Making a Mathematic Point-Based System to Predict the Next Chess World Champion

The 2024 world chess championship is set to begin on November the 25th, 2024. With less than a month to go, chess fans around the world have one burning question: Who will win? I have invented a mathematical, statistical point-based method to have a better chance at answering this question in advance. Read on to discover more about this year's Chess world championship, the methodology for my prediction system and a couple historical matches where it would have correctly predicted the winner. Finally, we will discuss whether or not this prediction system projects Ding Liren or Gukesh Dommaraju to win the 2024 world chess championship.

The Chess World Championship

History

Chess has had a world champion dating all the way back to 1886. However, the current governing body of Chess around the globe (FIDE) has not always been the sole governing body for Chess World Championship matches. From 1993 to 2006, the Professional Chess Association (PCA) was presiding over entirely separate chess world championships. Due to FIDE and PCA having separate world championships, there were two different chess world champions during the aforementioned 13 year period.

Eventually, in 2006, Vladimir Kramnik became both the FIDE world champion and the PCA world champion. Ever since then, there has only ever been one chess world champion at a time.

Format

Shockingly, the chess world championship determines the chess world champion. The person with the highest Elo is not made chess world champion. Theoretically, you could be the lowest rated player in the world and the chess world champion concurrently. So, to all of you 400s, have hope! You could technically become the chess world champion!

Anyways, there will be 14 classical (very long) games in the 2024 chess world championship. If either player gains more than seven points (7.5) across those 14 games, then they are crowned as the next chess world champion. No draw can be agreed to within the first 40 moves of the game.

If both players score seven points out of 14, then the world championship match goes into tiebreaks. Tiebreaks start off with four rapid games. Whoever wins the majority of those rapid matches wins the world championship. And if those rapid matches end up tied, then blitz games are played to decide the winner.

Players

This year's chess world championship will occur in Singapore and it has a prize fund of $2.5 MILLION USD. The two players competing in the 2024 world championship are Ding Liren and Gukesh Dommaraju. Ding is the current world champion and Gukesh is the challenger.

Ding Liren

Grandmaster Ding Liren was born on the 24th of October, 1992, in Wenzhou China. Ding Liren got second place in the 2022 FIDE Candidates Tournament. Normally, only the winner of the candidates gets to play in the chess world championship match. However, Ding managed to qualify for the world championship when Magnus Carlsen decided he didn't want to be world champion any longer.

In the world championship match of 2023, Ding Liren took on the Russian Grandmaster Ian Nepomniachtchi. After 14 classical games, both players had earned seven points. In tiebreaks, Ding was able to beat Ian in the following rapid game with black to become the 17th world champion.

More recently, Ding Liren got 8th place out of ten competitors in the 2023 Superbet Chess Classic. In that tournament, he had six draws, two losses and zero wins. After that, Ding stopped playing chess for 6 or so months.

After coming back to the game, he played in a Chess 960 tournament called the Freestyle Chess G.O.A.T. Challenge and drew one game, lost six, and won none in the round-robin section. Reportedly, Ding also told Chess.Com that he was lacking motivation and that he had "undisclosed health issues".

Shortly after Ding became world champion, his classical Elo was 2789. In the time since, his rating has fallen all the way down 2728.

Magnus recently said of Ding:

The question is whether he is sort of permanently broken from the last world championship that he played... I think there is a chance that Ding is not going to come back to the same level that he was at his peak around 2018-2019.

-Sigma GOAT Magnus Carlsen

Source for the info on Ding: "Carlsen Fears Ding Is 'Permanently Broken', Hails Gukesh After Candidates Win"

Gukesh Dommaraju

Gukesh Dommaraju was born on the 29th of May, 2006 in Chennai, India. He is only 18 and is approximately 14 years younger than Ding. Gukesh achieved the Grandmaster title in 2019 when he was only 12.

Gukesh won the 2024 FIDE Chess Championship and earned the right to challenge Ding. Gukesh got first place in the candidates with a score of 9 out of 14. He had eight draws, one loss and five wins.

In the last round of the candidates, Gukesh had a score of 8.5 and he had to play against GM Hikaru Nakamura who had a score of 8. Hikaru had the white pieces and Gukesh was playing with black. If Hikaru won, he would win the candidates. However, Gukesh managed to draw the match and that won him the 2024 FIDE Chess Championship.

Gukesh currently has a classical FIDE rating of 2783, which is 55 points higher than Ding's Elo.

My Prediction System

My prediction system is not based off judgment or the predictions of others. There is no subjectivity to it. Instead, it gives the current world champion and the challenger points for statistics like Elo, Elo change, incumbency and more.

This system is only functional if there is a reigning world champion and a challenger. This means that it would not have been able to predict the results of the 2023 chess world championship given that both contestants in it were challengers.

Anyways, the system awards points to both the current world champion and the challenger. Whoever has the most points is projected to become the next chess world champion. If there is a tie, the player who currently has the highest rapid Elo wins.

Please note that WC is an abbreviation for either world championship or world champion depending on the context. No, it is not an abbreviation for water closet! Goofy Brits

Without further ado, here is the system for awarding points to each contestant:

Potential Points for the Current World Champion (1 point minimum)

• Whoever is the current WC automatically gets 1 point.
• If the current WC gained Elo since the last WC began, then they get 1 point. If they've gained 20 or more Elo since the last WC, then they get 2 points instead.
• If the current WC won the previous WC before tiebreaks and by two or more games, then they get 1 point. If they won the previous WC before tiebreaks and by four or more games instead, then get 2 points.
• If the challenger lost 10 or more Elo within the last 365 days, then the current WC gets 1 point. If they lost 25+ Elo within that timespan instead, then the current WC earns 2 points instead.

Potential Points for Challenger

• If the current WC has lost Elo since the last WC began, then the challenger is rewarded with 1 point. If the current WC has lost 20+ Elo since then, then the challenger gets 2 points instead.
• If the challenger won the candidates tournament by one or more games, then they get 1 point. If they won the candidates by two or more games, then they earn 2 points instead.

Points that Could Go Either Way

• Whichever candidate has a higher FIDE rating (Elo) gets 1 point. If one player has an Elo that is 20+ points higher than the other player, they earn 2 points instead. If their Elo is 50 or higher than the other player, they are rewarded with 3 points instead.
• If either player has played less than 50 classical games since the last WC, then their opponent gets 1 point. If either player has played less than 20 classical games since the last WC, then their opponent earns 2 points instead.

Tiebreak

• As mentioned above, in the case of a tie, the player with the higher FIDE rapid Elo is the next projected WC.

How I Made this System & Its Flaws

I made this system by deciding whoever has the most points wins and thinking about what factors make someone likely to become the next world champion. For instance, if someone has a higher Elo, that is an obvious advantage. If someone has been performing well in the year leading up to the world championship, then they likely have a higher chance of winning the world championship match. If a contestant plateaued or tilted recently, they probably won't do as well.

If there is a tie in the world championship match, then it goes to rapid tiebreaks. That is why, in the event that the prediction system results in a tie, the player with the higher rapid rating becomes the projected winner.

I did not review historical world championships to make this system. Inevitably, it is probably flawed and could have a bias towards the current world champion or the challenger. Later on in this blog, we look at two world championships and whether or not the system would have accurately predicted the winner.

But I digress. The point is that this is just the first version of a system and I intend to modify it and/or make a new one. So, do keep in mind that this is not the final version of a system but a first draft of one. Essentially, if the prediction is wrong, it's not my fault!

Inspiration & Why I Made This System

I made this prediction system on my own. Yet, it is true that I got inspiration from other - almost completely unrelated - sources.

The United States presidential election had not yet begun when I first started drafting this blog. So, I had gone down the rabbit hole watching videos of pundits and historians predicting the winner. Nate Silver is an election forecaster who makes predictions based off polling and numbers and provides the percentage chance each candidate will win. He founded 538.

Meanwhile, Allan Lichtmann is another election forecaster. He uses a point based system that uses both judgment and statistics called the 13 Keys. His system predicts the winner of the next election and is either right or wrong. Unlike Silver's percentage based system, there are no caveats.

Like the US presidential election, the chess world championship has two contenders. So, I determined that I would make a prediction model that is based off nothing but stats. There is no judgment involved. However, I liked the point based system Lichtmann used and how it conclusively predicts one winner instead of just offering simulations of possible outcomes.

Essentially, I liked political prediction systems and so I made a chess prediction system. Both elements and ideas from Lichtmann's and Silver's system have been utilized. However, my model was designed solely by me and it is drastically different than the aforementioned two systems.

With all that kept in mind, I believe I am the first to make such a prediction system for chess world championships. If that is the case, then I am truly at the top of the hierarchy of nerds. I do not know whether or not I should rejoice or instead denounce my basement.

Predicting the Outcomes of Past World Championships with this System

After I designed this system, I decided to test whether or not it would have correctly predicted one world championship where the challenger won and one where the incumbent world champion successfully defended their title.

Chess World Championship of 2013

The chess world championship of 2013 was a battle between Vishy Anand (the incumbent) and Magnus Carlsen (the challenger). Ultimately, Magnus won the chess world championship of 2013 after winning 6.5 out of 10 while Vishy only won 3.5/10 games.

Anyways, let us test whether or not my system's projection here would have been accurate! Here is the scoring for the 2013 world championship with this system:

• Vishy was the current world champion at the time (+1 point for VIshy).
• Vishy's Elo before the 2012 world championship was 2791 and it dipped to 2775 before the 2013 world championship (+1 point for Magnus).
• In the year leading up to the 2013 chess world championship, Magnus's FIDE classical rating went from 2848 to 2870. This is a 22 point increase (+1 point for Magnus).
• Directly before this world championship, Vishy's Elo was 2775 and Magnus's Elo was a whopping 2870. That is a gobsmacking rating difference of 95. (+3 points for Magnus).

After scoring this world championship, Magnus has 5 points and Vishy earned 1. Since this system gives Magnus a higher score, that means he would have been the projected winner. As mentioned above, Magnus ousted Vishy in the 2013 world championship. So, my prediction method would have correctly predicted the future chess world champion here.

Chess World Championship of 2021

The chess world championship of 2021 was a match between Magnus Carlsen (the incumbent) and Ian Nepomniachtchi (the challenger). Magnus ended up winning the match by winning 7.5/11 games while Ian only won 3.5 out of 11.

Now, onto who my system would have projected as the winner of this world championship:

• Magnus was the incumbent world champion (+1 point for Magnus).
• Magnus Elo went from 2835 before the previous world championship match to 2855 before this one. That is a gain of 20 rating points (+2 points for Magnus).
• In November 2021 - the month this world championship took place - Magnus's classical Elo was 2855 and Ian's Elo was 2782. This is a rating differential of 73 points (+3 points for Magnus).

Here, my prediction model also correctly predicts the winner (Magnus again of course). I selected these world championships because the former one is the most recent world championship where a challenger beat an incumbent and the latter one is the most recent example of where an incumbent beat a challenger.

My prediction model would have projected both world championships correctly. It is worth noting that Magnus had a drastically higher Elo than the other contestant in both cases. Given that this system utilizes Elo differential as an important metric, that is an obvious reason why successfully projecting the winner of these rather lopsided world championships is not astronomically impressive.

Still, this does decrease the likelihood of my prediction system having blatant bias towards either the current world champion or challenger. And the fact that the prediction model correctly projected the winner of both the 2013 and 2021 world championships increases my trust in it.

Who My System Projects as the Winner of this Year's World Championship

So, does my impartial projection model expect Ding or Gukesh to be the next chess world champion? Find out after this commercial break!

NordVPN is a... Nah I'm trolling we're not doing ads here. 💀💀💀

Anyways, here is a full analysis of the entire projection system and what points it does and does not award to each contestant in the 2024 chess world championship:

Points that Could Solely go to Ding

• Ding Liren is the current world champion (+1 point for Ding).
• Ding does not gain points for his classical rating going up since before the last chess world championship given that his rating has decreased by 61 points since then (+0 points for Ding).
• Ding does not get points for cleanly winning the last chess world championship because he won it in tiebreaks (+0 points for Ding).
• Ding does not get points for his challenger losing 10 or more Elo in the last year given that Gukesh's classical rating has improved by 37 points in that timespan (+0 points for Ding).

Points that Could Solely go to Gukesh

• Ding has lost 61 Elo since the month before the 2023 chess world championship (+2 points for Gukesh).
• Gukesh only won the candidates tournament by half a point (+0 points for Gukesh).
• Gukesh's FIDE classical rating improved from 2746 to 2783 in the past 365 or so days. This is an increase of 37 Elo (+2 points for Gukesh).

Points that Could go to Either Contestant

• Gukesh's current classical Elo is 2783 whereas Ding's is only 2728. That is a dramatic rating differential of 55. (+3 points for Gukesh).
• Both players have played in 50 or more games since the last world championship. To me, it came as a bit of a surprise that Ding had played in over 50 games in that timespan given that he stopped playing chess altogether for half a year. Anyways, since the start of May 2023, Ding has played 63 games and Gukesh has played 84. (+0 points).

After tallying up all the points, my system gives Gukesh 7 points and Ding 1. My prediction model has spoken loud and clear: Gukesh Dommaraju will be the next chess world champion.

And if my system is wrong, blame the prediction system and not me! 😁😁😁

Conclusion

In conclusion, my projection system predicts victory for Gukesh. Most chess fans, pundits and players agree with me here. However, we will soon see whether or not Ding Liren can pull off a stunning upset and defend his title of chess world champion.