Towards a new Maunder minimum, Dalton minimum or just the end of cycle 23?
I was interested in solar cycles as I thought there may be a link between solar activity and political and economic unrest. I 've been watching the Sun for a while now, and I noticed no sunspots on the sun for a month. Why is the sun so quiet? Well, I'm far from being an expert on the subject and so I did some reading on the net.
What is the Maunder minimum?
http://science.jrank.org/pages/4184/Maunder-Minimum.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_minimum (wiki bulls**t??)
I found a similar blog here
http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/02/13/where-have-all-the-sunspots-gone/
and here
http://theglobalwarmingheretic.wordpress.com/2008/02/16/where-have-all-the-sunspots-gone//
Indeed, very interesting. The result? Icecap growth in the Artic (at a time when Global warming is supposed to be shrinking the ice cap.
http://www.icecap.us/
The results of a Maunder minimum?http://www.kolumbus.fi/tilmari/some200.htm
My theory about political unrest?
http://www.carolmoore.net/articles/sunspot-cycle.html
However, pass a big pinch of salt because
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/cosmos/solarwind/Sunspot_Cycles_Influence_Human_History.htm
Predicts a recession in 2006 and it's 2008 and we didn't have a recession then , but it looks almost certain now.
Solar cycle 24 officially started, with a big bang ending solar cycle 23, but it seems solar cycle 23 has come back, like a bad penny.
Nasa say its not something unusual,
http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml
And I'll have to admit while trawling the internet I came across all kinds of claims, from 'the Sun's nuclear fuel is running out and it will expand' to 'A new Maunder minimum is certain' (it probably is, but certain when?)
So whats happening?
Well in France, we've had cold and wet summers 2007 and 2008 and if one looks at the data for sunshine hours a peak can be noted in 2005/2006 with a lot less hours this and last year(source meteo France click onhttp://france.meteofrance.com/frhttp://www.chess.com/img/li-arrow-white-down.gif) no-repeat scroll center top;"> and click on
ensoleillement) and the last ten years figures for Rennes show this
2008 thus far 1276 (hours of sunshine)
2007 1709
2006 1748
2005 1842
2004 1741
2003 2007(year of heat wave) http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/3156853.stm
2002 1655
2001 1736
2000 1552
1999 1561
This shows an increase from 1999 to 2001, a blip , an increase,a decrease, a blip in fact, it shows not much...
Is the rainfall due to the volcanic eruption earlier this year in Chile?
http://geology.com/events/chaiten-volcano/chaiten-first-eruption-ash-plume-750.jpg
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/americas/05/06/chile.volcano/index.html?iref=newssearch
Are we heading for Eighteen hundreed and froze to death version 2?
http://www.mitosyfraudes.org/Calen/Year1816.html
If the sun doesn't produce a spot sometime soon, I think a minimum could be possible.
My prediction?
A cold winter (Really, amazing, winters are usually hot :))
In 1963, the sea froze in northern europe, and the Loire froze at Ancenis
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_of_1963
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/education/secondary/students/winter.html#coldest
My guess? Colder than that, and then some. or not. Interstingly, cycle 19 ended in 64
http://icecap.us/images/uploads/SOLAR_CYCLE_LENGTH_SUNPSOT_NUMBERS_AND_TEMPERATURES.pdf/SOLAR_CYCLE_LENGTH_SUNPSOT_NUMBERS_AND_TEMPERATURES.pdf
Predctions for the future show that the future is grim(don't they always:))
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2006/10may_longrange.htm
and thats from Nasa.
or is it grim?
http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2006/sunspot.shtml
here "The scientists expect the cycle to begin in late 2007 or early 2008, which is about 6 to 12 months later than a cycle would normally start"
And back to wiki again
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_variation#Solar_variation_theory
More ideas here
http://spaceweb.oulu.fi/~kalevi/publications/non-refereed2/ESA_SP477_lostcycle.pdf
and for the history of it all
http://www.oa.uj.edu.pl/~michalec/history.html
Is global warming a myth? Well , human activity is having an effect on the climate, thats sure, but the Sun probably has an effect too.
http://www.global-warming-and-the-climate.com/abrupt-climate-change-action.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_cooling
I may or may not agree with the views expressed in the links in this blog.
How does the sun affect human behavoir?
http://sidis.net/Revolution.htm
Is the sun broken? Is this the Gore minimum?
Now I know why we used to worship the sun.
Is this all internet 'g force' or is it real?
What's your opinion?
As for me I think global warming and global cooling both occur, but I don't know why (man?earth's rotation? too many pies? you tell me!)
It's truly amazing the stuff you find on the internet:)
Update (16:08:08) still no sunspots since 20th July and counting. Already Dr David Hathaway from NASA has changed his ideas http://gammaray.nsstc.nasa.gov/colloquia/abstracts_summer06/presentations/Hathaway.pdf on the upcoming solar cycle (and he's the expert). Scientists now predict sunspots could dissapear altogether in 2015....http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/06/02/livingston-and-penn-paper-sunspots-may-vanish-by-2015/ of course all this panic started way back here
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/ray-of-hope-can-the-sun-save-us-from-global-warming-762878.html
The sun's been quiet for a long time. I wonder what the link between war and solar cycles is? Another interesting thought?
http://www.prisonplanet.com/dearth-of-sunspot-activity-to-herald-new-ice-age.html
it looks increasingly likely we will have a few cld winters.
This is science at its best. Not dogma, but argument.
Even better is this
http://environment.newscientist.com/article/mg19926734.700-should-naples-fear-a-big-bang-from-vesuvius.html Which predicts a volcanic eruption..... Sulphate aerosol veils and here comes the 'Volcanic winter' In fact, solar minimums can cause increased volcanic activity.http://www.unisci.com/stories/20022/0613022.htm
The amont of CO2 produced by man probably did heat up the world, but the sun's cylce will also affect us, as will volcanoes and other natural disasters.
The sunspots come, the sunspots go.
the picture from
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/09/22/new-cycle-24-sunspot/
Shows we're in a blue period.
ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/STP/SOLAR_DATA/SUNSPOT_NUMBERS/MONTHLY
ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/STP/SOLAR_DATA/SUNSPOT_NUMBERS/SMOOTHED.PLT
This shows 1954 being a lower year than 2007, after that,
we go back to 1933, 1934 and then 1923
These figures show some patterns.
At the moment we have been below 23
spots for 36 months
and the last time we saw this was in
when 45 months were below 23,
from January 1931 until February 1935
We had 50 months like this from November
1910 until December 1914
And from January 1807 until January 1815.
The big data set that hits me is from March
1790 until August 1835
with no figures above 100.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/pubs/solanki2004/fig3a.jpg
The image shows some analysis, and look at the blue....
This worries me now,
given the short life span of current sunspots.
Are we heading for a 'super minima'?
I think what happens all depends
on the next maximum. If it's weak,
it's going get cold.
The headlines and speculations are far from ’solid’ science and the
speculations about the Sun are the reason behind the traffic. Is it
another Dalton or Maunder? Were sunspots really the key figure, or was
the Mount Tambora eruption also a factor ? The colomn height seems to
be significant if you look at the site http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Tambora .
My feeling on these sunspots or lack of them is that yes they are a
factor and yes it’s interesting but I don’t think it’s a simple “low
sunspots = cold weather” connection, I feel there are a lot of
factors(including greenhouse gases, ozone,earth’s orbit, sun’s orbit,
precession,etc)
What's your take on this controversial issue?
Update... The sun has produced spotlets and spots which appear and then dissapear very quickly.
