What are the odds?

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Avatar of Mike_Kalish

So I've played roughly 500 games in the last 5 months or so. There are a few opponents I've played twice..... but there's one guy I've now played 6 times. With the millions of players on here, that seems "out there".   All my games are 60 min. rapid, and I have it set so I play opponents within 200 points of my rating. 
Is there some reason, beyond coincidence, that he and I get matched up so frequently?

Avatar of idilis
OldSpooky wrote:

*Snip* Unfortunately for me Jessie wins every time...😂

Just don't mess with his girl, if you're Rick, unless you're Ric.

Avatar of Chuck639

I run into the same names in the 1200-1500 bracket tournaments.

I am guessing 60 minutes is a small segment that there I am not surprised. Timing makes a big difference too.

I would like to know when the “easier” games are at?

Kind of like poker, the late games with drunks are the money games not earlier regulars who are tough and tight.

Avatar of GeorgeWyhv14

The odds are higher if you play a certain time constraint since both wants to learn a longer time control.

Avatar of Mike_Kalish

When I look at my stats, it tells me that there are roughly 2 million players on c.c that are rater higher than me. I have assumed that was just players in the rapid time control. Is that not true? That would mean there are more than 10 million players. So it still seems unlikely that I'd pull the same opponent multiple times randomly. 

Avatar of chaotikitat

~80 % use 10+0, minority uses 10+5, 15+10, 45+45 and 60+0

theres a decent amount of 30+0 players too

Avatar of chaotikitat

15+10 is up there yeah, but 10+0 is above all else for rapid 

Avatar of tygxc

@1
"With the millions of players"
++ There are not millions who play at the same time as you, play the same 60|0 time control, and the same rating within +/- 200.
If you were to play sometimes morning, afternoon, night, play a popular time control like 10|0, and set a ratong range of +/- 400, then it would be less likely.

Avatar of Mike_Kalish
tygxc wrote:

@1
"With the millions of players"
++ There are not millions who play at the same time as you, play the same 60|0 time control, and the same rating within +/- 200.
If you were to play sometimes morning, afternoon, night, play a popular time control like 10|0, and set a ratong range of +/- 400, then it would be less likely.

That brings up another question..... when I apply the math to what percentile I'm in and what my actual numerical standing is, it tells me that there are 12 million players in my group.  
I'm not sure what group that is. All my games are rapid / 60 minute games, so is it the group of rapid players, the group of 60 minute rapid players, or .......? Certainly 12 million can't represent the whole universe of chess.com players, can it?

Avatar of dude0812
mikekalish wrote:

So I've played roughly 500 games in the last 5 months or so. There are a few opponents I've played twice..... but there's one guy I've now played 6 times. With the millions of players on here, that seems "out there".   All my games are 60 min. rapid, and I have it set so I play opponents within 200 points of my rating. 
Is there some reason, beyond coincidence, that he and I get matched up so frequently?

I was paired with the same guy 6 or 7 times in a row on lichess. No, I was not sending him a rematch, nor he was sending me rematches. We just got paired 7 times in a row.

Avatar of dude0812

If you don't believe me I can send you the links to games.

Avatar of Mike_Kalish
dude0812 wrote:

If you don't believe me I can send you the links to games.

Of course I believe you. I think after 3 in a row or so, I would have politely refused more rematches....depends. Hopefully, you were evenly matched and had interesting and competitive games.

Avatar of dude0812
mikekalish wrote:
dude0812 wrote:

If you don't believe me I can send you the links to games.

Of course I believe you. I think after 3 in a row or so, I would have politely refused more rematches....depends. Hopefully, you were evenly matched and had interesting and competitive games.

Yes, he won 4 to 3, in fact, I had a winning score against him all along (1-0, 2-1, 3-2) and we kept getting paired (I wasn't sending him rematches, he wasn't sending me rematches, I would click on new game and get paired with him 7 times in a row). The first time he took the lead (4-3) we were no longer getting paired, I clicked on a new game once again, but this time I was paired with someone else.

Avatar of Mike_Kalish
dude0812 wrote:
mikekalish wrote:
dude0812 wrote:

If you don't believe me I can send you the links to games.

Of course I believe you. I think after 3 in a row or so, I would have politely refused more rematches....depends. Hopefully, you were evenly matched and had interesting and competitive games.

Yes, he won 4 to 3, in fact, I had a winning score against him all along (1-0, 2-1, 3-2) and we kept getting paired (I wasn't sending him rematches, he wasn't sending me rematches, I would click on new game and get paired with him 7 times in a row). The first time he took the lead (4-3) we were no longer getting paired, I clicked on a new game once again, but this time I was paired with someone else.

I have no idea of how Lichess works....I assume similarly to chess.com. Looks like you're a rather highly ranked player, so maybe there aren't a lot of players at your level? That seems unlikely, but so does 7 in a row......

Avatar of chaotikitat
Jeffrey-SB написав:
dude0812 wrote:
mikekalish wrote:

So I've played roughly 500 games in the last 5 months or so. There are a few opponents I've played twice..... but there's one guy I've now played 6 times. With the millions of players on here, that seems "out there".   All my games are 60 min. rapid, and I have it set so I play opponents within 200 points of my rating. 
Is there some reason, beyond coincidence, that he and I get matched up so frequently?

I was paired with the same guy 6 or 7 times in a row on lichess. No, I was not sending him a rematch, nor he was sending me rematches. We just got paired 7 times in a row.

lichess has like 5 users so im not suprised

~35 thousand * average 

Avatar of chaotikitat

The 60+0 pool is relatively small, so if you have anything range there’s a good chance you could get paired more than once 

Avatar of llama36
mikekalish wrote:

So I've played roughly 500 games in the last 5 months or so. There are a few opponents I've played twice..... but there's one guy I've now played 6 times. With the millions of players on here, that seems "out there".   All my games are 60 min. rapid, and I have it set so I play opponents within 200 points of my rating. 
Is there some reason, beyond coincidence, that he and I get matched up so frequently?

Simply the fact that you don't play at random times during the day cuts it down quite a lot... or to put it another way, there are certain hours during which you never play chess... there are certain users you will never be matched with.

Avatar of tygxc

@14
"it tells me that there are 12 million players in my group."
++ The group of rapid rated players. When you play 1 h/day, you cover only 1/24 of the pool.

"All my games are rapid / 60 minute games"
++ 60|0 is an uncommon time control. 10|0 is more popular. 15|10 is better for progress.
There is also 10|5, 20|0, 30|0. So your time control covers less than 1/6 of the pool.

"so is it the group of rapid players" ++ Yes, the group of rapid rated players.
Mind some are rapid rated, but play little rapid and more blitz / bullet.

"12 million can't represent the whole universe of chess.com players"
++ The whole universe of chess.com rapid rated players.

You are ranked #1947853, Percentile 83.5% of all rapid rated players.

Avatar of Chan_Fry

I can't get paired with *anyone* at 10+5, and I assume it's because no one else is seeking that time control. So I assume 60+0 would be similar. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if you got the the same opponent many times in a row.

Avatar of Knights_of_Doom

Too bad because 10+5 is perfect for me.