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Which One?

lukegk

Mar 30, 2023, 12:33 PM | 12

Another World Championship prediction blog? Yup, another one. When I suddenly remembered that the World Chess Championship was coming up, I just knew I had to predict it. Using serious scientific testing such as coin flipping, cutting open dead animals and looking at the guts (yes, this was really a thing in ancient Rome), and yoga meditation in the Russian forests and Chinese plains, I have endeavored to discover the truth about this epic matchup, probably the closest of all time. In addition to this important research, I have analyzed the works of such important authors as Likaru Rakamura and Hevy Nozman, taking every seventh word as evidence as to who would win the World Chess Championship. As I am currently being pursued by angry agents of Hans Niemann, I have little time to write this blog, and must do so quickly. Let us begin.

The Evidence of the Coin Flips

Having flipped a Chinese yen several hundred times, I was imparted with a mystical revelation from the spirit of that mythical beast, Mittens, telling me that I should use that invaluable resource, Chess.com. I, never being one to fight the urges of the chess deities, immediately consulted the Games Database, questing after two PGN files. After defeating the Dragon of the Glitchy Search Function, I acquired these, and will now present them to you.

Although I am notoriously given to waxing poetic over games that I consider interesting, Nepomniachtchi's victory was legimately amazing, at least according to my assistant, Hans I. S. Stockfishman.

The Evidence of the Dead Cat

Having successfully pursued my research this far, I was struck with a bolt of lightning, as from Thor Isaac Snow himself had chosen to bless me with his bounteous gifts. Thus was I shown that I ought to examine the interior organs of Mittens, to learn more from Caissa. Thus I did.

This revealed unto me that I ought to compare their rating progress, and thus see which appeared to be the superior player. Examining this in the dark halls of Chess.com, I found several interesting things.

Nepomniachtchi is at an all-time rating peak, while Ding has been fairly stable for the last few years.
Nepomniachtchi has performed far better than Ding recently.
Nepomniachtchi won two Candidates tournaments straight with crushing performances - a rare feat.

The evidence gained from these data points is quite interesting. While the data unearthed here was merely suspicious, what I learned from my yoga meditation in Russia and China verified my conclusions.

The Evidence of the Yoga

While meditating in Siberia and Szechwan, I thought over the last World Championship match. Nepomniachtchi had played at a very high level until he fell apart after the 6th game, effectively committing seppuku (a useful word I learned during my layover in Tokyo). Would nerves be his downfall in the next match?

Ian himself, but without the bun.

The Evidence of the Analysis

Studying the writings of Hevy Nozman, I found many interesting clues through numerical analysis. Firstly, I found that the word 'ROOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOK' was often repeated throughout my findings, leading me to believe that at least one of the players will win a brilliancy, perhaps even sacrificing the ROOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOK?

Ding playing GM Caruana.

Next, I found that 'Nepo win pawn' was mentioned several times. Will Nepo possibly win a pawn in this match? If so, my theories are validated. But finally, the name of the next world champion was revealed to me.

Get ready...

No, this isn't it.

Almost there!

Yup, my predicted winner for the 2023 World Chess Championship match is Ian Nepomniachtchi. Despite his disappointing performance in the 2021 match, I think that he will be back this time, ready to finally win the glory of a World Chess Championship crown.

Nepo grins as he sits down at the board.

The Bad News

Oh? You were hoping for Nepo to win? I was too. Unfortunately, he can't now. Now that I've predicted a winner for the match, the laws of the universe will make it impossible for him to win. At least he got to play, right?

The Good News Again

Hey! But if I think Ding's going to win, Nepo will. But then the paradox recurs. I fear I must devote the rest of my life to considering this paradox. Nice knowing you!

What to Look Forward To

Balloons! At the last World Championship, the players drew lots by popping balloons, one of which had white confetti, the other black.
Ding's positional play. Ding is known for his Capablanca-like technique, which never fails to produce beautiful games.
Nepomniachtchi's attacks! During virtually every tournament that Ian plays, we get to witness beautiful attacking play - hopefully this will be no exception. Plus, we'll get to see what happens when an unstoppable force (Ian's juggernaut of an attack) encounters an immovable object (Ding's solid play).

All in all, this match is something we should all be excited for - if you're not, I don't know what to say. Here we come!

Luke

If you want to read more World Championship predictions, check out this article and this blog.

Which One?

The Chess Stew