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Methodology: Using the historical stats, assume the result of a match is 25% 2-2, 39% 2.5-1.5, 23% 3-1, 11% 3.5-0.5, 3% 4-0. Assume average rating remains constant through the end of the season. Philadelphia: is in a tough spot, requiring: Win over MAN and Win over NY and either i) NY-NJ results in a tie and NJ-Manhattan is a decisive match and Philadelphia catches up in GP enough to take over both NY and (loser of NJ-Manhattan). or ii) NJ beats NY and NJ beats MAN and Philly catches up in GP to pass Manhattan. In case (i) Philly must win against MAN 4-0: Must win final match by -3-1: NJ beats MAN 3.5-0.5 or 4-0 OR MAN beats NJ (44.5%*11.5%*1.5%) -3.5-0.5: NJ beats MAN 3-1 or above OR MAN beats NJ (56%*5.5%*1.5%) -4-0: NJ beats MAN or MAN beats NJ (75%*1.5%*1.5%) 3.5-0.5: Must win final match by -3.5-0.5: NJ beats MAN 4-0 or MAN beats NJ (39%*5.5%*5.5%) -4-0: NJ beats MAN 3.5-0.5 or 4-0 or MAN beats NJ (44.5%*1.5%*5.5%) 3-1: Must win final match by 3.5-0.5 or 4-0 and MAN beats NJ (7%*37.5%*11.5%) 2.5-1.5: Must win final match 4-0 and MAN beats NJ (1.5%*37.5%*19.5%) e.g. case (i) has a .706% chance of happening In case (ii): Philly must win against NY: 4-0: Philly must beat MAN -4-0: NJ must beat MAN (37.5%*1.5%*1.5) -3.5-0.5: NJ must beat MAN at least 3-1 (18.5%*5.5%*1.5%) -3-1: NJ must beat MAN at least 3.5-0.5 (7%*11.5%*1.5%) -2.5-0.5: NJ must beat MAN 4-0 (1.5%*19.5%*1.5%) 3.5-0.5: Philly must beat MAN -4-0: NJ must beat MAN at least 3-1 (18.5%*5.5%*1.5%) -3.5-0.5: NJ must beat MAN at least 3.5-0.5 (7%*5.5%*5.5%) -3-1: NJ must beat MAN 4-0 (1.5%*11.5%*5.5%) 3-1: Philly must beat MAN -4-0: NJ must beat MAN at least 3.5-0.5 (7%*1.5%*11.5%) -3.5-0.5: NJ msut beat MAN 4-0 (1.5%*5.5%*11.5%) e.g. case (ii) has a .107% chance of happening. Totaled, PHI has a .813% chance of qualifying for the playoffs and a 0% chance of winning the division. NEW JERSEY (a) NJ cliches a playoff spot with a win over NY and at least a tie against MAN (37.5%*62.5%) [23.4%] NJ could still make the playoffs with a win over NY and a loss to MAN if [9.29%] i) NY fails to win against PHI (62.5%*37.5%*37.5%) ii) NY defeats PHI and NJ had defeated NY... 4-0: NJ needs NY beats PHI 4-0 and NJ scores 1.5 points against MAN (1.5%*19.5%*1.5%) OR NY 3.5-0.5 and NJ scores at least 1 point (5.5%*31%*1.5%) OR NY 3-1 and NJ scores at least .5 points (11.5%*36.5%*1.5%) OR NY 2.5-1.5 (19.5%*1.5%) 3.5-0.5: NJ needs NY beats PHI 3-1 and NJ scores 1.5 points (11.5%*19.5%*5.5%) (b) Should NJ-NY result in a draw, NJ requires: [20%] NJ defeats MAN and NY fails to defeat PHI (37.5%*62.5%*25%) or NJ draws MAN and NY loses to PHI (25%*37.5%*25%) or NJ loses to MAN 2.5-1.5 and NY loses to PHI 4-0 and PHI fails to win against MAN (19.5%*1.5%*62.5%*25%) or NJ defeats MAN and MAN fails to defeat PHI (37.5%*62.5%*25%) (c) Should NJ lose to NY 1.5-2.5, NJ requires [0.52%] -NJ defeats MAN 4-0 and NY loses to PHI or (1.5%*37.5%*19.5%) -NJ defeats MAN 3.5-0.5 and NY loses to PHI 3-1 or worse or (5.5%*18.5%*19.5%) -NJ defeats MAN 3-1 and NY loses to PHI 3.5-0.5 or worse or (11.5%*7%*19.5%) -NJ defeats MAN 2.5-1.5 and NY loses to PHI 4-0 (19.5%*1.5%*19.5%) Should NJ lose to NY 1-3, NJ requires [0.02%] -NJ defeats MAN 4-0 and NY loses to PHI 3.5-0.5 or worse or (7%*1.5%*11.5%) -NJ defeats MAN 3.5-0.5 and NY loses to PHI 4-0 (1.5%*5.5%*11.5%) OR [5.2%] NJdefeats MAN and MAN loses to PHI (37.5%*37.5%*37.5%) NEW YORK (a) [41.04%] NY needs a win and either a.i) NY not losing to PHI (37.5%*62.5%) [23.4%] a.ii) NY losing to PHI and NJ not defeating MAN (37.5%*37.5%*62.5%) [8.79%] a.iii) NY losing to PHI, NJ defeating MAN, but NY winning the GP tiebreaker over NJ [4.89%] -NY beat NJ 2.5-1.5 [2.29%] >NY loses to PHI 2.5-1.5 and NJ does not go 4-0 (19.5%*36.5%*19.5%) >NY loses to PHI 3-1 and NJ scores less than 3.5 (11.5%*31%*19.5%) >NY loses to PHI 3.5-0.5 and NJ wins 2.5-1.5 (5.5%*19.5%*19.5%) -NY beat NJ 3-1 [2.60%] >NY loses to PHI 2.5-1.5 or 3-1 (31%*11.5%*37.5%) >NY loses to PHI 3.5-0.5 and NJ does not go 4-0 (5.5%*36.5%*11.5%) >NY loses to PHI 4-0 and NJ scores less than 3.5 (1.5%*31%*11.5%) >NY beat NJ 3.5-0.5 or 4-0 (7%*37.5%*37.5%) a.iv) NY losing to PHI, NJ defeating MAN, PHI defeats MAN (37.5%*37.5%*37.5%*37.5%) [1.98%] a.v) NY loses to PHI, NJ defeats MAN, PHI draws MAN, NY wins GP tiebreaker over MAN and loses to NJ [not possible?] a.iv) NY losing to PHI, NJ defeating MAN, PHI defeats MAN (37.5%*37.5%*37.5%*37.5) [1.98%] a.v) NY loses to PHI, NJ defeats MAN, PHI draws MAN, NY wins GP tiebreaker over MAN (b) [21.99%] NY draws against NJ and either b.i) NY defeats PHI and NJ fails to defeat MAN (37.5%*62.5%*25%) [5.86%] b.ii) NY defeats PHI, NJ defeats MAN, NY wins the GP tiebreaker over NJ [4.59%] -NY defeats PHI at least 3-1 or (31%*37.5%*25%) -NY defeats PHI 2.5-1.5 and NJ does not defeat MAN 4-0 (18.5%*36.5%*25%) b.iii) NY defeats PHI, NJ defeats MAN, PHI defeats or draws MAN (37.5%*37.5%*37.5%*62.5%) [3.30%] b.iv) NY defeats PHI, NJ defeats MAN, PHI loses to MAN, NY loses the GP tiebreak to NJ but defeats MAN [impossible] b.v) NY draws PHI, NJ fails to defeat MAN (25%*62.5%*25%) [3.91%] b.vi) NY draws PHI, NJ defeats MAN, PHI defeats MAN (25%*37.5%*37.5%*25%) [0.88%] b.vii) NY loses to PHI, NJ loses to MAN other than NJ losing 2.5-1.5 and NY losing 4-0. (37.5%*37.5%*25%-18.5%*1.5%*25%) [3.45%] e.g. NY has a 63.03% chance of making the playoffs. Finally, MANHATTAN gets the rest, e.g. 200%-.813%-58.33%-63.03%=77.8%.