Ultimate Sensei 2 Finale - Predictions

After 10 weeks of training, and testing each other in tactics, endgames, and exhibition matches, the 8 contestants will face off in a match-tournament this weekend, Jan 22-23, to see which coach has done the best job of improving their students and will seize the title of Ultimate Sensei. And you have a chance right now to show how well you know the contestants and coaches by predicting the results. We have a full bracket that you can fill out, which will allow us to track who is the Ultimate Fan.

Note on Finals format:

All games will be played at 15+5. In the event of a tied match, the players will continue playing in sudden death mode: the next win wins the match. Rounds 1+2 are 2-game matches, while round 3 is a 4-game match.

Points in the tournament will be awarded as follows:

The winner of Match 9 is Champion, and scores 8 points for their team.
The loser of Match 9 is 2nd place, and scores 7 points for their team.
The winners of Matches 10 and 11 are 3rd-4th and score 5.5 points for their teams.
The losers of Matches 10 and 11 are 5th-6th place and score 3.5 points for their teams.
The winner of Match 12 is 7th and scores 2 points for their team.
The loser of Match 12 is 8th and scores 1 point for their team.

The winning team is the team whose combined score of two students is highest. In case of a tie on combined score, the tie-breaker is the team with the highest-scoring individual player.

You can make your predictions here:

https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLScdNfVnydGuoDnyAZohZliNx0oH-fC86KMQq-b5_ZXGvUhhkA/viewform?usp=sf_link

And you can watch the finals live on twitch.tv/chessdojolive on Sat Jan 22 from 9:30 am to 2 pm and Sun Jan 23 from 9 am to 1:30 pm (all times pacific).

Power Rankings:
Mitch's Rankings/Predictions:

A note that I do not entirely expect my power rankings to be the final standings. This is partially due to my opinion that the top 4 contestants are playing each other in round 1, which will make it hard for them to all place top 4. After sharing my power rankings, I will share my thoughts on each of the round 1 matches and things to watch out for.
1. nargaef/morphyfan - I think that Lars has improved a lot this season. He got 4/4 in the initial draft tournament, but I was skeptical of his play in it. Since then, I think that he has become more principled while still keeping his aggressive style. While he did fall 0/2 to rengaw in the exhibition match, he did give toddler odds. Search in the chessdojolive clips library for some funny moments in which his son made sure he would flag (such as licking him, throwing a blanket over his head, etc). I think that Lars has the greatest chance of winning the event, but I do think that we could see anyone come away with it. The field is very close in strength at this point.
2. rengaw - I think that rengaw would have the greatest chance of winning the competition if every round were a single game instead of a match. I think his biggest weakness is his stamina and/or closing out a game with a large advantage. He seems to gain a large advantage often, and can usually convert this, but sometimes (especially in later games in matches) he struggles to close it out.
3. falk312 - I think that falk would be 2nd if he didn't start off playing one of the toughest opponents in the field in round 1. Of the top 4, though, I think he is the least likely not to be top 4, if that makes sense. He seems the most consistent, so I think he will definitely finish top 4.
4. drittman13 - I think drittman has the most variance of the top 4, which is the main reason I am putting him as 4th. I think that in a single isolated game, drittman probably has the best likelihood of producing a brilliant game. However, I worry about his time pressure addiction and what appeared to be tilt in his exhibition match against Seth. He has had 2 weeks to work on that with his coach, though, so I am looking forward to seeing Drittman's full potential this weekend.
5. Seth_Lichtenstein - Seth performed best out of everyone in the competitions and is coming in at 1st seed. I think that he also has the easiest matchup in round 1 in the sense that he is playing one of the newer members of the competition in round 1. I think he has also grown a ton throughout the competition. I rank him 5th more because I think he'd get 5th in a tournament rather than a match format. Given the format, though, I think he will get top 4.
6. ChessNumbers - I think that Tai has the most variance in the competition. I can see him getting 1st and I can also see him getting 8th. He won the tactics competition and is incredibly aggressive. But he also bombed in the endgames challenge, and most of his draft games were losses that were then turned into gifted wins. I can see him taking a game off of anyone in the competition, and maybe the match format will help him score better if he has a lower end game. I had no idea how to rank him to be honest.
7. chessmaestro_2021 - I don't know much at all about maestro or Dai, so I have placed them at the bottom since they've had less time to learn from their coaches.
8. TheEndXx - I don't know much at all about maestro or Dai, so I have placed them at the bottom since they've had less time to learn from their coaches.
Match predictions:
Match 1: Seth 2-0 over chessmaestro
Match 2: morphyfan wins over drittman in overtime
Match 3: ChessNumbers 2-0 over TheEndXx
Match 4: Whoever wins will win in deep overtime. I only slightly give the edge to falk, since I think eventually rengaw will wear down a bit.

David's Rankings/Predictions:

4 events-- a draft tournament, a tactics challenge, an endgame tournament, and an exhibition match plus lesson-- have yielded four different winners so far: Morphyfan, ChessNumbers, drittman, and Seth_Lichtenstein, while the first pick in the draft and the first round of power rankings went to Falk. This field is exceptionally tight, and unpredictable. I've watched this event closely throughout, and have completely failed to predict anything. At this point, I don't even want to do predictions/rankings, which I know will be wrong. But it's my job to do so. So here they are, though I believe they are no more predictive than flipping a coin!

1. Falk - I don't know. He hasn't shown anything great this season, but I guess it's tough to shake your beliefs. Somehow I see him having a 51% chance in rounds 1, 2, and 3, and thus the most likely to win the event! I suppose part of it is nerves. All the players have showed some flashes of brilliance and some great learning, but they have also all showed nerves. And when it comes down to it, I think Falk's nerves are slightly less likely to sabotage him in a must-win game or a tie-breaker.

2. Morphyfan/nargaef - If I was 100% sure morphyfan would play the finals without toddler odds, then I would see him as a slight favorite to make it to the championship match in round 3. However, I think there's a medium chance that he will play a game or two with odds, in which case his chances plummet to next to nothing. This whole field is so close that any edge will be decisive. Overall I think Morphyfan may have-- just barely-- the best overall package of on-the-board chess skills: tactics, strategy, openings, endgames, etc.

3. Rengaw - Rengaw showed great skill in his match with morphyfan, and like everyone in the top 6, I would not be surprised to see him win the whole event. I don't think his chances are less than 49% in any of these matches.

4. Chessnumbers - ChessNumbers has shown throughout the season that he is stronger than I first extrapolated from the stress-filled draft tournament. However, this event here will be the first one that compares to the draft tournament; with thousands of dollars on the line, it will be a new situation for all of these players. He also lost pretty decisively to Falk in the exhibition match, so I've nudged a couple players' chances just above his.

5. drittman13 - drittman has a great attitude towards learning, and has clearly improved on his game. However, we have seen two huge problems that can undermine that in a performance perspective: time trouble and tilt. Right now I'm predicting him to lose his first match and then win the next two, but that will require him to brush off a loss in a way I have not seen him do since the Draft Tournament. Also, if he's under 10 seconds at the end of every game, then Kostya is not the ultimate sensei, even if the final standings say so

6. Seth_Lichtenstein - Seth has shown increasing skill throughout this season, and has been closing the gap in strength between himself and some 100-150 points higher-rated contestants that existed in week 1. If any of these higher-rated opponents blink, tilt, or choke, there's no doubt Seth is prepared to score some upsets and win any match that comes his way. He also earned himself the first seed and will be a favorite to win his first match, and thus get off to a good confident start. The thing is, in the next two rounds, he will play whichever of the top-rated opponents also got off to a good start, and whose nerves will have settled at that point. I think in that situation he will be a tiny underdog. I think because Seth's rating is lower than 6 of the contestants, but he seems to me able to compete on par with them at this point, the most exciting yet plausible finish to the season would be him winning the whole tournament.

7. DaiWynn/TheEndxX - As a replacement, we haven't gotten to see much of Dai, but he's coming in with a higher rating than Maestro, so I'm putting him 7th.

8. chess_maestro2021 - As a replacement, we haven't gotten to see much of Maestro, but he's coming in with a lower rating than Dai, so I'm putting him 8th.

Teams:

My exercise in filling out the bracket gave Team Kostya the highest final score, but since every match was a toss-up, I don't have any faith in this prediction. I'm impressed with the job the coaches have done facilitating the improvement of each of their students, and thus making the job of predicting so difficult. Now I just can't wait to see the matches!!

Let us know in the comments which team you think will win, which teacher's lessons you thought were most effective, and put in your bracket predictions in the form above. See you on Saturday!!

I want to close by acknowledging Chess.com and ChessDojo viewers for contributing large sums to create the prize fund of $4600, which will add to the pressure and excitement this weekend.