Why do losing streaks happen?

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Jimmykay
kleelof wrote:
Jimmykay wrote:
kleelof wrote:
Jimmykay wrote:

Even leaving out obvious answers involving psychology, just think about basic probability. If you were to flip a coin 100 times, which would be more suprising?:

Alternating between heads and tails each and every flip. NOT alternating between heads and tails each and every flip, but having some streaks interspersed.

This is a horrible analogy. Flipping a coin is all about chance. In chess, we have the ability to affect the outcome.

It is all about psychology, physical health and focus. If anyone of these is off, you can be screwed.

I think we have all battled this. When I want to play chess, but feel my mind is not in it, I either study or do some tactical puzzles. If that doesn't fix it, I just don't play.

Also, I believe it is possible to play too much chess. I find with chess and playing guitar, if I take a break for a few days or a week, then when I come back, I do better than I was doing before.

Of course, this is all fine and dandy when it comes to internet chess. I would be interested to know how people playing in tournaments deal with slumps. I have no idea how I would deal with waking-up the morning of a tournament and feeling like my mind is not ready for chess.

I mentioned your OBVIOUS answers in my first sentence. Of course the OP has considered them. He is not an idiot.

It is an excellent analogy because, over time, all of the things you mention are obvious, and will even out. Statistical variance is all that is left.

I thought you might be a moron when I read your post, but your idiocy was fully confirmed by your biorythym nonsense. I believed that when I was 7 and you could put a quarter in a machine at the stripmall to get your result. Go back to the 70s and tell yourself to lay off the coke, imbecile.

 

Cool

RonaldJosephCote

                        Maybe a demotion from Colonel Knight, to Major Knight??

Jimmykay

Kleelof, the look on your face (Cry)was priceless. Just having fun with you. But my analogy was far from horrible and the next time you use that kind of language with me, expect the same quick and rough retort. BE POLITE IF YOU DISAGREE, OR I WILL GO WAY OVER THE TOP.

Learn to debate with IDEAS, not rude adjectives, because next time, I will be FAR less polite, in return.

Eseles
ColonelKnight wrote:

And avoid obvious answers like "because you suck at chess".

You should ask Carelson, he knows a lot about it Tongue Out

Till_98

Losing streaks are Happening 3 times in a month. Because of them my Bullet Rating dropped down from 2100 to 1600 and my Blitz Rating from 2072 to 1920. Really sad...

kleelof
Till_98 wrote:

Losing streaks are Happening 3 times in a month. Because of them my Bullet Rating dropped down from 2100 to 1600 and my Blitz Rating from 2072 to 1920. Really sad...

I would say losing enough games to go from 2100 to 1600 might be more than just a bad streak.

DjonniDerevnja
ColonelKnight wrote:

It might be focus. I don't think I am centered. I am too fatigued from having written this huge business document at work. Hmm, okay. Can't find it in me to draw out my A-game perhaps.

 

Kleelof, I have a friend who is in to art and sketching and stuff. She says playing her guitar just before she sketches helps her center. Funny thing this focus.

I have a friend with topintelligence close to Kasparovlevel, when she is well rested. Then the working week comes, and on friday she is mentally exhausted, with too little sleep, and the intelligence is very reduced.

I tend to do some blunders if I move pieces immidiately after I wake up, and suppose that 15 min of tactical traing will help my brain to wake up an adapt to the task.

Scottrf

The same reason there would be streaks if you flip a coin.

Ronnee

Players often play strategic systems and when ONE of their pieces is eliminated an imbalance occurs . There is SHOCK on losing side which they dont recover from quickly enough.  The other reason for losing streaks is chess.com partners you with a "matching " opponent  who may have been been elevated or demoted.  We are always challenged to rise higher in ranking. If we keep on winning  there is no improvement in our tactics,  Surely you have observed when you RISE too quicky they give you a substantial opponent who is much higher ranked and if you continue winning then you are not permitted to rise bec they offer you lower rankers so you deliberately SCORE LESS points. Chess.com  want to earn more money from you.  by keeping you at the SAME level they THINK you will take up LESSONS with them 

kleelof
Scottrf wrote:

The same reason there would be streaks if you flip a coin.

Someone else proposed that same piece of illogic earlier.

As cute as it sounds, it is inaccurate. Flipping a coin is 100% random, and cannot be affected by the flipper.

Winning a game of chess, on the other hand, is greatly affected by the player.

By saying it is the same as flipping a coin, you give the impression that we have no control over if we win or lose. Which, you, someone with a 2100+ online rating, must know is not true.

Unless you are just the luckiest SOB in the world. Laughing

Scottrf

If you have X rating gap over another player you have X chance of winning e.g. at 100 rating above you score 66%. Which games you win is to a large extent statistical variance just as it is flipping a coin. Otherwise you could just make sure you had a good state of mind, and score 100% against someone your level.

Senator-Blutarsky

Well, the loser sneeze happens when someone sneezes and blurts out "loser" under their breath, so when a person streaks and blurts out "losing", it's a similar scenario. Nothing statistical about the concept at all in fact.

kleelof
kaynight wrote:

WTF ?

Sorry, can you answer in the form of a sneeze?

Sossitch

If you win half your games, the odds at any time of starting a 5 game losing streak are 16:1. Not exactly astronomical.

TheGreatOogieBoogie
kleelof wrote:

According to this, I should be kicking ass today. Too bad I'm stuck working.

 

What the heck is that?! 

Jimmykay
Scottrf wrote:

If you have X rating gap over another player you have X chance of winning e.g. at 100 rating above you score 66%. Which games you win is to a large extent statistical variance just as it is flipping a coin. Otherwise you could just make sure you had a good state of mind, and score 100% against someone your level.

Correct, Scott. Don't mind, Kleelof. He calls things illogical when he doesn't understand them.

Hawksteinman

you lose one, so your morale goes down. this makes you likely to lose more and more.

kleelof
Jimmykay wrote:
Scottrf wrote:

If you have X rating gap over another player you have X chance of winning e.g. at 100 rating above you score 66%. Which games you win is to a large extent statistical variance just as it is flipping a coin. Otherwise you could just make sure you had a good state of mind, and score 100% against someone your level.

Correct, Scott. Don't mind, Kleelof. He calls things illogical when he doesn't understand him.

I understand me just fine, thanks.

Senator-Blutarsky
brumtown wrote:

you lose one, so your morale goes down. this makes you likely to lose more and more.

According to the far side, this is spot on!

DjonniDerevnja

If you have a winning streak, your rating will go up, and you will get tougher resistance that can give you a loosingstreak.