Week 4 Predictions – Wednesday matches

By FM Robby Adamson

Week 4 started off well with a win by the Arizona Scorpions and a 3-1 record in picking the Monday Matches.  Overall record after Week 4 Monday matches is 17-11.

 Boston Blitz vs. New England Nor’easters

A tough match-up between 2 strong teams in the East. This game means a lot to both teams, though Boston really needs to step-up.

Key Game for Boston – Larry Christiansen (BOS)  vs. Sam Shankland (NE). Larry has struggled so far but having the white pieces means he will come after Shankland, who has struggled recently as well. Boston needs to win this one to win the match.

Key Game(s) for New England – WGM Anya Corke (BOS) vs. FM Chris Chase and NM Cherniack (NE) vs. NM Krasik (BOS).  Both of these matches are toss-ups. FM Chase won a nice game vs FM Victor Shen (a game that got no love from the GOTW judges for some reason). NM Cherniack’s debut went well against little Shen,, while Krasik struggled.

Prediction: This match can go either way – and is really a hard choice given the even match-ups. I will predict New England wins 2.5-1.5.

New Jersey Knockouts vs. Carolina Cobras 

This looks like a total mismatch though this again could be closer than one would expect.

Key Game(s) for New Jersey – While boards 1 and 2 obviously need to come through given their huge rating edges, NJ needs IM Kapengut to score on board 3, as does Carolina!

Key Game for Carolina – Craig Jones (CAR) needs to take advantage of playing white and 200 rating point advantage against Anna Matlin. He also needs to rebound from his loss to me in Fantasy Football (thank you Jamal Charles). Carolina needs Schroer to hold against NJ giant Joel Benjamin.

Prediction:  Hard to pick against NJ here, given how strong their team is – even though Gulko gets a rare black. NJ wins 3-1.

Los Angeles Vibe vs. Chicago Blaze

LA puts forth their strongest lineup yet. Chicago is sitting pretty at 2.5/3. LA needs this one badly. I expect a very back and forth match. Also, IM Matigozian makes his debut for LA.

Key Game for LA –  GM Melik Khachiyan vs. GM Dmitry Gurevich. Its great to see a GM vs. GM lineup in the West division and Melik will need to win this one.

Key Game for Chicago –  IM Angelo Young vs. WFM Tatev Abrahamyan. I expect this game to go a long time and may ultimately decide the match, though all 4 boards seem to be toss-ups to me.

Prediction:  If Melik wins, and McLovin wins on board 4, LA wins. I am 51% sure of this pick –LA wins 2.5-1.5. 

San Francisco Mechanics vs. Seattle Sluggers 

Seattle shows they are serious about contending as they fly Akobian up again for this match. Fortunately for SF, they bring in Josh Friedel to counter this.

Key Game(s) for SF: FM Steven Zierk vs. FM Michael Lee. Does Steven get revenge from his loss to Michael Lee in Jr High Nationals a few years ago?

Key Game for Seattle –  In addition to board 1, Seattle really needs to score on board 2. I don’t know anything about Cozianu but with white he has to score.

Prediction: Seattle is favored on paper, but I just don’t buy it. If Friedel wins or draws on board 1 with white – something I expect him to do, SF wins 2.5-1.5.