e4 best by test - wrong?

Let's imagine ourselves in a very hypothetical world, that is very possible. Most Grandmasters believe e4 is the best, hence the databases. But what if everyone played the Berlin defense or Petroff? In the Berlin defense Nf6 puts pressure on e4 and the best move is to castle to develop the rook. But you lose the e4 pawn, and then the game gets to a very near ending. Black gets a more active position, with the bishop pair advantage and an active king. So maybe instead of going into a nearly ended game, d4 gives more chances for a win with play on the queenside.

Dream on. 

In the last World Chess Championship (Carlsen-Caruana, 2018) there were 12 regular games. Here is how each started.

1. e4 c5

1. d4 Nf6

1. e4 c5

1. c4 e5

1. e4 c5

1. e4 e5

1. d4 Nf6

1. e4 c5

1. c4 e5

1. e4 c5

1. e4 e5

1. e4 c5

So white played e4 in 8 out of 12 games, and c4 and d4 just twice each. Could there be a reason for that?

In 2016 it was Carlsen-Karjakin and it was a similar story. White opened e4 in 9 out of 12 games with d4 being played just 3 times. 

In 2014 it was Carlsen-Anand. Guess what? e4 was still the most popular. But this time being played 6 times out of 11 games (with d4 being played 5 times).

In fact, Carlsen has opened e4 in 701 of his 1506 games. He particularly likes it when his opponents play the Berlin Defence to his e4. This has happened 39 times and Carlsen has won 24 of these games and lost only 6.

On this large database of games, https://www.chessgames.com/perl/explorer, e4 is the most popular opening for white. On chess.com's database of master games guess what the most popular move is? You guessed it, e4.

Don't you think that clever people like Anand might have thought about whether the Berlin Defence could be the answer to e4? 

Nf6 on move 2 (as shown below) has a poor record on the chess.com database (white wins 37%, draws 47%, black wins 16%).

Nf6 as a reply to Ruy Lopez (as shown below) does not fare much better (white wins 33%, draws 45%, black wins 22%).

There's no evidence to back up what you are saying.

e4 is best by test.

Playing e4 for 20 years meanwhile I yield nothing out of the opening. Black defends by simple means. Playing closed systems via the Reti move order is much more subtle, Black has a hard life guessing what White is aiming for. Not few super stars including Kasparov stated that the closed games (Nf3/d4/c4) are "richer". So, that's best by test actually.

Rubbish. 

You talk as if the currently fashionable line in the Berlin had been handed down by God and was forever immutable.

Opening theory changes. If it didn't evolve, it wouldn't be "theory". It would be "stamp collecting".

It's a3, by by test! 

Bobby Fischer only said e4 because he didn't want to give his surprise weapon away

Well Alpha Zero, the strongest chess entity on the planet, plays 1.Nf3 1.c4 type stuff as white when they can choose, so I think that just about answers your question.

You must be joking. Alpha Zero is a carefully orchestrated scam by Google. It has unfair supercomputer resources. In any game on equal hardware it would get slaughtered by any competent chess engine around today - Houdini, Stockfish, Rybka, Fritz and maybe even old Crafty.  

Dear gucci233, you are on the right track. As a fellow CM told you his experience with 1.e4 wasn't quite successful, for a reason. He was playing the wrong move from the opening if the goal was to get some kind of advantage out of it. The only move that gives White the chance for an opening advantage is 1.d4 and none other.

First of all, to determine what the best first move for White actually is, we need to understand the importance of the center. 1.d4 is the only move which controls 3 squares in the center thanks to the Queen. Here Black has only 2 valid replies: 1...Nf6 and 1...d5.

Let me start with the first example. Let us say that the moves played were: 1.d4 d5 2.c4 e6 3.Nc3 Nf6. What do you think White's best fourth move is and why? Another question is, if this move is best now then, why shouldn't you play it on the third move? I hope this little test will help you to adopt a totally new approach to the chess and chess openings.

Is this supposed to be a joke? 

c4, d4, e4 and Nf3 are all outstanding first moves for white that give a clear advantage. I also believe 1. b3 and 1. g3 and 1. Nc3 give a small advantage. Any analysis or statistics will show that. We are talking about which is the best opening move, not whether something gives an advantage or not.    

Where were you a "candidate master", on yahoo chess?   

There is really no "better" between 1. e4 and 1. d4. 1. e4 may suit one person while another person might prefer 1. d4. Top level players used to generally play 1. e4 historically, though that was partly because they just preferred the type of games that arose from it. After Fischer there was a period when 1. d4 started to become dominant in top level play, especially after the Kasparov vs Kramnik Berlin Wall fiasco of 2000 which OP obviously read about and decided to act as if he had come up with the idea himself. If anything though the trend is starting to go back to 1. e4 a bit again, where the likes of Carlsen and Caruana are happy to play it all day long.   

Even if every Super GM started to play exclusively 1. d4, that would not mean it's best move and especially not for players who are several hundred rating points lower. 

...and where does 1.a3 rank on this list?

Last. Even though a3 is very often a good move, when you play it as a first move it gives black the initiative in the fight for the centre and he gets almost the first move advantage. If he/she is clever and flexible in how they play they can head for lines where a3 isn't useful. 

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First of all, saying that I am a CM is not at all true. Maybe, I have expressed myself wrongly. English is not my first language.

Before I start explaining what I said and why I said it, maybe you can explain your "joke" that moves like 1.g3 gives White an opening advantage. It's been known for a long time that the only two moves which could actually retain an opening advantage are 1.d4 and 1.e4. However, there is a reason why 1.e4 fails to keep an opening advantage and it will be explained. Keeping the advantage of the first move is entirely different than the move being playable. There is nothing wrong with the move 1.g3 other than that it surrenders the fight for any kind of advantage.

Did you know GM Robert J. Fischer once wrote in a game he analyzed between two GMs that 2.Nf3 for White was already slightly innacurate in 1.d4 d5 which was actually very brave and correct claim by him.

After the first move 1.e4 White's game is in the last throes. 

Gyula Breyer, 100 years ago

When you say "fellow CM" that would mean you are also a CM.   

Also your username is AncientGM suggesting you are a strong player.  

Every move I gave gives white an advantage, including g3. The advantage is slight but white obviously has a move in. I hope you realize that it would take at least a CM or higher to be certain of equalizing against a well-prepared 1. g3 (Benko) opening, if it is indeed the case.     

Your statement of g3, Nc3 and b3 not giving an advantage against a strong opponent is quite possible to take seriously, however by claiming 1. Nf3 and 1. c4 give white no advantage you give yourself away completely - how little clue you have about chess openings to say that. 1. Nf3 is part of the 1. d4 complex of openings, it is just 1. d4 with a very slightly different take in what it allows and disallows. 1. c4 is an entire world of opening theory, the English, which world champion Howard Staunton used to batter opponents to pieces for decades. And here you are claiming it doesn't even offer white an advantage - the joke is all you.      

I'm not arguing with or discussing chess with someone who just said the English Opening doesn't give white an advantage and neither should anyone else take your comments seriously.  

My mistake for saying the wrong term.

First of all suggesting that one should be expert or above to equalize against 1.g3 is really bold and wrong.

1.Nf3 is not just "very slightly different" than 1.d4. The reason being is that after you play 1.Nf3 you actually blocked your f-pawn which in quite a few 1.d4 lines is very important for fighting in the center and KEEPING the initiative. 1.Nf3 doesn't bring White any advantage, because it doesn't force any kind of concessions from Black which is vital in keeping an advantage and nor does 1.c4. There is no point even in discussing 1.c4 since 1...e5 is equalizing.

Secondly, if Kasparov used 1.b4 and won all his games, would you say that 1.b4 is the best move or that it is also a move that gives White the advantage? Better players will probably win with almost any move for a simple reason, because they are better. It doesn't mean the move they played is best or even near to best.

You have opening theory involved around the move 1.b3. Is this White's best try? Can this move KEEP the advantage White had on the first move (often called initiative)?

Thirdly, who are you to tell other people if my comments should be taken seriously or not? I think they are quite capable of deciding by themselves.

Stop spamming your garbage videos. That has nothing to do with this thread or even this board. 

My bad