Are Cheaters Keeping OTB Players away?

The DIMMER VIEW...Why do so many OTB chess players refuse to play online chess?

Let's start with me. I resisted online chess because 1) I didn't know who I was playing and 2) it seemed to me that there was a big chance that I was playing against somebody's computer.

The first time I tried playing online I was dismayed at the result. I had to change my avatar to a pretty young girl to get a game, then was constantly bombarded with game requests. And yes, I felt like I was up against Cyrus, Sargon III or Chesmaster 2000 all the time. Those were the cutting edge chess programs available for pc's at the time, not great but better than my strength of about 1200-1300 at that point.

So it's the cheaters that keep the OTB players inactive, IMHO. I played in a tournament recently and saw an anomaly that I thought pointed at a possible cheater and as a suspicious type did a little quick investigation into the player.

Tipping me off to the potential target was the fact that he has been a C player for years but suddenly in this five rounder he drew with a National Master, then proceeded to beat a 1900+ player, an 1800+ player, a 1700+ player and a 1300+ player. The "suspect" was rated just over 1400 so his % chance of beating the master was under 1% (per Arpad Elo's probability chart upon which Elo ratings are based).
Going down the line, a 4% chance vs the 1900+ and 1800+ players and 8% chance vs the 1700+ player and a 58% chance vs the 1300+

This all looks suspicious but is a long way from establishing that our man was using an engine. A look at the game analysis provided by Chess.com is adding more suspicion as his accuracy percentage in each of his five games was well over 95% except for the game against the lower rated player which was 93%. When you look at his prior games his accuracy level was much lower and only rarely did he exceed 90%.

Looking at his chess.com record for rapid play, he has been a member since 2017 and was rated between 1300 and 1500 until January 2021 when he almost overnight became a 1900+ player. That might lead you to think that a different player took over his user account or he figured out how to use an engine in real time for rapid games. Or maybe he took some lessons and is a particularly gifted student.

If you are ready to convict him, hold your horses just a minute. There is a perfectly viable explanation for the sudden improvement and as it is just as likely to be true as the more obvious and suspicious explanation thatt he cheated, he is by virtue of due process in this country, not guilty.

You see, his earlier games of rapid chess on chess.com were all 10 minute games. Not many people score a lot of 95% accuracies at that time control. The games of the the spectacular tournament were played at 75 + 15.

So our "suspect" did have a great tournament and beat a lot of players rated much higher than himself, but did he cheat? Maybe, but it would require more evidence than what we have seen to prove it and since you are still not guilty until proven guilty, he is not guilty.

But he is the living example that keeps suspicious OTB players from wanting to play online chess.

UPDATE 4/23:  tHE cHESS.COM ACCOUNT OF THE INDIVIDUAL CITED IN THIS BLOG HAS BEEN CLOSED FOR FAIR PLAY VIOLATION BY CHESS.COM AS OF THIS MORNING.