2014 Carlsen - Anand world champs outcome according to math

My prediction is: Carlsen wins in 11 rounds with a 6.5 - 4.5 score.

Actually it is not just a prediction, it is the most likely outcome according to math.

So how come did I come to that conclusion?

Carlsen's rating is 2863, Anand is 2792 -- a difference of 71 points. By FIDE rating definition, a difference of 71 points equals a 60% chance to score for Carlsen in each game (and a 40% chance for Anand). So after one game we the "average" result would be 0.6 points vs 0.4 points, after two games 1.2 vs 0.8 etc.

The critical 6.5 points is reached after 11 rounds, when the result (on average) should be 6.6 - 4.4 in Carlsen's favour. Rounding this to closest half point gives a score of 6.5 - 4.5. 

The second most likely outcomes are 7-4 and 7-5 to Carlsen (if we round the other way, or end up playing the 12th game).

Easy huh?

But hey, can it really be that easy? Would that have worked for, say, the 2013 World Championship?

Yes. And it would have been spot on!

Back then Anand was rated 2775 and Carlsen 2870 -- a difference of 95 points. By FIDE rating definition 95 points is about 63.1% chance for Carlsen in each game, and 36.9% for Anand.

The critical 6.5 points is then expected to be reached after 10 games, with a 6.31 - 3.69 score for Carlsen. Rounding this to the closest half point, gives us the actual result: 6.5-3.5 in 10 games. The second most likely result would have been 7-4 to Carlsen in 11 games.