Chess 2026 Candidates First Half Recap: The Mistake Behind Every Loss

Crossposted on Substack

Hi everyone, hope you’re enjoying the Candidates as much as I am! As a National Master and chess lover, it’s my favorite sporting event.

For those unaware, the Candidates Tournament is a biennial chess event to determine who will challenge the World Champion. Right now, eight of the world’s top players are battling it out in Cyprus, with World Champion Gukesh Dommaraju waiting to face the winner.

Courtesy of Chess24, here are the standings so far:

The biggest headline is Sindarov running away with the tournament! At just 20 years old and hailing from Uzbekistan, he’s having the performance of his life. He’s reached #5 in the world on the live rating list, up from just #30 a year ago.

Fabiano was the consensus top pick to win the event. He’s the second-best player of the generation, besides Magnus Carlsen. He’s having a good tournament, but lost to Sindarov (more on that later).

A lot of people are saying that the Candidates is over, but I don’t think so! If Sindarov loses a game and Caruana wins, then there will be just a half-point gap between them. While Sindarov is a heavy favorite, Caruana storming back is absolutely a possibility. He’ll have white against Sindarov in round 11.

What I want to do now is go through every decisive game and pinpoint the exact cause of the loss. I think this will provide a lot of lessons for our own games.

Take Your Time - Caruana vs. Nakamura (Round 1)

This was a very important game. Nakamura came into the tournament as the world number 2, but hadn’t played a high-level classical tournament since Norway Chess last June. Everyone was wondering what form he’d be in.

It turns out, not great. Nakamura is normally the best defender in the world, but in this game he lost a very defensible ending.

The key moment came in this position:

Caruana was winning earlier, but had messed up and given Nakamura a chance to draw. Here, Hikaru can choose between Kc7 and Ke7. He spent less than thirty seconds before playing the losing mistake, Ke7?

The problem is that after Ke7, white’s king can infiltrate to Kc6 immediately. After Kc7, it can’t, so black saves a tempo.

Imagine playing a game like this for over 5 hours, defending your best and finally reaching a drawn position, only to give it away without even thinking. Nakamura had four minutes left (with thirty seconds added after every move), so he had enough time to double-check things in this critical position. Even spending forty-five seconds instead of twenty-five would have probably prevented this blunder.

All classical chess players feel this pain. If I were him, I would be spending hours reliving those thirty seconds and kicking myself for not thinking more. So often, the move you don’t think about ends up being the one to cost you. If it’s true for Nakamura, the undisputed bullet king, then it’s true for all of us.

Lesson: Be careful and never play moves without thinking

Surprise Openings Work

A number of games fall into this category!

It used to be that it was best to play objectively correct lines and try to refute your opponent’s opening. Now that engines are so strong and it’s easy to learn solid openings, it’s not possible to do that at the top level anymore. Instead, what works best is to take your opponent out of their comfort zone: Playing an opening that you know well, but they don’t.

Praggnanandhaa vs. Giri (Round 1)

Pragg played a big surprise against Giri by using the Grand Prix Attack:

This opening is solid at the club level, but not particularly strong against GMs. However, it is paradoxically good for exactly that reason - since it’s not a real threat, GMs don’t spend much time studying it, turning it into a real threat!

Giri is perhaps the best-prepared player in the world today. But he clearly didn’t remember what to do against the Grand Prix, and had spent 40 minutes on the clock by move 15. After move 17, Pragg still had almost all his time remaining (1 hour 48 minutes), while Giri had under an hour.

Giri navigated the opening well, but he allowed Pragg to get a small plus, and that proved lethal when combined with the massive time deficit. For his part, Pragg played a beautiful game!

Sindarov vs. Caruana (Round 4)

If the world’s top opening expert isn’t Anish Giri, then it’s Fabiano Caruana. Surprising him, as Sindarov did, is no mean feat.

The opening here is the Queen’s Gambit Accepted. Bb3 is the most popular move by far, and also the top choice of the engine. Instead, Sindarov opted for Bd3, also a playable move but very rare.

Fabi was obviously not prepared. He spent 11 minutes on the next move, 9 minutes on the move after, then 30 seconds, 8 minutes, and 17 minutes. By move 16, we see a repeat of the Pragg - Giri game: Sindarov had almost all his time, while Fabi had under an hour.

Though Fabi (like Giri) navigated the opening well despite being unprepared, he quickly got outplayed. I’m sure this is due to both the severe time deficit and him being less familiar with the resulting middlegame than Sindarov presumably was.

Nakamura vs. Sindarov (Round 5)

Sindarov again!

He opened with a wild variation of the Queen’s Gambit Declined known as the Marshall Gambit. Soon, they reached this position:

Both players spent essentially no time to get here. But now Nakamura embarked on a 67-minute think! He then played the arguably losing move h4, instead of the correct move Ne4.

What happened? As Nakamura explained, he studied the opening but his preparation missed the move O-O. It’s a very rare move, but recommended by the computer, so white absolutely should be aware of it.

Nakamura came under heavy fire on social media for blaming his second for the loss. Regardless of whose fault it was or whether Nakamura should have shared this publicly, the oversight made the win easy for Sindarov.

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So what’s the takeaway for us normal players? To me, it’s a reminder that there’s a lot of value in preparing rare but dangerous lines even if they’re not particularly strong objectively. For those of us playing below GM level, this even includes lines that are bad! The odds of our opponents perfectly figuring out a correct response over the board are slim.

Logical Strategic Play Matters

I feel a bit bad because I’m going to be picking on Esipenko here. He’s having a rough tournament, being dead last. He’s obviously a very talented player, and if he unlocked his potential (he’s still only 24 years old), he could be fighting for the top places.

In my mind, all three of his losses are primarily due to making moves that are simply not logical.

Sindarov - Esipenko (Round 1)

It’s easy to forget now that he’s running away with the tournament, but Sindarov was in big trouble against Esipenko in the first round.

Black is significantly better here, largely due to his majority on the queenside. Even better, he has 30 minutes while Sindarov has just 6. Sindarov was on the brink here. If Esipenko had played a different next move, we would be talking about a whole different tournament.

The best move is Bb6, increasing pressure on the d4 pawn. But other moves such as Ra8 also keep an advantage.

Instead, he played Bxf3+, and only then Bb6. This is simply bad strategic play. White’s knight is in an uncomfortable pin, and there is no reason to help white unpin it.

White immediately struck back with Ra6, and now it’s black who is coming under pressure! This move is only possible because Qb7 doesn’t work thanks to Qxd5. The white queen never would’ve had that open line if not for Bxf3+.

I’m sure there is some specific and complicated line that explains why Esipenko broke a standard positional rule. But it was an overly complicated one. Sometimes in chess, just following basic strategic principles works best.

Esipenko - Giri (Round 4)

After a wild Sicilian opening, we reach the critical position. Black wants to tuck his king away to safety on b8 and then use his two bishops to counterattack. But white has some open files, and notably is bearing down on the d6-pawn.

Here, white played Qxd3, essentially a losing move. With Ba4, black wins a crucial tempo that also lets the queen protect the pawn on d6. After the rook goes to safety with Rd2, black plays Kb8 and completes development.

Instead of Qxd3, Rxd3 avoids the attack on a4, and puts black in a difficult position. Kb8 is now impossible due to Nxd6. Black still has to move the bishop to defend the d6-pawn, but afterward white is free to make any move they want. White is better.

Again, Esipenko undoubtedly knew he was giving his opponent a tempo and thought there was some specific reason why it was favorable for him. But I sense a weakness in his logical intuition, which should scream not to let your opponent defend their key weakness with a tempo.

Esipenko vs. Wei Yi (Round 7)

Esipenko again…Now you see why I said I feel bad. On the good side, if this one weakness is the reason for all three of his losses, he could be a monster once he fixes it.

A Petroff led to this slightly weird position. The logical options here are for white to castle queenside or trade on d6. Instead, he avoided the bishop trade with Bd2.

I honestly have a hard time understanding what his reasoning here might have been. Maybe he was worried about the black knight hopping to e3 later. But Bd2 is a terrible move, losing a tempo when he’s already behind in development. Black is now significantly better.

After Qe8, white can no longer even castle because it will be met by Qa4. White’s king never got to safety and he never completed development.

Here’s how the game ended:

This would never have happened if he had played normally and simply castled!

Don’t move the same piece twice in the opening without a very good reason.

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What can we take from this? Chess is obviously a very concrete game, and calculation and tactics are the most important things. But there is also a logic that runs through chess. Whether a move makes intuitive logical sense matters, and should be a primary concern if there’s not some immediate tactic.

The best way I’ve found to train strategy is by reading classic books by authors such as Silman and Yusupov. It’s well worth doing. One benefit is that it will give you many wins against kids, because this is where they struggle most.

Make Your Opponent Defend - Praggnanandhaa vs. Sindarov (Round 3)

In the first round, Sindarov mostly won due to Esipenko’s poor play. This game is where he really started to shine.

A Queen’s Gambit Declined has led to a very messy position. Both sides are out of book. Dropping the bishop back to f8 or e7 would be normal here.

Instead, Sindarov sacrificed on b4!

According to the computer, white is significantly better here. But black has two bishops, a pin against the e4-knight, and is about to open the d-file against white’s king. Even if white defends perfectly, black will still have compensation for the piece. But defending isn’t easy, even for a genius like Pragg.

This is how the game ended up:

And white resigned a few moves later.

Don’t be afraid to sacrifice to get a long-term attack. Even if it’s not objectively best, the position will be easier for you to play than for your opponent.

Being too Materialistic - Wei Yi vs. Sindarov (Round 6)

Wei Yi actually surprised Sindarov in the opening this time. But Sindarov navigated it well and outplayed Wei Yi to reach this position after move 21:

Material is equal. But black has a beautiful bishop on d4 and his rooks are both on half-open files. Despite the fact that black hasn’t castled, his king is completely safe. White’s bishop on f6 is precariously placed. Black is better.

Here, Wei Yi had a chance to transform the position with an exchange sac, Rxd4! White’s bishop would go from a weakness to a strength as he would now dominate the dark squares. He also wouldn’t have to worry about black’s bishop eyeing the f2-pawn. Black would be doing fine due to the slight material advantage and active rooks, but I think chances would be roughly level.

White chose not to go for the sacrifice, but due to black’s positional trumps, there was no clear plan and he quickly got a much worse position.

If faced with the choice of being slightly down in material but having counterplay versus being materially equal but having no play, go for the sacrifice. Material is not as important as activity.

Shallow Opening Preparation - Caruana vs. Wei Yi (Round 3)

This game is remarkable because Wei Yi resigned after just nineteen moves.

The bishop on h3 is simply trapped. This game reminds me of the famous World Championship game where Nepo got his bishop trapped by Magnus. This one is even worse since it happened so early in the game. It’s shocking to see such a brilliant player lose a piece that quickly.

What led to this loss? Wei Yi followed one of our above principles and surprised Fabi, just like he later surprised Sindarov. But unfortunately for him, Caruana reacted well and left him with a very messy position that he didn’t know.

Here, the best move for black is to play Bg4, not letting the bishop get trapped by the pawn coming to g4. Instead, Wei Yi spent about two minutes and castled. Caruana played g4.

Objectively, this position is still fine for black. But it’s very dangerous and it’s not obvious how to proceed. Wei Yi now spent 27 minutes on this move and 21 minutes on the next one. Those two moves resulted in him having a lost position!

In the position in the first diagram after Rg1, Wei Yi was clearly already out of prep. Yes, Wei Yi still shouldn’t have blundered a piece the way he did. But even extremely strong players make blunders in difficult positions. The bigger mistake was letting himself get in that situation in the first place.

Fabi just played natural and strong moves, so the opening is something that Wei Yi should have foreseen. I don’t know whether he hadn’t analyzed it or just forgot his analysis. I also don’t want to be overly harsh on him: With so many lines to analyze, mistakes like this will inevitably happen.

So how do we minimize them? If the position is sharp and holds danger for you, make sure to be well-prepared. On the other hand, lines where you can just play naturally and there are five different good moves don’t need much preparation. Focus your opening study on the positions that matter. Don’t just listen to the computer on this: It may say the position is equal, but that is very different from being easy to play.

Don’t Move Pawns In Front Of Your King - Caruana vs. Blübaum (Round 5)

As we already saw with the Esipenko games, basic positional principles matter even at the top level!

Caruana has just played an unusual line against Blübaum’s Petroff. Based on Blübaum’s time usage, this is yet another example of an opening surprise! I include the game here rather than in the earlier section because Blübaum should have reacted to the surprise better than he did.

Black needs to develop his dark-squared bishop and then castle. The best ways to do so are Bc5 or Bd6. Instead, he played g6.

The computer says black is still completely equal after this move. So why do I identify it as the key mistake?

Let’s fast forward to the middle game:

Black is almost completely lost due to the kingside attack. The g6-pawn is being used as a lever to rip open black’s king and open files. Black tried to prevent this by pushing g5, but still ended up getting mated.

Whenever you move pawns in front of your king, you make it easier for your opponent to open lines of attack by pushing their own pawns and then trading for the pawn you pushed. If Blübaum had developed the bishop to c5 or d6, then white’s entire plan of pushing to f5 would have made little sense.

Black could have held the game by defending better. But if he hadn’t played g6, he never would’ve had to defend against such an attack in the first place. This also reflects the earlier principle about putting your opponents on the defensive.

Fianchettoing is not bad, of course. It is often the best approach. But because of how white’s pieces were already set up here, it made his attack flow effortlessly. Always think and then think again before you move pawns in front of your king.

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There we have it, my key reason for every loss so far! It turns out that even at the highest level, simple chess principles go a long way.

Thanks for reading, and enjoy the rest of the Candidates!