Caruana - Who'd have guessed?
The chess world is watching in awe as Fabiano "the fabulous" Caruana is crushing in the Sinquefield cup. With a perfect score after seven rounds, his achievement is already historical. Who would have thought this would happen. Well, as it turns out, yours truly predicted something like this (albeit in vague terms) almost two years ago. Based on expert knowledge of chess? No. Based on careful analyses of Caruana's games? No. Based on statistics!
In this post, I wrote the following.
I messed around with some
I haven't checked to see if the model is still valid, but I think it's kinda cool to see that my prediction holds, although it is only based on the rating history of the players.