandmaster-strength. So my question to higher-rated players for whom this process of natural improvement has stopped is: when did it stop for you? When can I realistically expect it to stop for me? And once it has stopped, what will I have to do to get even better? Furthermore, what do you think the absolute upper bound is on when I will reach my equilibrium point, and what will it take to have a chance of reaching that upper bound?

For reference, at the time of posting, my rating is 2200 on chess.com, and I have never played rated OTB.

Why it’s important to know your limit? If your improvement is legit, then you are an exceptional chess talent and you may become a world champion one day.


I also improve fast, taking an average it will be around 150 per year (I played chess for some time then quit then came back around 2 years ago).

I’m also an adult who is busy with work and family and I can play only during the night or sometimes in rest time at work, not most efficient times of my life, and I watch videos (if I have courage) only right before sleep. It means there is no dedication, I don’t know if dedication helps for my case, but it’s not important for me (chess won’t make me rich, just fills some of my gaps).

I don’t know about rapid, my rapid is around 2300 but I stopped playing after facing multiple consecutive cheaters. But about blitz, I think breaking 2200 ice was the most difficult one for me. By breaking 2200 I mean staying well above 2200 comfortably, not hitting 2200, and then tilting. The main difference with lower ratings (for me) was that I had to have a decent knowledge of openings and it took me time to gain some knowledge. I was stuck in 1500-1600 for a long time, then I started to watch some videos and after that for me from around 1600 to 2000 (and hitting 2100) happened in approximately 2 yrs, but reaching to 2200 took another 2 yrs, reaching 2300 another year (again by reaching I don’t mean hitting, I hit 2300 a year ago, but currently I’m there comfortably).

Your progress is too fast, more than 1k in 2 years, that’s unbelievably fast, even for kids it is maybe impossible (e.g. 12 yr old GM played chess for at least 6 years, if the starting point is 1200, it means averaging 230 points a year, much less than 500+). Just continue. You could be a very exceptional case.

There are many reasons why knowing my limit is important. First of all, it gives me an idea of whether I can rely on chess as a solid alternative source of income in the future. For example, if I can become an FM or IM in the next year and a bit, then I will no doubt be able to charge potential students a decent sum ─ especially given that I already enjoy teaching chess and people tell me I'm quite good at it. Secondly, it's just good psychological preparation for when I do end up hitting that equilibrium point ─ if I know roughly when to expect it, it will be a lot easier to come to grips with it. And thirdly, it's just basic curiosity. Everybody likes to ponder how their future may pan out in pretty much every walk of life, and chess is no different for me in this regard. 

I understand your frustration with the number of cheaters in Rapid. They are indeed pretty common around our rating range, but as far as I am concerned, it is useful to play extremely strong players every once in a while as a learning opportunity anyway, so I'm not too bothered by them.

I highly appreciate your kind words about my progress! I did indeed start playing last year, but, in truth, there are others who have progressed just as fast me. I believe @B1Zmark went from 1100 to 2200 in a single year, for example. I'd like to believe that I can become a top player at some point in the future, but, realistically speaking, I don't think that will happen. Either way, thanks a lot for the encouragement!

I improved from about 400-1350 in four months. Not hard. It isn’t the most difficult. But am I proud of it? He double hockey sticks yeah

Yeah it took me 4 months to get from 400 to 1400 as well. But it was always kind of expected that beginners should progress naturally and that's beside the point of my question. My question is when this natural improvement will stop.

No. In fact, I absolutely despised chess until last year and would refuse every opportunity to play it. It took my brother pretty much blackmailing me into playing a couple of chess games for me to get into chess.

One year and 9 months. I started January last year.

Wow. Talent.

Go to real tournaments. You will quickly see you are just an average club player. Provided you play at least 30 OTB games so your rating is accurate.

Why would you despise chess before you played it? I'm thinking you played as a kid? Possibly forced by parents and eventually quit?

It will stop when you realise it is only a game.

So maybe when you read this message and actually start thinking about it..

Even if what you say is true, that's still beside the point of the question. It's still undeniable that I am a better player now compared to 1 month ago, and I was a better player 1 month than I was 3 months ago, etc.

But I personally doubt your assertion. I have always been naturally better at slower time controls, so I shouldn't do worse in Classical than I do in e.g. Rapid. It might take some time for me to get used to the way the board looks in OTB as well as to the general setting, so I might underperform in my first few games, but I'm sure by the time that I've fully settled, my OTB rating should be reasonably close to my online rating. As far as I know, the average club player is rated 1500. I don't think it's realistic to expect my OTB rating to be that low.

To op: similar situation. Rapid stopped around 2100-2200 but I don’t play it; 

For blitz it was (and still is) the 2200-2300 area, same with bullet. 

Going to my all time blitz graph you can see that starting from around 1100 to 2200 took roughly a year and a bit more, and I’ve stayed at that level for the rest of my time here

My dad showed me how the pieces move when I was 5, and we even tried playing a few games. However, the moment we did, I immediately realised that this game wasn't for me. Since then, I had played maybe 10-15 games before I got into chess last year, and all of them involved both sides not knowing the rules fully (we didn't know about castling or promotion, for example). So, no, my parents didn't force me to do anything. I did loads of things other than chess as a kid, so my dad wasn't worried that chess wasn't one of those things.

Dang, the end really is near for me, isn't it? Although I'd like to think that there is still a lot of room for improvement for me. For example, if I could play as well as I do in Rapid but take 3 minutes do so instead of 10, I'd surely improve my Blitz rating by at least 300 points ─ and that's something that I should eventually be able to do given the right amount of experience with Blitz. Let's see if that ends up happening over the next few months or not.

Anyway, why do you think you stopped improving? Do you feel like there is little more to be improved through natural means? Could age have been a factor?

Well, during the summers of 2019 and 2020 I had a lot of free time. Especially during quarantine. Suspect that during the summers I put around 6 hours into chess each day since I don't have a wide range of hobbies.

Now? I play blitz online and not much else. Probably a good factor as to why I stopped improving.

Oh, I see! I've just noticed that you have played 14,000 games (even if almost 6,000 of them are bullet games). Obviously, I don't play that much. There were weeks where I played 6 hours (or even more) a day as well, but most weeks I either don't play chess at all or play only a little bit. 

I guess if I maintain the level of effort that I'm putting into chess right now, I may keep improving for a bit longer, then. Thanks for the answer!

Yeah. When I meant six hours it wasn't all playing - most of it was just reading chess books or watching videos and lessons, whether it be on chess.com/lessons or on youtube. Before 2000 blitz I exclusively played 10min, which was blitz back then.