This template, I consider myself average at. I lose some, I win some. Andy903 is a more consistent player than I am, so he deserved the win.
His sixth and seventh picks, the ones he received, are decent counters to the rest of my position. I suspected Tripolis and somewhat guessed at Syria, but I now see that my position would have been well served if I had stacked into Judea turn three, instead of spending so much attention on Africa/Tripolis. His first and second picks, while a bit strange in the first few turns, were very useful long-term with Northern Gaul next door and Northern Italy.
So, in review, my picks were worse long-term and combined with poor predictions on turns 3 and four, were enough for me to lose. Some smaller mistakes happen later in the game (moving into Creta instead of stacking towards Northern Gaul for example) but by then the game was probably over.