2014 World Chess Championship Candidates Tournament

1) You did not count Euwe`s wins at Bad Nauheim and Rotterdam in 1937, before their second match (which started at october of 1937).You can find these games in chessgames com.

2) The fact that Euwe was considered as obvious favorite is generally aknowldeged by people who knows chess history. It`s admitted even by Alekhine fans like Kotov.

The Rotterdam game seems to have been part of the exhibition match played after the rematch, so the correct numbers should be 2-1 to Euwe between the matches, but then Alekhine probably cared more about the rematch. I don't think people who know chess history generally agree that Euwe was the obvious favourite there. Alekhine was just the much greater player of the two, and his +6 result in 1937 was much less surprising than the -1 result in 1935.

Even 2-1 score is good evidence that result of their 1935 match was more than just an accident.

In fact your (and mcshaun`s) only argument is +6 score in 1937 match, even without looking at the games, ignoring acknowledged historical fact about Euwe being considered as favorite before 1937 match and opinion of numerous world class players who analysed their games.

It`s ridiculous to say nothing more.

Returning to this tournament, the big favourites were Aronian and Kramnik, and while Aronian underperformed, it is possible that people just have been expecting too much of Kramnik lately. The only event he has won the last three years is the World Cup knockout, and then he didn't face any opponent ranked in the top 20. I wonder if this wasn't his last Candidates unless he is given a wild card next time (if he will keep playing). Hard to see him signing up for the Grand Prix series, and it is far from certain that he can repeat the World Cup win or qualify by rating.

Winning the World cup is not so simple as some may think, but taking into account quality of Kramniks play in this Candidates tournament (unequal play vs Mamedyarov, horrible blunders vs Svidler & Karjakin), his strenght seems to have declined seriously.

Speaking on Aronian - it`s not the first (and probably not the last) time when he fails Candidates tournament in which he has been considered as favorite, as I`ve already pointed out before.

I don't recall Kramnik ever playing so badly. He has had some bad results before, but the number of blunders here was totally uncharacteristic. The one in the opening against Karjakin just gave him a lost position after 7 moves, against Svidler he went from a promising position to dead lost in one move, and in the first game between them Svidler missed a win, against Mamedyarov he blundered into a lost position but was saved by Mamedyarov blundering back, against Aronian it was Kramnik that blundered back, against Topalov he just played a very weak game, and then didn't play well in the second either, but Topalov overpressed instead of taking the draw. Against Andreikin Kramnik went from a good position to a worse endgame that he managed to save.

I wonder how he will play in his next tournament, he is at least supposed to play in Norway in June, against Carlsen, Aronian, Karjakin, Svidler, Topalov, Caruana, Grischuk, etc. Also Topalov will be interesting to see there, he played a couple of good games here but like Kramnik he felt much older than Anand chess wise.

fabelhaft wrote:

I don't recall Kramnik ever playing so badly. He has had some bad results before, but the number of blunders here was totally uncharacteristic.

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Now that you mention it, I don't recall Anand playning so well either.

Lol

The Kramnik match in 2008 is probably the last time he played as well as here.

You guys make it sound like Kramnik had absolutely horrible result but he still made 50% with 2768 performance! Yes, there were several uncharacteristic blunders but apart from those he showed good play. Seems like a case of bad form to me. Besides it's just one tournament. 

Kramnik hasn't played much lately and it's possible that this is part of the problem but he still had couple of his best tournaments last year with the candidates and World cup. Kramnik is getting older but he is still younger than Anand for example and his general play has been much better in recent years. With candidates now apparently played every year I'm sure he can still be serious contender as long as he wants it.

first...he will still need to qualify...

I think Kramnik played much worse than his result. To me he played one good game, the one with white against Karjakin, where the latter played into a prepared line. As a comparison, I think Kramnik played considerably better when he finished last in Zurich and Tal Memorial last year. That he managed to score 50% while playing as he did shows what a strong player he is, but he could just as well have finished last with -3.

If I've understood things right the next Candidates will be held two years from now. Maybe Kramnik will be there, but I wouldn't bet on it, and I think he would have to depend on the wild card.

Just imagine, Kramnik was last 2 or 3 round to go, but then managed to climb till 3rd, which is only 1 place behind last year's result. Aronian on the other side also slipped for 1 place, down to 5th I think, but he was 2nd after 13 rounds. However, I don't think Kramnik will need wild card because his rating will go up now I guess.

http://www.chess.com/news/candidates-r14-karjakin-second-after-beating-aronian-anand-undefeated-7930

They are in the table next to their ratings. It says "Perf."

Comparing Anand and Kramnik, the former has done much better in the World Championship cycles where both have been playing. In the 1994-95 cycle Anand won the Candidates while Kramnik was eliminated by Kamsky, in 2007 Anand won the World Championship clearly, as well as the match against Kramnik a year later. Also this time Anand won, well ahead of Kramnik. So Kramnik has never finished ahead of Anand in a cycle where both have been playing, and never won a qualification for a title match like Anand did in 1994-95 (PCA), 1997-98 (FIDE) and this time (unified). So maybe one shouldn't have been so surprised about Anand's result, but I didn't think he would finish in the top half this time.

Here are betting odds for WCC on bwin:

One unusual thing with this tournament was that it was the maybe first round robin World Championship/Candidates where the favourite or second favourite didn't win. Botvinnik won in 1948, Bronstein in 1950, Smyslov in 1953 and 1956, Tal in 1959, Petrosian in 1962, Topalov in 2005, Anand in 2007, Carlsen in 2013 and now Anand in 2014.

The players suggested as winners before the tournament:

Carlsen: Aronian/Kramnik

Caruana: Aronian/Kramnik

Grischuk: Aronian/Kramnik, followed by Svidler/Karjakin/Mamedyarov

Ivanchuk: Aronian/Mamedyarov

So: Aronian

Giri: Topalov/Mamedyarov

Polgar: Aronian/Kramnik

Seirawan: Aronian/Kramnik/Topalov

http://www.chess.com/news/predictions-for-the-candidates-tournament-5086

And then there's the editor of chess-news.ru, Evgeny Surov:

"If you asked me who would NOT win then I'd be glad to give you a clear reply: Anand. Let's agree on the following: If Anand wins the tournament I'll publicly admit I understand nothing about life or chess"

Haha, the best one! 

Pacifique- you say a lot that makes sense.

You are perfectly right about match upsets.  Another peculiar thing is there are lots of examples of matches between the same two players with opposite results.  There was, in addition to those already mentioned, 2 matches between Kamsky and Anand close to each other in time in the early 90's with one going to each.  It just seems very odd.

Another factor about the Euwe -Alekhine matches that hasn't been mentioned was Euwe's preparation.  His supporters in Holland arranged for financial support that allowed him lots of time to focus on preparation before match one.  Not only was this not repeated before match 2, Euwe had to spend a lot of time between the 2 matches doing simuls and the like to pay for the support he got before match 1.  It would be surprising if Euwe had played as well in match 2 and match 1.

Don't have very good idea who the favourite was before these old tournaments but think that in 2005 the two biggest favourites were Anand and Leko. Topalov also had shown promissing form but still it was a big suprise to see how he totelly destroyed the field in the first half. The greatest performance of his career thus far.

Anand this year was definitely a big suprise. Opinion of the general public is one thing but what's notable that even the experts seemed to write his chances off. I also didn't think he still had it in him but glad to be proven wrong.