I'm going for Fabiano Caruana, he's been hard to beat for years. It's getting to the now or never for Fabby, I think he'll take a lot of stopping.
Who's going to win the candidates? Elaborate.
Sort:
Fabiano and Hikaru are for sure the favourites, but my unpopular opinion is that nepo will be again back at the top and Fabiano will crumble under pressure in the second half of the candidates.
Ideally, give predictions on players' chances. Please don't go, "Pragg", or "Hikaru because he's my FAVORITE streamer"
Mine:
I think Hikaru slightly edges out Fabiano, with Hikaru managing to get 0 losses in classical in 2023, playing like a absolute beast. He plays solidly, and has won most encounters against Fabi, however, worried that Hikaru has done less prep bc his main focus is on streaming. Might help is mental, dunno
Fabi is a close second, obviously world #2 behind Magnus, highest rating, etc. I would usually say Fabi but favoring Hikaru because of the recent Isle of Man loss to Hikaru
Don't underestimate Nepo, though I don't see him winning the tournament, he keeps choking every world championship, not sure if he has the passion anymore, strong chance tho
Ding... uhhh, haven't played in a year and got clobbed in Freestyle Chess (Chess960), and by his recent results, after getting clobbered in recent tournaments, is not in the right mindset. Still good chance though, just not a favorite
Alireza + Pragg: Both are very strong players, but personally think they're old/matured enough to play every day for half a month against top players, especially Pragg. Alireza barely qualified, and after skipping FIDE world cup, I don't see that much fire in him
Vidit, Gukesh, Nijat: They'll do fine, probably will draw a good amount, I don't see them having the ability to win against players like Fabi or Hikaru, but might get some wins after say, Alireza press to hard and lose. They definitely won't win, but I can see a world where they end up with over 50% win rate.