All things Candidates 2016

Martin Bennedik's spreadsheet sorting out the way to the Candidates:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11U_0gAderuRhKuD2hr7GO_Ks9D3tX_v87ftKk2XN4zQ/pubhtml

Players originating from the old USSR have dominated the Candidates the last years. In both 2011 and 2013 seven of the eight participants were born in the Soviet Union, while 2014 had six of eight (four Russians plus Aronian and Mamedyarov).

For 2016 Anand, Caruana and Nakamura are the three players to already be qualified, and the rating spots could go to Topalov and Giri. Then there will be two players from the World Cup (September/October), and one organiser spot.

Even if it could be the first Candidates ever without participants representing ex-Soviet countries, it is more probable that the event will be held in Russia, and many strong Russians also hope to qualify in the World Cup (Karjakin, Kramnik, Grischuk, Svidler). But the WC finalists could also be for example So and Vachier-Lagrave, or Chinese players.

The Candidates field:

Anand

Caruana

Nakamura

(Topalov)

(Giri)

World Cup winner

World Cup runner up

Organiser spot (2725+ on the July 2015 list)

I think it would be nice and refreshing to have a Chinese player in the Candidates. Considering their performance in the last year, it's far from impossible.

With so many strong Chinese players the chances should be decent that one of the World Cup finalists could be Chinese. As for the rating spots it must now be close to impossible for Topalov to miss out on one of them. Even if he loses his remaining games this year his rating on the first eight lists will be high enough to secure him one of the two spots.

As for the World Cup:

http://www.chess.com/forum/view/general/predictions-for-the-2015-chess-world-cup

Sorry about the shameless plug.

One recent development is that Aronian apparently has agreed to play the World Cup in Azerbaijan, a few years ago things sounded differently:

http://www.chessvibes.com/?q=reports/levon-aronian-i-cannot-play-the-candidates-in-azerbaijan

If I got things right Giri must drop 43 points between the November and December lists to miss out on the second rating spot after Topalov. Kramnik isn't scheduled to play, at least not yet, while Giri has Bilbao and the European Team Championships. The results from the European Club Cup should be included on the November list.

So it is likely that Giri will get the second rating spot, and I guess the Candidates field will look like this:

Anand

Caruana

Nakamura

Karjakin

Svidler

Topalov

Giri

Kramnik

The latter will probably get the organiser spot if the event is held in Russia as usual.

Kramnik deserves a spot I think : he pulled off great performances both in the European teams (4/5 !) and in the Blitz World championship.

It probably won't be enough to pass Giri, but he is coming close...

Kirsan said in a press conference at the start of the last Candidates that it was important that a Russian won it and went on to also beat Carlsen, and the more players they had in the field the bigger the chances of the desired outcome were, as he put it. Also then an extra Russian was included thanks to the event being held in Russia, but in the end it was Anand who won it. Maybe Kirsan will get what he wants this time instead, I have a feeling Karjakin will be dangerous, but hold Caruana as the favourite.

Now if the head of FIDE had said something similar at the start of Curacao 1962 I would understand some of the Fischer fans better than I do :-)