Candidates 2026 in the Multiverse

In a previous blog, I seriously discuss about ways to fix Candidates tournament qualification paths. This time around, we take a casual look into a what if scenario of different lineups in Candidates tournament 2026 open section (without changing pairings/results of previous tournaments). Note that although this is simply for fun, this is supposed to help in a discussion on the candidate selection process (that's why we don't change anything else, and not delve into predictions on the results of the Candidates tournaments in these universes). 

Earth 616 (no change):   Lineup 1
Caruana,          Sindarov, Wei Yi, Esipenko,    Giri, Bluebaum,  Praggnanandhaa,  Nakamura  
(circuit 2024)   (world cup 1st, 2nd & 3rd)      (grand swiss)       (circuit 2025)     (6-m avg rating)    

What if Fide has suddenly decided to change the qualification paths in the open section at the last minute (well, something similar happened in Earth 616 previously) to something similar to the following, and thus ending up with difference lineups.
Grand Swiss 1st and 2nd, 3 spots from 2-year long Fide open circuit, and 3 spots via the rating path provided the player is in top 30 in the circuit.    

Bear in mind that the players have not prepared for the new qualifications paths at all. For instance, in an alternate universe, Fide implemented the 2-year Fide circuit policy right away before waiting for the Candidate tournament to finish. In this alternate universe, the players have expected separate 2024 circuit and 2025 circuit and played in the event with plan to make either circuit and not a combined 2024-25 circuit, thereby shattering the dreams of some players who played actively in only one of the circuits. That being said, if the candidate selection criteria was informed earlier, the lineup in each of these universes would be better than the one we present here, because the players can plan accordingly, and could fight more in events that matter to them. 

Note that replacing 3 spots to Fide circuit 2024-25 (resp. Fide circuit 2025) by 1 spot to Fide circuit 2024 and 2 spots to  Fide circuit 2024-25 (resp. Fide circuit 2025) changes nothing for the lineups below. 

Lineup 2  
Giri, Bluebaum,    Caruana, Abdusattorov, Arjun,       Praggnanandhaa, Firouzja, Wesley So  
(grand swiss)          (2-year fide circuit 2024-25)                      (6-month avg rating)   
  
Lineup 3  
Giri, Bluebaum,    Sindarov,       Caruana, Abdusattorov, Arjun,      Praggnanandhaa, Firouzja  
(grand swiss)   (world cup 1st)     (2-year fide circuit 2024-25)        (6-month avg rating)      
  
Lineup 4  
Giri, Bluebaum,   Praggnanandhaa, Abdusattorov, Caruana,     Arjun, Firouzja, Wesley So  
 (grand swiss)                         (fide circuit 2025)                             (6-month avg rating)   

Lineup 5  
Giri, Bluebaum,   Caruana, Abdusattorov, Arjun,        Keymer, Firouzja, Praggnanandhaa  
(grand swiss)          (2-year fide circuit 2024-25)            (Dec 2025 rating with activity)     

Lineup 6  
Giri, Bluebaum,   Caruana, Arjun, Praggnanandhaa,       Abdusattorov, Sindarov, Nihal  
(grand swiss)                (6-month avg rating)                            (fide circuit 2025)   

Lineup 7  
Giri, Bluebaum,   Caruana, Arjun, Praggnanandhaa,       Abdusattorov, Firouzja, Yakubboev  
(grand swiss)                (6-month avg rating)                         (2-year fide circuit 2024-25)  

Lineup 8 (fide circuit 2025)
 Praggnanandhaa, Abdusattorov, Giri, Caruana, Sindarov, Bluebaum, Arjun, Nihal  
(for 2026, it happens that Lineup 6 = Lineup 8).

Note: I recommend Lineup 2. Lineups 6 and 7 are with a different precedence order which seems less reliable, and that  precedence order is not used by Fide. But, if one wishes to have the selection criteria favor rising players, Lineup 6 could be used instead of Lineup 2. 

Fun facts: Caruana, Abdusattorov, Arjun and Praggnanandhaa are present in all of these lists in the alternate universes (apart from Giri and Bluebaum), whereas Wei Yi is absent in all of them. Also, Firouzja is present in almost all of them. After Firouzja, Wesley So makes more appearances. Keymer, Yakubboev and Nihal are present in exactly one of these lists. R.B. Ramesh's comment that Nihal could make it to Candidates does not seem so far-fetched now. Players in top 15 ratings in April 2026 missing from all these lists (aside from Carlsen, Nakamura and Gukesh): Wei Yi, Duda, and Van Foreest.

Data used include an imaginary Fide 2024-25 circuit complied from 2024 and 2025 circuits published by Fide. The compiled file (and data used for it) are available here (google drive link).

For serious discussion on the candidate selection criteria, I recommend to comment in the blog How to fix Candidates Tournament?