Tropical Cyclone Freddy 2023

This is a dangerous system. Damaging winds, heavy rainfall, storm surge, rough seas, mudslides, and flash flooding are all possible risks.

Freddy is located 1385 km southeast of Diego Garcia, and has moved westward at 22 km/h (12 knots) over the past 6 hours.

Freddy is forecast to continue its westward march and based on its annular characteristics, it has demonstrated a proclivity for cocooning itself and resisting the shear and dry environment that surrounds it.

Over the next 12 hours, based on this cocooning and otherwise positive environmental conditions, (warm sea surface temperatures and good divergence aloft) Freddy will likely retain most of its current intensity.

After 12 hours the system will begin to slowly weaken as it continues westward under the steering influence of the subtropical ridge to the south.

As the steering ridge struggles to build westward, the system will gradually steady up on a west-southwestward course. In the extended track, Freddy is forecast to increase speed as the ridge consolidates and reorients, forcing the still typhoon strength system towards Madagascar.

Forecast models are in fair agreement with a bulk of the guidance following the JTWC forecast track while COAMPS-TC (NVGM version) shows a more poleward track towards southern Madagascar.

Based on the 556 km spread in solutions at 5 days, the initial track forecast is placed with high confidence while the extended track forecast is placed with medium confidence.

Reliable model intensity guidance shows that a bulk of the models show slight weakening or stagnation over the next 12 hours after which gradual decline through the forecast period with all members indicating a typhoon strength TC at 5 days. For this reason the initial intensity forecast is placed with medium confidence while the extended intensity forecast is placed with low confidence.

Maximum significant wave height is 11.9 meters (39 feet).