Carlsen Not Guilty On 3/4 Counts In Niemann Ruling, Fined €10,000 For Withdrawal

GM Magnus Carlsen has been declared not guilty of three charges brought against him by FIDE's Ethics & Disciplinary Commission following the 2022 Sinquefield Cup, but he was fined for "withdrawing without a valid reason".

The long-awaited verdict from the FIDE Ethics & Disciplinary Commission (EDC) regarding charges against Carlsen for his conduct after losing to GM Hans Niemann in the Sinquefield Cup has finally been released.

Carlsen, potentially facing a ban from FIDE-rated tournaments, was ultimately found not guilty of the most important charges. Nevertheless, he was found guilty of "withdrawing without a valid reason" and fined €10,000 ($10,800).

"I am happy to be finished with the case." Carlsen told TV 2 in Toronto. "It's clear that there were worse scenarios," he said, adding that he would have played more online if he had been banned.

The verdict concludes:

• Article 11.7(f): Reckless or manifestly unfounded accusation of chess cheating: Not guilty
• Article 11.6(b): Disparagement of FIDE's Reputation and Interest: Not guilty
• Article 11.9 (f): Attempt to undermine honour: Not guilty
• Article 11.9(b): Withdrawing from a tournament without a reason: Guilty

The decision emphasizes that Carlsen, as the World Champion and the world's highest-rated player, should lead by example. His withdrawal, viewed as an act of "bad sportsmanship," circumvented proper procedures for addressing such concerns confidentially.

The EDC noted that Carlsen should have followed the proper procedural means available to players, instead of withdrawing.

Regan's Findings

FIDE initiated an investigation after Carlsen publicly accused Niemann of more frequent and recent cheating than he had admitted to. 

The EDC relied on an investigatory report conducted by IM Kenneth Regan, a professor and long-time advisor to FIDE on computer cheating. The professor analyzed Niemann's games in the Sinquefield Cup and 13 of his over-the-board tournaments within the past three years. The report did not yield any statistical evidence to support cheating, according to Regan.

"Niemann's performance through the years is characterized by peaks and troughs consistent with his expected level of play," the decision states.

Regan also addressed Chess.com's Hans Niemann report which stated that the American teenager "likely had cheated in more than 100 games" online—more than he admitted to. The professor conducted his own statistical analysis that found that Niemann cheated in 32-55 games.

The decision notes:

The analysis of the Chess.com Report revealed discrepancies in GM Niemann's statement—he claimed the cheating took place when he was 12 and 16 years old, but games of 2017 and the games against Bok in August of 2020 occurred after he turned 17 in June. Another important discrepancy is that the cheating took place in rated online games.

Two anonymous 'super GMs' submitted their opinion to the panel on whether cheating occurred. Neither grandmaster believed it did as the games were 'normal for a GM level player'. One grandmaster remarked that some of the games were "somewhat suspect." 

In his response to the EDC, Carlsen has criticized the investigation for only reviewing Niemann's tournaments from the last three years, and Regan's methodology, which Regan himself has acknowledged is imperfect since it cannot "catch cheating on one move per game."

Rather, by Professor Regan's own rough estimate, a cheater would need to cheat on three moves per game in a six to nine round tournament to have a fair chance for him to be caught using his methodology. Therefore, it is argued by the Respondent that in a game involving high-performing grandmasters that could be decided based on a single move, Professor Regan's methodology is highly unlikely to detect cheating. 

FIDE: An "In-Between Situation"

The most serious charge was the violation of FIDE Disciplinary Code Article 11.7(f) which prohibits "Reckless or manifestly unfounded accusation of chess cheating." The EDC examines what constitutes an accusation, noting that withdrawal from a tournament in itself is not tantamount to an accusation.

Using the objective standard, the EDC Chamber believes that after a public confession of cheating by GM Niemann, a neutral person may be of the belief that GM Niemann has cheated, and that he has also possibly cheated more than he admits. An assumption that is vindicated by the Chess.com Report, and Professor Regan's conclusions of a review of that Report. 

The EDC calls this particular case an "in-between-situation" where a complaint can be well-founded without the suspected person being found guilty of cheating. The chamber noted that Carlsen's statement regarding Niemann being a cheater was made after Niemann's own confession that he cheated online.

In the Chamber's opinion, this mitigates his comment from being reckless, or manifestly unfounded as Niemann himself admitted to cheating. 

The EDC also noted with "disappointment" the lack of evidence provided by Carlsen throughout the communication in the initial stage of the case, where a stay of proceedings was granted due to the civil case in the U.S. legal system. The EDC notes Carlsen said he had "some concrete evidence he could provide after the US litigation was settled or decided upon," but it was never provided.

No Distinction Between OTB And Online Cheating

Even if Carlsen "extended the label of Niemann being a cheater to over-the-board games," the EDC does not want to make that distinction.

The EDC Chamber finds it unnecessary however to make a distinction between different forms of cheating.  Whether it be over-the-board cheating, or online cheating in chess, it does not make one lesser of an offence than the other; it is still an assault on the integrity of the sport. 

The EDC also found Carlsen not guilty of breaching Article 11.9 (f) "Attempt to undermine honour." 

It cannot be found with comfortable satisfaction that GM Carlsen acted with any malicious intent or motive; there is no evidence to suggest that he deliberately and falsely branded GM Niemann as a cheater whilst knowing the opposite to be true. 

While the investigatory report concluded that Carlsen's accusations against Niemann brought chess into disrepute, the EDC disagreed and said that the coverage of the matter "made chess a popular topic of discussion around the world."

Therefore, the EDC Chamber does not believe that the attention this case has gained has harmed the reputation and interests of FIDE. On the contrary, the EDC Chamber believes that it may have piqued the interests and awareness of many persons, now desirous of learning how cheating can actually occur in chess.

The fine is subject to an appeal within 21 days.

Note: Chess.com reached an agreement and concluded a legal dispute with Niemann in August. Carlsen also expressed that he is open to playing Niemann again.

[Update December 13: Added Carlsen's quotes from Toronto to the story.]