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The reason rating increases are a bad solution

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kundabuffer
webmaster wrote:

a scientific evaluation by our staff of our system has suggested to us that the best, most efficient way to fix this is "problem" to simply "inflate" (don't worry, we aren't printing money here ) all ratings by an amount that we deem most reasonable for each rating class:

+150 for <1600
+200 for 1600-1700
+300 for 1700-1800
+400 for 1800+
and
+500 for titled players
 
We are fully aware that some players currently rated lower than 1600 will claim he/she is worth more than a 150 point boost -- and in some cases, they may be right!
 
Likewise, we are also aware that boosting some titled players by 500 may be putting them at a rating 200-300 points higher than they should be.
 
But on average, this is what we came up with. And for those of you who feel you aren't getting enough and that some higher rated players are getting too much, well then you will have fun taking their "over-rated" points away from them as you climb the ladder, won't you !
 
enjoy and have fun!
 
staff


The size of the pool of players determines rating variance around the mean. While you can shift the mean rating, you can't alter the spread without changing the either the size of the population or the rating algorithm itself. Adding a different amount of rating points dependent on base rating might make a few people happy for now, but it will not affect variance in the long run.

For example: Player 1 with 1800 rating points is now 2200, Player 2 with 1600 is now 1800. Skill or ELO rating difference predicts the chance of Player 1 winning against Player 2 (~75% in this case), the chance of winning then determines the rating adjustment on each outcome. But clearly the skill of Player 1 and 2 has not changed overnight and they still have the same skill level (ie a +-200 difference), but your system has arbitrarily assigned them a +-400 difference. In order for the maintain their new ratings, Player 1 would need to win ~91% of games, but since relative skill is still ~75% wins for Player 1,the algorithm will act to quickly reduce rating difference to +-200 again to reflect relative skill level as more games are played. Add more players to the pool and the effect remains the same.

The net impact will be that you shift the mean upwards by approximately the average amount of points added (e.g. 200). But since new rating differences do not represent relative skill level and the algorithm/population are unchanged, these will act to quickly bring ratings into accordance with the previous variance, making the idea of different points added as a function of rating moot. New players entering the population will also begin to shift the mean downwards unless initial rating is also shifted by this amount. If you want to adjust variance to better reflect reality, then you need to adjust the ELO algorithm such that the a constant difference in player skill results in a larger points difference.

xman720