My Prediction of the 2024 Chess Olympiad

The 2024 Chess Olympiad will be held in Budapest from 10 to 23 September. By their nature, Chess Olympiads are chess festivals that bring together nations, amateurs, professionals, men and women. The host is a country with a very rich history and I'm sure that the organization of the event is going to be phenomenal and a highlight of 2024. Today I've decided to tell my readers who my favorites are for the event.  Which team do I most want to win the tournament?

For those who don't know, the Chess Olympiad is the most prestigious team event in the world, where people from different countries try to play their best chess in order to make their country proud. This year we have 197 teams competing in the open event and 184 in the women. This means that over 1800 players will be representing their country at the 45th Chess Olympiad. 

The tournament will be organized in the form of an 11-round Swiss system competition. The thinking time for each player in every game is 90 minutes for the first 40 moves, followed by an additional 30 minutes after the 40th move. Additionally, starting from the first move, each player receives an increment of 30 seconds per move. A draw agreement is only allowed after the 30th move.

A team can enter five players, four of whom will play in each round. In each round, the players will sit at the board according to the board order submitted before the start of the tournament.

Before we get to the predictions, I want to make it clear that I have nothing against any of the teams and that my predictions won't be based on personal opinion. Are you ready? Let's start.

I am going to talk only about the open section of the event and I will list my predictions about the top 10 teams that can win the olympiad.

You will be able to find the list of the teams here.

#10 - Poland

The Polish team led by world number 18 Jan-Krzysztof Duda are the tenth favorites to win the olympic gold in my point of view. With an average rating of 2662 this team is definitely one that shouldn't be underestimated. In 2022 their performance was not phenomenal. Duda played only 5 games and has made 2.5 points in them. From a player of his quality people generally expect more. Duda isn't in great form now either. He has just played in the Akiba Rubinstein Memorial tournament where he scored 5 points out of 9, and despite beating the tournament winner Vincent Keymer in the last round he didn't show his extraordinary chess skills. Poland's board 3 was also playing in that tournament and finished with 5 draws and 4 losses. The Olympiad starts soon, so it's still time to recover from them, and I hope this team will show us, how good they really are.

#9 - Norway

Despite having the 6th highest average rating and having Magnus Carlsen on the first board, Norway winning the olympiad is very unlikely. Even if Magnus had perfect results on board 1, it still wouldn't be enough. The second board player of Norway, Johan-Sebastian Christhiansen is almost 200 points lower rated then the first board player, and this very unbalanced team is very unlikely going to do magic. The majority of the teams are extremely balanced and will likely have good results against the other boards. Magnus is unlikely to win the Olympiad with sixth seed Norway (although the team finished fifth in 2016), but he might be able to win an individual gold on top board.

I’ve never won an individual gold medal in the Olympiad, so that would be something quite important to me.

Magnus Carlsen

#8 - Germany

The German national team is a team that isn't really a competitor for the gold medal, but it has chances to a silver or bronze. With GM Vincent Keymer on board 1, who has just won the Akiba Rubistein Memorial and won a few rating points, this team looks really interesting. The team is very balanced and has the potential of drawing or even beating the top seeds of the event. The Germans look like a well-prepared team. Looking forward to see their games.

#7 - Iran

Iran's national team is definitely underrated. All of their players are very talented, and they work really-really hard. The players on board one and two, Parham Maghsoodloo and Amin Tabatabaei will definitely get some points for the team. Maghsoodloo is a very hard-working person and he doesn't think about luck. We can't be sure about how Iran will do, but they are definitely a dark horse. The one thing I know for sure is that Maghsoodloo will wear his sleevless jackets again. He was wearing them since he was 10 and he had bad results when he did not wear it.

#6 - Netherlands

Despite having Anish Giri on the first board I definitely do not consider the Dutch to play for a medal. Their team is pretty decent and they might be able to finish in the top 10, but they won't be able to compete with teams like the US or India. The Dutch national team is the 4th seed in the event with an average rating of 2687. I would be surprised if I saw the Netherlands in the top 3, but who knows.

#5 - Hungary

Being the hosts is always an advantage in Olympiads. I think Hungary, after many years finally has the chance to become a medalist in the 2024 Chess Olympiad. After Rapport came back to Hungary, Peter Leko also decided to play. Hungary is a team which will perform either very well or very poorly at this Olympiad. Rapport is in form, which is a good sign for the Hungarians. The question is if Leko can pull up a good performance or not. He has retired and he didn't play chess for a very long time, so he is either going to destroy everyone or lose a lot, because he's not in form. Sanan is a great player, I think he won't have too many problems, same for our board 4. I'm looking forward to see what the Hungarian national team can do.

#4 - China

I might get criticised about this choice, but I think China is not a team that will finish in the Top 3 this year. Wei Yi is the only Chinese player who is in form. Ding Liren, the current World Champion is not even the highest rated player in China, but he will be the one playing on the first board, I assume to get some practice for the upcoming World Chess Championship in Singapore. If DIng somehow finds his form, then I should regret what I said about the Chinese National Team, but in their current situation, putting them as them as the 4th seed is very sensible.

#3 - Uzbekistan

I am putting the reigning champions as the third seed for the event. They are definitely a team, which can win a medal. In 2022 they had some luck helping them as well, but their performance there was phenomenal. The Uzbek's are all very young and energetic players. This is the reason why I put them in front of China. Their players show extraordinary preparation and their energetic style makes them a very competitive team. I'm guessing that they will earn the bronze medal, but it is also possible for them to go higher.

#2 - United States

For most of you, this could be a surprise as well. I have intentionally made the US Team second on my list because I feel like they don't have the quality what it takes to win the Olympiad anymore. Their players are getting older and they might not be able to compete with the younger generation. I was very surprised about how the American team looks like. Personally I really miss Nakamura and Hans Niemann from their team. If they had these two, the US would probably be the first seed on my list.

#1 - India

Yes, in my opinion India is the team that has the most chance to win the Olympiad. With World Champion Challenger Gukesh D on board 1, Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu on board two, world number 4 Arjun on board three and Vidit Gujarathi on board four, this team looks invincible. I assume Gukesh is playing on board 1 instead of Arjun because he wants to have some practice against higher rated players before the World Chess Championship, like Ding Liren. In 2022 Gukesh started the Olympiad with 8/8 and went on to take individual gold on board one! His defeat in round 9 against Nodirbek Abdusattorov was a painful one, but Gukesh didn't let this ruin his career. Has India's time come?

Conclusion

Wow, did you really make it to the end? Congrats, if you did, and thank you for viewing this blog! I hope you enjoyed my blog. Feel free to share your opinion about the Chess Olympiad in the comment section. This blog was supposed to come out earlier, but I'm happy to have it done with 30 minutes before the start of round one!

This is will be an end to this blog, but you will be seeing from me soon, as BlogChamps Season 7 begins! Again, thank you for reading this blog, and stay tuned for my upcoming works! 

Regards, 

David