@1
"what is my probability of reaching 1800 ELO after a few years?"
++ 100% to reach 2000 in 1 year if you do the right and refrain from doing the wrong.
"when I play against bots" ++ Do not play weakened bots. They err, but in a non-human way.
"if my disconnected games do not count" ++ Inquire about better internet connection
"if I play one game everyday, I win on Game 1, lose on Game 2, win on Game 3 and so on."
++ You win, gain rating, get a stronger opponent, lose, lose rating, get a weaker opponent.
"I decided to play every two days" ++ No, play one 15|10 game every day if you can.
"I decided to always play against higher rated opponents" ++ Good. You lose more, learn more.
"I'm still not ready to play against humans" ++ Yes, you are.
"how should I improve?" ++ Analyse your lost games and learn from your mistakes.
Study annotated grandmaster games. Study endgames.
According to my stats and games, what is my probability of reaching 1800 ELO after a few years?
I've noticed that when I play against bots I can concentrate and play better than while playing with humans. There are a few cases where I lose in a winning position because I disconnected, or even when I do not have time to continue playing. This has happened at least 3 times, and I've calculated that if my disconnected games do not count I would've been 939 (922+11+6) ELO when I wrote this.
Besides, I've found a pattern in my games where if I play one game everyday, I win on Game 1, lose on Game 2, win on Game 3 and so on. So I decided to play every two days, but it still goes on. Then I decided to always play against higher rated opponents and gain more than I lose, but I still lose. Recently I've been practising with bots and achieved nice results, but I'm still not ready to play against humans.
Therefore, how should I improve? I know I'm a lot away from 1800 ELO but seriously. I need a lot of help now. I'm sorry if this post causes any inconvenience, but thank you for reading.