Who Will Win The Candidates? 7 GMs Offer Their Take
Just because you're playing in the 2026 Candidates Tournament doesn't mean you can't rank your opponents ahead of time. Seven grandmasters, including four of the candidates, recently gave their takes about the field and the tournament which begins March 29: GMs Hikaru Nakamura, GM Javokhir Sindarov, GM Fabiano Caruana, GM Anish Giri, who are all playing in the tournament, as well as GM Denis Lazavik, GM Magnus Carlsen, and "final boss" GM Alireza Firouzja.
The overall consensus was clear: Caruana and Nakamura at the top, with GM Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu close behind. Giri, Sindarov, and GM Wei Yi completed a tier just behind the top three, with GM Andrey Esipenko seventh and GM Matthias Bluebaum eighth.
Favorites
Between Caruana and Nakamura, Caruana seemed to be the top pick. Giri considered Caruana "a big favorite by all metrics you can use" while Lazavik called him the "obvious" top pick. Carlsen graded Caruana and Nakamura closer while dubbing them the "old Americans" with a wry smile on his face.
Caruana decided not to rate himself, and put Nakamura and Praggnanandhaa in the top tier. Nakamura was the only of the four candidates to put himself in the top tier, but like Caruana he also named Pragg a top tier favorite.
Middle of the Pack
Giri and Sindarov each rated themselves in the second "good chances" tier. It was actually Nakamura who ended up rating Giri the highest: "If he comes in with great opening preparation he has real chances."
Giri's list was also notable for another reason: he forgot to rank a player.
Carlsen, after ranking Caruana and Nakamura top two with Praggnanandhaa third, placed everyone else in the lowest tier. He came close to ranking Wei Yi a bit higher, but ultimately decided that while the Chinese player "is really good, I don't think he's capable of winning enough games to win the Candidates."
Underdogs
Only two players enter the Candidates with under a 2700 FIDE rating, those being Esipenko and Bluebaum, and their positions on the various tier lists reflected that disadvantage. Esipenko has crossed that threshold before, but Bluebaum has not, and that was also reflected in the rankings.
Even Firouzja—who didn't appear in the video until the seventh minute, decried the tournament as random, and put seven players in the "favorites" tier—couldn't help but put Bluebaum in "good chances."
Bonus Question
Players were asked one final question: Who isn't playing in the Candidates but probably should be? Three names dominated the discussion: GMs Vincent Keymer, Arjun Erigaisi, and Nodirbek Abdusattorov. Here Nakamura had the strongest take: "The current format for qualification is a little bit suspect... It seems a bit of a tragedy that neither Arjun nor Vincent qualified."
Conclusion
Check out the video to see every player's complete ranking and other opinions on the Candidates Tournament!
Who is are your favorites to win the Candidates? Let us know in the comments! And remember to watch the Candidates starting March 29 to see how accurate the rankings were.
Nathaniel Green is a staff writer for Chess.com who writes articles, player biographies, Titled Tuesday reports, video scripts, and more. He has been playing chess for about 30 years and resides near Washington, DC, USA.
