I think Carlsen has extremely good chances of winning.
Who will win the Zurich chess challenge
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Here's my prediction (backed up by Houdini 4 x64 analysis) so you'd better watch this space closely.
Not Gelfand. Bad blitz and we've seen his shape at Tata Steel. 5 left.
Not Nakamura. Similarly bad shape shown at Tata. Compensates in blitz, but he's still not up there. 4 left.
Not Anand. Will not make 50%. 3 left.
Not Caruana. Won this tournament last year, but he's also not in his best shape, and even in best shape he simply won't be good enough for some years/decades/ever.
Not Carlsen. Lost a sad game against Caruana and barely survived against Gelfand and Aronian. Will score +2 though.
Aronian. The man to beat at the moment. Will beat Caruana, Nakamura and Anand. Draws against Gelfand and Carlsen.
You are welcome.
Participants: Carlsen, Aronian, Anand, Gelfand, Nakamura and Caruana
1. Magnus Carlsen 3
2. Levon Aronian 3
3. Hikaru Nakamura 2.5
4. Fabiano Caruana 2.5
5. Viswanathan Anand 2.5
6. Boris Gelfand 1.5
http://www.zurich-cc.com/games.html
I will be disappointed if Carlsen does not destroy everyone