Last Updated: 06/01/2025
~93% accuracy as of 06/01/2025
This is a competition with @imchesspro0930 and many other players to see whose instincts are better! Feel free to make your own probability sheet and compete too!
To prevent bias, my variants, variants that the requirements aren't met and troll/plagarised submissions are not added into the tally but will still be included on the list.
Self declined variants do not contribute towards the tally unless the variant has a negative vote according to CGA data.
If a user gets banned and their variants get declined as a result, they do not count.
If a variant gets declined because an under-review variant that uses the same concept get accepted (eg: Heard in Swarm and Zombie Crickets), only the accepted one will count towards the total.
Bugged submissions are removed from the list altogether.
Pending Reply counts as accepted NO MATTER WHAT.
Dark green are submissions I am >80% sure will be accepted.
Green are submissions I am 51 to 80% sure of acceptance.
Yellow are submissions that the acceptance chance is about 26 to 50%.
Orange are submissions that the acceptance chance is about 11 to 25%.
Red are submissions that the acceptance chance is about 1 to 10%.
Dark Red are submissions that the acceptance chance is <1%.
Blue means No CGA data has been recorded yet. However, all variants are immediately given an 'original probability' based on my instincts.
This variant sheet is split up into 4 columns:
Variant Name: Self-explanatory.
Current Probability (based on CGA data): When CGA's play their testing games and cast their votes, that probability section will update.
Reason: A reason why I gave the colour for 'Current Probability' and 'My Instincts'
My Instincts: The prediction that I gave this variant as soon as I heard about it.
Variant NameCGA Votes:ReasonMy Original Prediction (Based on my instincts)Qiang-XiangqiUnknownThis has a negative vote. Additionally, in my opinion, this is a slight improvement but this is not fun to play in my opinion, plus the walls are blocking the way.OrangeArkhangelskUnknownI actually like this variant and it's strategies, I don't see any issues with it. Maybe the alibaba-riders can be replaced with other attacking pieces? Overall, it is good. However, phantom rooks recently got accepted, which could possibly reduce the chance of being accepted too.YellowWell of FateUnknownThis is actually a good first variant! However, the spell imbalance is unique but weird but can be worked on, and the board is too big. 2 to 3 revisions of this will likely be accepted.RedSerendipityUnknownNo CGA data yet. However, this is awkward and looks unpleasant, but the issues are fixed. Additionally, I would recommend a smaller board.OrangeCavalry ChangeUnknownThis sucks, like Eminem.RedCovered WarUnknownNo CGA data yet. However, in my opinion, this variant feels weird, and there are so many unneccesary pieces and interlocked pieces, including the royals. Additionally, this is not fun to play at all.Dark RedDiminishing ReturnsUnknownNo CGA data yet. However, according to my instincts, this definitely is a great attempt to make a 4P crazyhouse variant but WHY ANY CAPTURE? This doesn't feel like it will be accepted but definitely a great (but not perfect) variant.YellowChakUnknownAn interesting take on Villagers Chess! However, the promotion is to a king + there are not enough attacking pieces to attack your opponent's pawn. Additionally, in my opinion, the board is too big and I also believe that White has a first move advantage.Dark RedLeapersUnknownNo CGA data. This is not too bad. Actually fun in my opinion, would +1 if I could unless I play more of this and find a major issue.YellowRicketsUnknownThe crickets don't change muchRedContrasting StrategiesUnknownUnfair Strategies almost got accepted and this is a slight improvement.OrangeMedusa's PawnsUnknownFew minor issues. If declined, the revision is definitely dark-green.YellowDelta's CampmateUnknownCGA Data. This is good, however, imo, there are 2 concerns: not enough attacking pieces + it might be a bit similar to Villagers Chess.YellowCataclysmUnknownCGA data. I don’t like because it feels really awkward. No N+ too?OrangeKnives WarUnknownCGA data. You can't make a variant by spamming ferzes and sergeants!RedThe CellarUnknownCGA data. However, this was yellow because I don’t like Fog.YellowLobotomy ExplorersUnknownN/AN/ADelicate GiantUnknownCataclysm is likely gonna get accepted so this is useless.OrangeLimited LifeUnknownNice concept but needs more work.OrangeStereo JunglenessUnknownCGA data. "Probability sheet owners beware" - @ChessMasterGSN/ADon't Get CaughtUnknownFirstly, The bots only move around randomly. Secondly, there's minimal player interaction since the focus is mainly on avoiding bots. Thirdly, It's possible to claim a win simply by checkmating the bot, which is extremely easy to do. Finally, YOU CAN DOUBLE STEP OVER THE PROMOTION SQUARE!Dark Red8000UnknownN/AN/A Current Statistics (based on 'my original prediction')
ColourAcceptedDeclinedDark Green00Green00Yellow14Orange01Red04Dark Red05