Guess the move: The entire thought process, move by move annotation.
I write in detail my thought process through the exercise, and it is the same thought process I use in my games. The only thing missing is all of my calculation done in my mind, because I don't want to spill several lines of nonsense. I include mostly the crucial calculations.
Starting on move:11
Starting position: Material is Even.
Development: White still needs to castle and find a spot for the light squared bishop. While black's lightsquared bishop, is going to have a hard time being activated, since any b pawn maneuver will weaken the c6 pawn, which is on the half open file, and White's rook is ready to rock. There is the pin/skewer on the a5-e1 diagonal.
Pawn Structure: White has the extra central pawn, and a mighty pawn chain from f2-d4. White has a queenside minority, and therefore, should probably focus his attention on creating a weakness for black's queenside with a minority attack.
Files/Squares: The half open c-file is a file white shall use in the future. the c5 and e5 squares are strong squares for white as well.
Space: White has more space due to his pawn structure, meanwhile, black has no pawns beyond the 6th rank.
Safety: White still needs to castle before undergoing serious operations or plans.
White Goal: White needs to clear the pin and skewer from black's queen and bishop and castle. Then, attempt a minority attack to weaken black's queenside structure.
Black's Goal: Black should break down white's pawn structure, or, make an all out assault on g2 and g2 while white attempts to create queenside weaknesses. However, the current position lends itself to stunting white's ability to accomplish much with the pin. Black should try to get as much done as possible before white clears it.
Move 11: I'm looking at a quiet move, like Be2. Maybe Be3. I like Be3, because it's more advanced, but an eventual black ...e5 would have to be dealt with immediately if pushed by black to prevent the fork on e4. For safety's sake, I like Be2 since it allows me to castle.
11.a3! (I thought this lost a pawn due to 11...Bxc3 12.bxc3, Qxa3.), Bxc3
12.bxc3, Qxa3 (I was exactly correct. It seems that white is going to attempt to use the initiative created by the open queenside space to attack pawns and pieces, provoking an inferior structure from black. Also note, now white has the bishop pair.
Move 13: Once again, I need to finish my develpment as white. Now, the pin/skewer situation has been resolved at the cost of a pawn, so that is good. Now I must make my king safe and connect my rooks so I can begin my queenside assault. My move, again, 13. Be2.
13. e4! (It seems white is trying to establish a superior center!! A spacial advantage vs black's cramped structure.),Ne7.
Move 14: Now, most definitely should come Bd3, this supports white's center and prepares kingside castling. Black is going to attempt to push an e5 or c5 to break down black's center. Also possible is e5, but I feel that is overreaching for white when he's not particularly developed. For instance, it leaves a hole on Nd5! and black's night becomes powerful, and then the other knight to b6 and he can hold the knight there. Black makes the Nb6 move after c6! removing white's ability to later play c4! kicking out the knight on d5. Black would also be opening up his pawns and removing white's spacial advantage.
Move 15: This move does superficially attack the bishop on h4, but I think the main focus is on the e5 square to support the e5 push. My first instinct is to pull the bishop to g3, but after 15.Bg3, e5! I fear for white's structure, a series of exchanges 16 Nxe5, Nxe5 17.Bxe5, Nxe5 18.dxe5, and white's structure has been effectively destroyed and becomes a weak target after black's 18...Re1. For this reason, I suggest 15. e5! and Black is going to have to make chances on the d5 square and the c5 push. The only other resonable move would be 15.Bg3, e5! and 16. 0-0. maintaining the pawn 'duo' on d4 and e4 after black exchanges.
15. Bg3, e5
16. 0-0 (As suggested), Re1
Move 17: I really imagine exd4 at this point. Maybe black is planning exd4 then f4? trying to break down the e4 pawn. or possibly exd4 with c5, then b6 and Bb7. c6 really worries me. Through calculating I don't see a way around white being forced to play d5 or exchanging the d4 pawn, giving black two passed pawns. At this point I believe my understanding or at least my ability to find out what to do next becomes extremely taxed. I am imagining things from Ra1 to Rfe1. Rfe1 seems lazy to me and does not address the c6 push, and Ra1 seems like a weak queen chasing move, but it may be exactly what the doctor ordered as far as taking care of the queenside pawns is concerned, white may have to start bearing down on them right now with Ra1.
17. Re1!! (The lazy move, lol), Qa5? (Possibly attempting to force a queen exchange, since black is up in material.)
Move 18: Black wants to play exd4 so white then replies cxd4 and black exchanges queens for a good endgame. My first thoughts? This is the perfect opportunity for moves like Ra1! because the rooks can control both the a AND the b file, thereby removing the queen from that sector of the board completely and finally getting "pressure" (a.k.a. some influence on the extra queenside pawns) that is so badly needed. Meanwhile, white's center will retain at least the e4 pawn.
18.Qb2(avoiding the exchange), Qd8.
Move 19: Black appears to be planning to push his queenside pawns since his assult on the center has not been entirely successful. I still see c6! for black though, and assume the e4 pawn will eventually be the only remaining white pawn. White needs to act on the queenside, and prepare to defend the e4 pawn. Suddenly, I have had a complete change of heart right now. My analysis has changed. Why am I worried about c6?? White's response: d5! takes care of everything with a spacial advantage! and finally securing the central formation. Now I say Re2. Re2 is great for doubling the rooks on whatever file you need and still maintaining the prophylactix Rc1 bishop for any exchanges made that might open up the c file and then the g3 rook and the c1 file work together!! I suggest: Re2
19.Bb1, a5 (The queenside push)
Move 20: The bishop is going to go to a2. Why? Maybe to block the a pawn, maybe to pin the f pawn.
And I finally grew tired of the exercise.