So You're Brand New, But Want To Make GM?
Just starting to up chess in your twenties, and wondering if you can become a master, or even a GM? I used to think like you. I used to approach an activity, and ask myself whether I had the capacity to be truly excellent at it. Set a new goal: to practice chess regularly and improve. Set a more important goal: to have fun practicing and playing chess intentionally.
If you're just getting into the game, the idea of "becoming a chess grandmaster" is not rooted in your new-found love of chess, but rather in the idea of "becoming the best at something." Something tells me you ask yourself that question with more than just chess. I used to until recently, and still have some friends growing out of it.
I'm not sure what it's like where you are, but I'm in America, and I can tell you a thing or two about our media culture. We prize being number one. We celebrate people like Michael Phelps, but I recall social media carrying an air of disappointment around bronze and silver medals for our 2008 Olympic gymnastics team. Never mind the fact that the women getting bronze and silver medals were doing back flips on balance beams. Attempting that would paralyze or kill pretty much anyone. Also, never mind the other thousands of people who do gymnastics around the country, every day, all the time, for whom gymnastics is totally worth it.
It's not just the news, it's also our storytelling culture. I can think of more than one American TV show or movie where a protagonist completely masters an activity through a half-hearted montage in the background of the plot*. We are taught people can become masters at things, just because. There aren't novels about the girl who picked up bass in her twenties, practiced seriously every day for a few years, had bi-weekly band practice, and played metal gigs at small venues through her thirties. We don't have the smash hit show about the guy who picked up jiu jitsu at 30, got in shape, and became a better father by understanding himself and his limitations.
So, back from media to reality.
You're what, 20? 25? Did you go to high school and college? If you did, you're at an age where becoming good at things has been your main job for most of your life. Thinking in terms of "can I get good at this" may be all you know. Since chess is not your job, it has to become a hobby. In addition to a hobby, you'll probably want friends, you may want one or more romantic relationships, you may want to raise children -- you'll probably want to have some kind of life. Practicing anything for a couple hours a day, five days a week starts to become unrealistic - it's probably not even something you actually want. And would that even be enough to make GM? Honestly. I've met two USCF Experts who saw what they would have to give to make Master, and consciously decided not to try. To them, the sacrifices weren't worth it.
The movie Before Sunrise deals with exactly this. I could tell you I watched the whole movie, but I actually just know this key dialogue from a techno mix (warning: actual movie clip, which may be a spoiler: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nhlRKy9BACg). This isn't the first time someone tells someone else that getting good at something isn't the meaning of life, and also I feel like I'm writing a cool essay by linking you this clip because it makes me sound cultured and literate, even though I literally haven't watched the movie.
So. Shake the idea that you need to be the best at some skill. Get a new idea - that you need to be the best person you can be, the best friend you can be, the best partner you can be, the best parent you can be, the best child you can be, have the best career you can have, and be the best chess player you can be while you're at it. I'll personally be a wood-pushing tilapia til the end of my days, and every patzer moment will be worth it.
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*Examples in rot13, because also spoilers kind of: Zbnan naq Ningne: Gur Ynfg Nveoraqre.