Ratings Comparison: Chess.com Blitz v USCF OTB

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It seems pointless because there's no correlation. I think you could get similar results by comparing a non-chess rating with any chess rating. 

DrawMaster

Well, statistically-speaking there is a correlation. But one must always remember that correlation may have NOTHING to do with declaring such a chart meaningful. Smile

However, no one is his right mind would disagree with the notion that the top players - AS A GROUP - in chess.com are stronger than the bottom players, or that - ON AVERAGE - they would probably fair better in OTB play than the bottom-rated players. Thus, there's always going to be a correlation between two reasonably constructed ratings sytems both with large pools of players.

In any case, YMMV (your mileage may vary).

Peace ... and good chess to you, regardless of rating, rating system, or rating pool. Wink

fianchetto123

I have a chess.com blitz rating of 2786, an online chess rating of 2918, a USCF rating of 2871, and a FIDE rating of 233. Would you include me in the statistics, please? 

fianchetto123

I've seen even more absurd claims than that, actually, such as people claiming a two-digit USCF rating, which doesn't exist. 

Negoba

USCF ratings don't even correlate that well with each other. Anyone who has been to a national tournament knows that 1500 in Idaho is different than 1500 in NYC is different from 1500 in Texas. I assume this closes at the Master level somewhat as the pool of players is smaller and the players travel and play each other. This would certainly happen even more at the GM level. 

HungryChild
Arun_1986 wrote:

Excellent Work! For someone who understands at least a bit of statistics, thsis makes sense :). 2 quick queries:

1. What was the linear regression equation got for this data between Chess.com and OTB rating?

e.g. looking for something like Y(OTB Rating) = a +bX; X-Chess.com rating

2. would it be possible to do this with data of all those who have a claimed USCF/FIDE rating and a chess.com rating? Larger the sample size, more valid the inference.

Nicely done once again, very insightful.

This seems like a really stupid question.  Your more making a statement about you've taken a statistics class than asking a question.

TheAdultProdigy
Rommeldam wrote:

Unfortunately there are a lot of engine assisted players here although almost no premium members. That reduces the rating considerably. With my FIDE rating of over 2150 it is difficult to maintain a blitz rating over 1800! 

I am finding this to be the case.  Three friends from the Pittsburgh Chess Club, all active players, have a USCF classic rating of 2100 and blitz ratings of about 1950-2000, and their chess.com blitz ratings are all in the 1550-1750 range.  They peak higher, but that's where they are, typically, in that range.

TheAdultProdigy
Negoba wrote:

USCF ratings don't even correlate that well with each other. Anyone who has been to a national tournament knows that 1500 in Idaho is different than 1500 in NYC is different from 1500 in Texas. I assume this closes at the Master level somewhat as the pool of players is smaller and the players travel and play each other. This would certainly happen even more at the GM level. 

Very true.  Additionally, folks who play big tourns with lots of sandbaggers tend to be lower.  I've seen quite a few players at the World Open, Chicago Open, etc., burst on the scene after two years of tournament inactivity and jump up a ton of points.  The fact that many people lose to this kind og person on the big tourn scene, ratings tend to be lower.  I once visited a small town for a tourn, and felt the ratings were much higher than what I saw in their playing ability.

SwellGadgets

As Sunshiny mentions, visually speaking there does not appear to be a correlation between the variables.  You mention that there is a correlation of 0.6, but I'm pretty confident that the values represented in your plot do not indicate a correlation of 0.6.  There is so much variability in the chess.com scores that if you know that someone's USCF rating is, say, 1665 then you cannot even remotely predict what their chess.com scores is.  Judging by the plot it is as plausible that their chess.com score is 1500 as it is that their score is 1700.

TheAdultProdigy
ComplexWaitingMoves wrote:

I am 1824 FIDE std, 1770 rapid.  Can't get to 1600 blitz on chess.com It's hard for me to do well in blitz on here!  I have found too many 1400 level blitz opponents that felt stronger than an expert!  

Oh and something I have noticed about the "evolved engine users".  A lot of blitz engine users now will throw in some of their own moves, or blunder a piece right out of the opening and then use the program to play perfectly from thence on with zero mistakes and akward anti-positional moves that somehow are the perfect move.  How do these engine users go without getting caught?  Idk it seems obvious to me.  You review their games, they play below 1000 or above 2000 with no in-between.

 

You might be on to something.  I've been away from USCF OTB chess (this is my first week back), so I can't say with respect to my rating.  However, three of my close friends, all between 2050 and 2150 USCF in classic rating, are 1700's in chess.com blitz.

notmtwain

http://www.chess.com/blog/smarterchess/chesscom-rating-comparison-2015 appears to contain updated data:

Chess.com Rating Comparison 2015

 

UPDATED WITH OVER 370 ENTRIES!

Many players are curious about how the different chess.com ratings stack up against each other.  This survey is designed to figure out the answer!  

 

At the bottom of the survey there are also a few questions about USCF and FIDE ratings for comparison purposes.  If you would like to remain anonymous on chess.com it's recommended you leave the USCF/FIDE fields blank.

 

To help keep the survey accurate please only fill in fields when you have 25+ total games in that category, and 5+ games in the last 6 months.  As the results start to come in I'll create a few plots and summary tables in the results spreadsheet.  Enjoy!

 

Results  -- A new survey will be created in the future.

After removing outliers, linear models were used to predict rating categories in relation to chess.com blitz rating.