Chasing the Candidates: The High-Stakes Race of the FIDE Circuit
Gukesh's recent victory as the youngest World Chess Champion at the age of 18, after beating Ding Liren 7.5-6.5 in a dramatic final game, has sent shockwaves through the world of chess. As we look ahead to the end of 2024, the question on everyone's lips is: "Who will win the 2024 FIDE Circuit?" Let's delve a little deeper into this topic.
Table Of Contents:
- What is the FIDE Circuit?
- How do players earn Circuit Points?
- Who are the players who still have a chance to win?
- My Predictions
- Conclusion
The FIDE Circuit is a one-year competition that tracks how well chess players perform in different international tournaments. The player with the most points at the end of the year is named the most consistent and successful player of the year. Players earn points based on how they do in different types of tournaments, like classical, rapid, and blitz.
The FIDE Circuit makes chess more exciting and also helps players get into the World Chess Championship cycle. The player who comes top in the end gets a spot in the Candidates Tournament, which is a big deal for any chess player who wants to challenge the current world champion.
What makes the FIDE Circuit so interesting is that it is both inclusive and competitive. Unlike in other tournaments, players can win points in all kinds of events, from elite invitationals to open tournaments. This means that players of all levels, from beginners to grandmasters, can compete and earn points. The mix of classical, rapid, and blitz formats tests players' adaptability, stamina, and strategic depth, making the Circuit a measure of skill and resilience. For fans, it creates a year-long story full of drama, surprise results, and the excitement of watching players compete for one of the most important spots in chess.
How Do Players Earn Circuit Points?
To understand how players earn points based on their results in the FIDE Circuit, we need to do some calculations and get some more information.
Players earn points in the FIDE Circuit through a well-defined system that takes into account their performance, tournament strength and format. Base points are awarded based on a player's finish in eligible tournaments: the top 8 finishers in Swiss System events, the top 3 finishers in Round Robin events, and players who reach the later stages of Knockout tournaments. For example, a first place finish in a tournament is worth 10 points, while an outright win (no ties) is worth 11 points. The points for other positions decrease incrementally, so that second place is worth 8 points, third 7, and so on. This ensures that consistent high finishes are rewarded, even if a player does not win every event.
The formula for calculating FIDE Circuit points is as follows:
The Strength Factor reflects the average rating of the top participants in the tournament, calculated as (TAR - 2500) ÷ 100, where TAR is the Tournament Average Rating. The weighting coefficient varies depending on the tournament format: classical events have the highest weighting (1.0), while rapid (0.6) and blitz (0.4) events have a lower weighting. Prestigious tournaments such as the World Chess Championship have a coefficient of 2.0, while the World Rapid and Blitz Championships have a coefficient of 0.8. This system ensures that players are rewarded not only for their results, but also for playing in strong and important events.
Who are the players who still have a chance to win?
Now that we have a good understanding of how the FIDE Circuit works, let's talk about who are the players who still have a chance of winning the event and earning a place in the 2026 Candidates Tournament.
A quick calculation shows us that winning the World Rapid Chess Championship with a score of 11/11, which is almost impossible, gives the winner 25.48 Circuit points. Taking this into account, it is mathematically possible to qualify by winning both events, but practically we can exclude everyone but the top 3 in the current ranking. The three remaining are Nodirbek Abdusattorov, Erigaisi Arjun and Fabiano Caruana.
#3 - Nodirbek Abdusattorov (108.49)
Uzbek grandmaster Nodirbek Abdusattorov, born on 18 September 2004, is one of the most talented chess players in the world. He became a grandmaster at the age of 13, which is already an extraordinary achievement, but he cemented his place among the world's elite in 2021 when he won the World Rapid Chess Championship by defeating Magnus Carlsen. His victory made him one of the youngest World Rapid Champions in history and brought worldwide attention to his incredible skills.
Nodirbek has won this event before and is one of the big favourites to win it again. The only thing holding him back is his huge disadvantage behind Arjun and Caruana. If Nodirbek had around 120 points, he would be a real rival to the two above, but considering that Fabiano and Arjun are also likely to get points, the 20 point deficit is almost impossible to overcome. Still, I expect him to fight and give it his best shot.
#2 - Erigaisi Arjun (124.40)
Arjun Erigaisi's story is truly inspiring. Born in India in 2003, Arjun's meteoric rise began when he became a grandmaster at the age of 14. He was the one Indian prodigy who had the worst chances, as he was not invited to many prestigious tournaments. Despite this, Arjun did some remarkable work and by playing in open tournaments he slowly but surely rose to the top.
The real breakthrough came when Arjun broke the 2800 barrier, the second Indian to do so, and became the fourth highest rated player in classical chess. The work that Arjun has done to earn his 124.40 Circuit Points is extremely impressive. Arjun has a very unique style of play. If you start analysing his games with a chess engine, you will get extremely confused. Arjun is a player whose games cannot be analysed by modern computers. He always looks for complications and plays extremely sharp lines. One mistake and the game is over. I'm expecting a real fight from him and I can see him on the podium at the World Rapid and Blitz Championships.
#1 - Fabiano Caruana (130.42)
Of these three players, Fabiano Caruana is without a doubt the one with the most experience and the most knowledge. He was a finalist in the 2018 World Chess Championship against Magnus Carlsen, and he was the only person to have not lost a single classical game against him in their match. Despite losing in rapid tiebreaks, Caruana is still considered the second best player behind Carlsen.
To be fair, it is no surprise that he has the most circuit points of these three. He has been playing the game for decades, and his experience and hard work have paid off. He is someone whose results are almost always consistent. He rarely loses and plays fantastically. My guess is that he will not try to push during these tournaments, but he will play solid games and try to keep his advantage ahead of the two prodigies.
Now let's talk about my predictions. Although I like all three players, my prediction will be very objective. Practically speaking, I would take Nodirbek Abdusattorov out of the race, as a 20 point deficit is too much to overcome.
As for the other two, the question is very complex. There is no doubt that Arjun has worked much harder than Fabiano to get a place in the 2026 Candidates Tournament, but it seems that Caruana is still not letting himself be overtaken by the youngsters.
I expect blood from these tournaments and a formidable fight from them. I'm sure Arjun won't miss any opportunity and will try to press in every game. Nevertheless, I can't see Caruana failing to make the top 8 in the events, which would virtually guarantee his victory over Arjun. I therefore see Fabiano winning, but I think it will be very close.
Wow, did you actually make it to the end? Congratulations if you did, and thanks for reading the post! I hope you enjoyed my blog about the 2024 FIDE Circuit! Who do you think will be the winner of the FIDE Circuit 2024?
This will be the end of this blog and my last blog in 2024. Any feedback is welcome! Again, thanks for reading, and until next time, I am out of here.
