It’s possible Black will screw up due to the line being so rare, but I think that is hope chess.
Hoping your opponent plays a bad move doesn’t completely justify the position.
Again, the issue here is this is a philosophically-based criticism which can be applied to many commonly played lines, and infact you have done so in the past. You've made the same argument before against commonly played lines such as the Jobava.
But because it's purely philosophical in nature, it is a) not really worth debating since the entire conversation has been had before, b) is saying not much in particular about this line.
As for your comment on hope chess - refer to the post above for my response.
But anybody that understands this position would know better than to play d4. This has many similarities to the fantasy Caro.
After 1.e4 c6 2.d4 d5 3.f3 dxe4 4.fxe4 e5, White has only 1 good move. 5.Nf3, NOT 5.d5??
Here, Black has a couple of options. 4...Bxc5, 4...Nf6 (the move I would play).
So the fact that 4...d4 leads to a bad position is irrelevant.
You are playing "Hope Chess". You hope for anything screw-up by Black. That explains why you are way lower rated. You are around the same level of understanding as the fools that post unrealistic one-mover opening traps that are then saddened when 1 player out of 500 fall for it and they lose the other 499 games.
1) it's the most common move at 2200+ level, so yes, it will be played and this is not irrelevant. Furthermore, I've already told you this move is emblematic of the c5 positions - there is a big difference between someone being under pressure for 1 move vs. at many points throughout a set of lines.
2) your comment on hope chess demonstrates your simplistic and dull mentality about the game, and honestly it's why you're still only 2100 after 40 years. Because you do nothing remarkable or interesting.
- Firstly, differences between this and "hope chess" include a) the precise followup that's prepared, b) the fact white isn't risking the game, the positions is still fundamentally sound, c) the intention to evade the opponents algorithm, which is not the intention in hope chess.
But when you play a line that's offbeat, if it's also very sharp / obscure, yes, that is a good thing - this should be obvious.
When GMs play the Jobava it is in hope that their opponents will be less familiar with the positions. That is, infact, the rationale of playing it.
When GMs prepare the 7th highest rated engine move on move 10... even doing this in classical WC matches... the rationale is the same.
Philosophically you can disagree all you like, it's a much broader conversation but, if anything, the evidence we can gather from top level play - along with statements made by many top level players - supports my position and does not support yours. Odd novelties are the norm at top level play today, not the exception. Your style does not get a player very far beyond where you're at currently - and you've been plateaued for a long time.
- your criticism is again purely philosophical, i.e. it is ultimately stylistic and opinion-based, and no basis for making factual claims. It reflects your personality / personal hangups more than it does particulars about the line. In a sense this sort of comment is fundamentally useless in a conversation such as this, you can't get anywhere with it.
Your logic would also apply to a very wide number of other commonly played lines.
For example, we could apply this same logic to virtually all Nc3 or c3 based queens pawn openings, sidelines in e4 such as the vienna, most anti-sicilians... most moves for white other than c4, d4, e4, or Nf3. Including your polish opening; to the Levitsky which you were exalting earlier; even to the Trompowsky, since it's objectively equal.
There's no consistency, rhyme or reason in your argument. Fundamentally you are just an arrogant and somewhat dogmatic / dense individual and honestly - after 40+ years of chess and the amount of time you've put into this, the fact you're not rated higher than 2100 is actually very unimpressive to me. You're nothing special, and I can just inspect your thought process and tell that. It is incoherent, shallow, and very predictable.
Keep trying though