Caruana Closing In On Carlsen In Feb. Ratings

One tournament can make a big difference.

Thanks to his fantastic Tata Steel Chess tournament, Fabiano Caruana is just 20 points behind Magnus Carlsen in the February FIDE ratings. 

Caruana won 19.6 Elo points in Wijk aan Zee. That's a lot for just one event, especially for someone rated above 2800. Carlsen lost 9.6 points, decreasing the difference between the top two players in the world by nearly 30 points.

After rounding up their new ratings, Carlsen ended on 2862 and Caruana on 2842 (nine points below his highest-ever live rating), a difference of just 20 points. With one or two more great performances by Caruana, the world champion's number-one status could be under pressure again.

Two years ago, Caruana won the 2018 Candidates' Tournament and then the Grenke Chess Classic. A repeat of those achievements would be historic in terms of ratings as well.

The top 10 saw few changes otherwise, except for Wesley So winning 5.4 points in Wijk aan Zee and Anish Giri losing 5.2 points, which pushed him out of the top 10. Shakhriyar Mamedyarov lost 5.7 points in Gibraltar, but that wasn't calculated in this list yet.

Due to losing 16.1 points, also in Wijk aan Zee, Nikita Vitiugov dropped out of the world's top 20.

FIDE Standard Ratings, February 2020 (Top 20)

For the first time, there are only 35 players on or above 2700.0 since https://t.co/pCGl6XvSDa was launched in May 2011, when there were 39 (the maximum amount of players on or above 2700.0 was 53) #deflation pic.twitter.com/WWHWmy9ylZ

— 2700chess (@2700chess) February 1, 2020

Last month we discussed the new rapid and blitz ratings, right after the world rapid and blitz championships had ended. As there were no speed chess events in January, nothing has changed a month later except for the absence of two Ukrainians at the very top.

FM Ihor Kobylianskyi would still be the world number-six in the rapid ratings, and GM Iuri Shkuro would be the world number-seven in the blitz ratings if FIDE hadn't decided to hold them as "inactive." Both obtained high enough ratings to stand shoulder-to-shoulder with super-GMs thanks to high scores in local tournaments against low opposition. These results created at least a strong suspicion of rating manipulation.

The situation of Shkuro (who was in the blitz top 10 for several years before dropping out due to inactivity and returning in January) and now Kobylianski has been a thorn in the side of top grandmasters, even though some have been heard joking about "being above Shkuro" as something for which to strive.

Ian Nepomniachtchi in an interview with Chess.com back in October was less relaxed about it:

The only people who I truly dislike are those who buy and sell games, ratings and titles.

On Thursday, FIDE announced that it has started an investigation into the results of the two players, in an attempt to "avoid accusations from interested parties of poor sportsmanship and questionable ethical practices when registering and submitting tournaments for rating."

As a result, we are back to having "clean" rating lists:

FIDE Rapid Ratings, February 2020 (Top 20)

FIDE Blitz Ratings, February 2020 (Top 20)

The women's standard list saw little change, which will be different next month when the Gibraltar results have been added. Ju Wenjun handed 1.2 ratings points to Aleksandra Goryachkina as the classical part of their world title match ended 6-6. (Ju's 2.5-1.5 win in the playoff also transferred 2.8 rapid rating points to her lower-rated opponent.) 

FIDE Standard Ratings (Women), February 2020 (Top 20)

Playing under the FIDE flag, Alireza Firouzja ended up gaining three rating points in Wijk aan Zee, while Jeffery Xiong (U.S.) lost three. They remain the only two 2700+ players among the juniors. Nodirbek Abdusattorov of Uzbekistan climbed to the seventh spot thanks to winning nine points in the Tata Steel Challengers.

Armenia's Haik Martirosyan won 17.3 points while playing two open tournaments in Switzerland and the Armenian league. He's now the ninth-ranked junior in the world, pushing Nihal Sarin out of the top 10. 

FIDE Top Juniors, February 2020 (Top 10)

The top 10 of the girls hardly changed. It is still a very international affair with just two players from the same country: Carissa Yip and Annie Wang from the U.S. Zhansaya Abdumalik top the standings with her +10.3 points from Gibraltar still to be added next month.

FIDE Top Girls, February 2020 (Top 10)

All data courtesy FIDE.

Chess.com Blitz and Bullet

Let's also check out the current blitz and bullet ratings on Chess.com. On our site, it's usually more interesting to look at who is number two, as the number-one is ordinarily Hikaru Nakamura—in both lists.

Compared to last month, Daniel Naroditsky has dropped from second to fifth place in the blitz rankings. Right behind Nakamura we now find Firouzja, who is doing great in both over-the-board and online chess.

Chess.com Blitz ratings per Jan. 31, 2020

(See the full and most up-to-date list here.)

Last month, Nakamura's lead over Shant Sargsyan of Armenia was still more than 100 points, but if we look at the bullet list now we see that it's just 16 points. Here, Firouzja was third but now has dropped out of the top 10. It's Naroditsky who is "best of the rest," behind the two 3200+ giants.