Pruess Predicts Final Battle Royale

Pruess Predicts Final Battle Royale

SFMechanics
SFMechanics
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Here are my predictions for this week's final Battle Royale. I expect things to be very close, especially between 3rd-5th places. I don't have time to explain my method in detail, but the "accurate" rating weighs the player's real rating and their PCL performance rating, with PCL weighted more heavily if they have played a lot, and weighted very lightly or not at all, if they have played little or none.

Player names in bold are those who have played little in PCL and are the key question for their teams.
1. Destiny Official Rating "Accurate"
Preotu is a question mark, but they have three top performers. With Gorovets on 3 this would be one of the top 2-3 lineups in the Pacific.
Jeffery Xiong 2651 2739
Conrad Holt 2561 2587
Razvan Preotu 2513 2527
Zhu Jiner 2364 2474
2522.25 2581.75
2. Pandas Official Rating "Accurate"
I expect Li Di will perform 2600+ again, but they will fall half a point behind Dallas, but ahead of the group from 3-5th.
Wang Yue 2681 2704
Xu Xiangyu 2586 2569.5
Li Di 2464 2583
Zhai Mo 2351 2361
2520.5 2554.375
3. Mechanics Official Rating "Accurate"
Bartek is the Mechanics question mark, but my research says he'll be an asset ;-) Naroditsky, Zierk, and Hong all have lower performances in the first couple weeks of the season, so they are currently doing even better than "accurate" suggests.
Danya 2615 2678
Steven 2506 2546
Bartek 2502 2525
Andrew 2357 2394
2495 2535.75
4. Blizzard Official Rating "Accurate"
Blizzard have always done relatively better in Battle Royales. Henriques is their ?: he only played once before, a battle royale where he did great. Bartholomew had 6.5/7 last time. They will overperform again.
Corrales 2539 2540
Henriquez 2519 2547
Tang 2489 2548
Bartholomew 2439 2434.5
2496.5 2517.375
5. Kangaroos Official Rating "Accurate"
This lineup looks scary strong, but the Blizzard and Mechanics have both played a bit better in the past couple weeks, and in the two previous Battle Royales, so while I could see a 3-way tie, if I had to pick an order, it would be SF or Minn to get half a point more. All 3 of these teams should be in the 14.5-15.5 point range-- very close.
Sarana 2634 2680
Smirnov 2549 2633
Daniel Fernandez 2472 2471
Raymond Song 2305 2483
2490 2566.75
6. Hackers Official Rating "Accurate"
Aleskerov is a big question mark. For them to move up the ranks, he will have to score a few points to help Mamedyarov and Safarli. I have to guess that Hackers won't do great on boards 3+4.
Mamedyarov 2700 2719
Safarli 2676 2729
Aleskerov 2315 2315
Ravuri 2050 2270
2435.25 2508.25
7. Seattle Official Rating "Accurate"
Seattle could score around 14/28 if their top 3 do well and their bd 4 scores 0/7. But that's about the upper limit for them, and things won't necessarily go well for all 3 of their top guns on the same day.
Naka 2700 2812
Mikhalevski 2565 2569
Margvelashvili 2530 2562
Mayer 2000 1737
2448.75 2420
8 San Diego Official Rating "Accurate"
Brown 2524 2387
Bryant 2453 2396
Hilby 2420 2430
Shlyakhtenko 2162 2182
2389.75 2348.75

If everything goes this way, the Pandas will probably hold onto first place over the Destiny by about 1.5-2 points, while the Kangaroos will keep their 4th place playoff spot by 6-10 points over the Mechanics.

Want to see how things actually shake out? You can watch live on chess.com/tv at 5:30 pm pacific tonight, or see our SF Mechanics perspective at www.twitch.tv/dpruess