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can magnus carlson cross the 3000 elo barrier

  • 3 months ago · Quote · #361

    DjonniDerevnja

    There is a huge risk Magnus is facing . The ladys. He might get married. What happens in a marriage, can show in the ratingnumbers.

  • 3 months ago · Quote · #362

    btickler

    Estragon wrote:

    The question of "inflation" is a different one, which is not possible to measure.  The best players of each era are stronger than those before, with a few shining exceptions.  And each builds off the refinements of those before.  Chess has not stopped improving in quality at the highest levels.

    The top 20 or so players of today are not there because of inflation.  If you judged their moves against the strong engines, they would do better than players 20 years ago, or 40 or 75.

     

    The idea that Carlsen "can't" achieve 3000 for mathematical reasons is not correct.  It assumes that the others in the top 20 and top 50 will not continue to improve their games and ratings.  That's a false assumption.

    It is also not the case that the top rated player cannot gain rating points.  It is more difficult at that level because of the low "k" value, it is not possible to move up quickly once you are on top.  But Carlsen took over first place for the last time in July 2011 at 2821.  In the 22 months since then, he has gained 60 points.

    It's almost impossible to gain 30 points a year at his level.  But he's been doing it.  There is nothing magical about 2882 that makes it less possible to advance than 2821 does.  It is a matter of results of course.

    In 2011, Carlsen was just pushing ahead of Anand, Kramnik, Topalov, and Aronian.  Now he is clearly the superior of all of them.

    He's 23.  The history tells us that the great masters tend to hit their peak at 32.  He is getting better. 

    Carlsen had a bad tournament at the Super-GM Gashimov Memorial, lost two games in a row, bungled a win into a draw, and still managed to win the tournament with +4 in ten games.

    It could easily take five years, but it is not at all inconceivable that Carlsen could reach 3000 if his progress continues.

    For Carlsen to reach 3000 in 5 years, he would have to gain 120 rating points.  That would be almost linear with his 60 point gain in the past 2 years.  With Aronian at 2830, the top of the ratings pool is like an asymptote for Carlsen, with 3130 being effectively infinity, in terms of achievable winning percentage vs. the pool.  Postulating an easy 3000 rating from 2900 is more like hiking up Mt. Shasta, and then claiming you can climb K2 because it's only twice as tall.

    If Carlsen makes 3000, it will probably be because of changes by FIDE, or slow inflation of the pool.

  • 3 months ago · Quote · #363

    DjonniDerevnja

    How many points will he drop if or when he looses for a 2350 player? 

  • 3 months ago · Quote · #364

    gabriel112000

    -9.2

  • 3 months ago · Quote · #365

    Scottrf

    It is inconceivable that Carlsen can reach 3000. He hadn't had a single tournament performance that would indicate that it's achievable.

  • 3 months ago · Quote · #366

    Elubas

    He has had 3000 performance ratings in tournaments. But those were somewhat special, even for him. He'd have to be that brilliant every tournament he plays for years to come, and any time he messes up he will lose a lot of hard-earned progress.

  • 3 months ago · Quote · #367

    PDubya

    You can see the difficulty outlined here: http://www.2700chess.com/glass.php?statistic=2

    Carlsen had 8 good games, where he scored 6.5/8. If he'd only played these 2 games his rating would now be 2895. Alas, he lost 2, and therefore his rating actually went down overall!

         Points     Games           Rating
    6.5 8 12.3
    0 2 -13.5

     It's a credit to Carlsen that he nearly always goes for the win, despite the effect a loss will have on his rating.

  • 3 months ago · Quote · #368

    dwz

    no, but he will break the 2900.

  • 3 months ago · Quote · #369

    DjonniDerevnja

    I think that there will always come strong players from below, and that he can loose for some underrated 2400 players on their way up. losses that costs a lot of ratingpoints.

    I know a 17 year old talent that went from below 2000 to 2350 in a year, players in this category can gain strenght faster than they gain ratingpoints, and du serious ratingdamage to higher rated players, that not necessarily are stronger. I think Magnus is the strongest, but he too are taking a loss now and then.

  • 3 months ago · Quote · #370

    Scottrf

    Elubas wrote:

    He has had 3000 performance ratings in tournaments. But those were somewhat special, even for him. He'd have to be that brilliant every tournament he plays for years to come, and any time he messes up he will lose a lot of hard-earned progress.

    He wouldn't break 3000 with 3000 performances for the rest of his career.

  • 2 months ago · Quote · #371

    gabriel112000

    Beware! For we haven't seen the best of Magnus Carlsen yet.

  • 2 months ago · Quote · #372

    ChrisWainscott

    He's had one 3000 performance rating.  One.  He would need sustained 3000 perfomance ratings for a long time to even come close.  2900?  Most likely.  2925?  Perhaps.  3000?  You're living in a fantasy world where you don't understand basic math.

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