Alekhine's Defense = questionable?

The one, and only line in the Alekhine where white can claim an advantage, is this one:

White has maintained a nice central control, and all his pieces have good squares to develop.

However, Black's position is quite resilient, and it needs no more than one inaccurate White move to turn the tables.

I firmly believe that White has no advantage at all in the 4.Nf3 dxe5 5.Nxe5 c6! line.

What are you talking about, the 4 knights and the Italian are white openings. 

You mean Classical defence with e4 e5?

Probably an accurate analysis. Although, as an Alekhine player, I would rather face this line in the four pawns for the reasons you mentioned, than the modern variation. I feel like although this is objectively better for white, this is the type of game that black want by playing the Alekhine.

Yeah I agree. I haven't played the Alekhine's in a few months, but I remember preparing exclusively for Four Pawns mainlines because I think they're some of the only lines where White comes out with an advantage that'll actually mean anything. Exchange seems fine but annoying for Black, I welcome Mainline, but Four Pawns means my opponent probably knows as much theory as I do (because who plays a sideline of a sideline against a largely irrelevant opening at 1400?)

Well, most of my opponent play the four pawns attack without knowing any theory. Even if they do know what they are doing, it's still not over. For example, check out this pawn sac when white plays the most commonly played move at master level: Qc1

Eventful or not, either of these give a bigger advantage than using alkehine's. 

Stats from Lichess database comparing 1... Nf6 with 1... e5 at various levels of player rating, all games of which are Blitz, Rapid, Classical, or Correspondance:

Masters database:

At the Masters level, it gives Black +5% chance of win, but it also gives White a +7% chance of win, leaving White a 3% "statistical lead". So, stats say that on the master level, 1... e5 is better, if slightly. Or, arguably, they're pretty much the same.

Lichess database (2200 - 2500)


It's basically the same for both players at the 2200 - 2500 level... but Black is "2% better", on the grounds that Black wins 1% more often, and White wins 1% less often, for a total of 2% improvement for Black.

Lichess database (1800 - 2000):

At 1800 - 2000 level, it's arguably better for Black. Black gains +4%, and White loses 5%, leaving a 9% total gain for Black -- not insignificant, arguably.

Lichess database (1400 - 1600):

At 1400 - 1600 level, Black gains only 2% win rate, but White loses 2% as well, with a 4% total gain for Black. Perhaps slightly better for Black.

Lichess database (1400 - 2500):

At the more average 1400 - 2500 range, Black gains 3% win rate, and White loses 4% win rate, so Black is "7% better".

Stockfish assessment: Stockfish likes other moves like 1... e5 better than 1... Nf6.

Alekhine's assessment:

looks like Alekhine had no problem saying how great the move was.

Conclusion

Based on the above, I can see the argument that 1... Nf6 is perfectly fine for Black, unless you're playing at the master level, and that even then it might be ok, depending. But, on the other hand, Stockfish doesn't like it very much, and ranks other moves higher. And there's the argument that White gets to smack the Knight around the board. What if 1... e5 is simply objectively easier to play? I don't know.

@99

"all games of which are Blitz, Rapid, Classical, or Correspondance"
++ That is a pool of different games. If you want the truth, then look at correpondence.
If you want a practical truth, then look at classical. In blitz and rapid everything is viable.
Win rates correlate with rating difference, not with opening.
If all stronger players for some reason decide to play 1 e4 h6, then that would yield the highest black win rate.

@ tygxc

If by truth you mean, how people will play in correspondance and not those other games, then yes.

I agree with you on the rating difference statement -- unfortunately, there's no simple way to filter results by games where higher rated players crush lower rated players, if those are the games you're interested in.

wasn't c5 a fork?