I just finished watching IM Daniel King's summary of Game 12, and he said something very interesting at the end. Since 2014 Magnus and Fabio have played 6 Rapid Games over the board (online rapid games are not counted), and the result has been absolutely even!! I was surprised to learn this. I thought Magnus would have had at least a 4-2 advantage since 2014.
Knowing this makes me even more excited for Fabio's chances tomorrow. Magnus is the favorite, but you never know. The Philadelphia Eagles with their backup quarterback Nick Foles upset the favored New England Patriots in the 2018 Super Bowl, so Fabio could do the same!!
I'm with Garry on this one, but I think he's a bit too pessimistic about Magnus' chances. Several facebook friends have mentioned that Magnus' sister said he's been overly tired lately. I do think nerves clearly played a part.
If this had been game 12 of 24, he would have played on. But being the last game, the draw assured him of the highest rating in 2018 and sent him to the faster time controls, which he prefers.
I agree with your analysis but I don't see what that has to do with nerves. Fatigue, faster TC, and high rating are all reasons to go to tiebreaks but none of those have anything to do with nerves. If anything, they support the idea that pragmatism, not nerves, was key.