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Wei Yi v Carlsen
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Nice comparison.
I was aware that Wei Yi has already overtaken Carlsen in terms of rating for age, but not the dynamics of it.
Keep it up, I like statistics like this.
Wei Yi is now up to 2737. Carlsen was 2693 at the same age (16y 4 m), and didn't reach this level til 17y 1m, so Wei Yi is 9 months ahead of him at this moment in time.
We could measure ratings in Carlsen.
For every rating there exists an age at which Carlsen reached it ( AC ).
A player having this rating has an age ( AP ).
We can get the player's Carlsen rating as CR = AC - AP.
If CR > 0, this means that the player is ahead of Carlsen.
CR is not dimensionless as normal rating, it is measured in time units.
CR ( Wei Yi ) = +9 months
CR ( watcha ) = -100 years
The latter means that Carlsen was not even born, when his rating was already higher than mine.
watcha wrote:
We could measure ratings in Carlsen.
For every rating there exists an age at which Carlsen reached it ( AC ).
A player having this rating has an age ( AP ).
We can get the player's Carlsen rating as CR = AC - AP.
If CR > 0, this means that the player is ahead of Carlsen.
CR is not dimensionless as normal rating, it is measured in time units.
CR ( Wei Yi ) = +9 months
CR ( watcha ) = -100 years
The latter means that Carlsen was not even born, when his rating was already higher than mine.
Wei Yi has been extremely impressive, but wouldn't be the first Chinese prodigy to stall a bit if his development would slow down. Bu Xiangzhi was the youngest GM ever at the end of the 1990s and great things were expected from him, but he never won a top event. Hou Yifan was the best player in the world her age a few years ago but has been overtaken with quite a margin by younger players like Giri. Wang Yue was later in his development but reached top 10 five years ago to later drop below top 50, even if he now seems to have stabilised around #30. Wang Hao scored great results a few years ago, winning Biel ahead of Carlsen and being close to top 10, but is now barely top 50.
Maybe there is no reason to group Chinese players together like this, and Wei Yi does look the real thing, already playing even minimatches against elite opponents like Ding Liren and Svidler. Consistent top results in elite events are very difficult to produce but if any of the teen players today will be able to do it Wei Yi is the most likely candidate. Carlsen's results are hard to match though, he was around Wei Yi's current age when he finished second in Linares.
Women ratings should be measured in PJ. This is their age difference compared to when Polgár Judit reached the same rating.
On the PJ rating list Hou Yifan is only a sad second, because the first is Carissa Yip.
PJ rating list:
1. Carissa Yip
2. Hou Yifan
3. Mamedyarov Shakhriyar
Don't be surprised by the occupant of the third place, because his country organizes the world cup, and anyway he reached high women ratings in a very young age.
The following is a comparison of Wei Yi and Carlsen's Elo ratings, starting at 13. Given that Wei Yi is currently 25 points ahead of Carlsen at a comparable age, one can only imagine the future in store for this very young man.
Carlsen had a big head start, and was almost 100 Elo above Wei Yi at 13. However, Wei Yi's rating exploded between 13 and 15, rising a staggering 235 points in that 2 year span. It shows no sign of slowing either, as he's picked up a further 87 points since then, and is already knocking on the door of the Elite.
Carlsen's rating appeared to stall around the 2700 mark for a year, before jumping rapidly to around 2775, and lingering for another year. He broked through to 2800 at 19, and then of course continued his climb to 2882, and World Champion.
Based on the below table it would appear Wei Yi is on track to smash Carlsen's records. The question is, will his rating hit the skids when he starts playing in Elite field events? I assume this is possibly why Carlsen's rating stalled at various intervals, as he got used to his new opponents, before working out ways to overcome them.