King's Gambit vs. Queen's Gambit: A Statistical Breakdown by Elo

 Hello,

I was surprised by how potent the Queen's Gambit is across all levels, even though it's a very popular opening. The King's Gambit, on the other hand, showed a more curious story: its effectiveness is low at beginner Elos, peaks for intermediate players, and then drops off at higher levels.

My theory is that you need a certain level of tactical proficiency to succeed with the KG's attack, which explains its underperformance at the bottom. Its peak efficiency is likely in the mid-Elo range, where players are good enough to manage the attack, but opponents are less likely to know a precise refutation.

Note: I looked a bit deeper into the Queen's Gambit and noticed that the accepted variation has an insane performance score. I think it might be the biggest statistical discrepancy I've seen so far on a common line by move 4.

 Myself

King's Gambit vs. Queen's Gambit: A Statistical Breakdown by Elo
LKama Jul 6, 20252589,383 viewsEnglish (US)
AnalysisOpeningSoftware DevelopmentChess
I'm developing an open-source tool to analyze opening statistics from the Lichess database. I ran a comparison of the King's Gambit and Queen's Gambit in rapid games, and the results were interesting!Hello,

I was surprised by how potent the Queen's Gambit is across all levels, even though it's a very popular opening. The King's Gambit, on the other hand, showed a more curious story: its effectiveness is low at beginner Elos, peaks for intermediate players, and then drops off at higher levels.

My theory is that you need a certain level of tactical proficiency to succeed with the KG's attack, which explains its underperformance at the bottom. Its peak efficiency is likely in the mid-Elo range, where players are good enough to manage the attack, but opponents are less likely to know a precise refutation.

Note: I looked a bit deeper into the Queen's Gambit and noticed that the accepted variation has an insane performance score. I think it might be the biggest statistical discrepancy I've seen so far on a common line by move 4.

How to Read the Graphs:
--Expected Elo Gain / 100 Games: The expected rating point change from playing this line 100 times. Positive is good for White.
--Average White Elo Gain: A baseline showing White's average performance from move 1.
--Reachability %: Your chance to get this opening on the board if you      try (as White).
--Popularity %: How often this opening is seen in all games.
  Theory Advantage: Reachability / Popularity. A measure of surprise      value and preparation efficiency.

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I would really like if u comment !!