Time Frame for Chess Goals and Weekly Time Distribution

     In a recent post where I talked about my chess goals (realistic goal—1800 USCF; ambitious goal—2000 USCF; pipe dream—2200 USCF), I mentioned that the time frame for my goals is about seven to eight years. Here I'll talk about where I got that number.

     GM Andy Soltis wrote a "Chess to Enjoy" column back in the January 1986 issue of Chess Life entitled "You're Never Too Old to Mate." ( http://uscf1-nyc1.aodhosting.com/CL-AND-CR-ALL/CL-ALL/1986/1986_01.pdf ). He offers a compelling argument that: "If you were to chart the rating growth of most players . . . you would find a big jump during the first eight years of tournament play, followed by a very low-rising slope for the next stage of their careers, which may last 20, 30, or 50 years."

     During that final, "low-rising slope," a player probably only gains about another 100 rating points or so. So it's the initial eight-year period that counts the most. What I'll call here a player's "progress clock" begins ticking, according to Soltis, "when you began to read books and to play in tournaments—that is, when you started to take the game seriously." That period of eight years does not seem to be impacted by age. Whenever you start serious chess, that's your start date, regardless of when you learned how to play, or how long you may have played casually.

     So the question is, when did my progress clock start ticking? It's not a straightforward question. I learned chess at seven, played my first tournament at 36, participated in about two tournaments per year for four years, then took a ten-year break from tournament play. I came back just before the pandemic, played a couple tournaments, had an eighteen-month COVID break, and returned with a vengeance this past summer when tournaments restarted.

     I'd like to believe that it has only been since this past summer that I can be considered to be "taking the game seriously." With my upcoming tournament in December, I will have played in nine USCF tournaments in six months—that's more tournaments in six months than I had played in my earlier four-year run from age 36-40. And, since this summer, I have started religiously and vigorously analyzing my own games and working with a chess coach—neither of which I had ever done before.

     I therefore optimistically argue that my progress clock effectively began ticking in June 2021, at age 52. This leaves me about seven-and-a-half years to make meaningful progress toward my chess goals. So my target date for achieving my goals is June 2029, at age 60.

     In closing, here is my chess time distribution for the week – much better than last week's I'm happy to report!