Can Anyone Become Grandmaster?

No, not everyone can become a gm, even with all the training in the world. I could never get to 1500, even with all the studying and effort 3-4 or so years back. That's like saying, can anyone bench 600 lb, even with anabolics, you have to be gifted and will probably have to weight over 220 lb to do the lift.

Another interesting article on training talented young children in China: http://www.chesscafe.com/text/miles05.pdf

No, it is not true that anybody can become a grandmaster no matter how much he/she loves chess and how hard he/she is willing to work. In fact probably 98% of the world's population can never become a grandmaster. 

This is reality.

Here is a striking account of Paul Morphy's natural aptitude/talent for chess:

"His astonishing achievements appeared to cost him no effort. Analyses that would require weeks of laborious study on the part of the greatest masters, he would make as rapidly  as his eyes could look over the squares. His eight or ten blindfold games, played simultaneously against strong players, appeared to require no more attention than the perusal of a book or paper. With rare exceptions, he appeared to know intuitively the strongest moves that could be made. His uncle, Ernest Morphy, during his visit to Cincinnati many years ago, told me how Paul, when a child, would suddenly drop  his knife and fork at the table and set up on the checkered table-cloth a problem that had suddenly sprung into his head, using the cruets, salt0cellars and napkin rings for pieces. I asked his if his nephew was remarkable for anything else than his peculiar aptitude for chess, and I recollect that he stated, among other things, that after his return from a strange opera he could hum or whistle it from beginning to end."

(http://www.edochess.ca/batgirl/morphybio14.html)

Actually 98% is optimistic. The roughly 1500 GM's in the world as against the 7.1 billion world population as of 2013 would get you a good idea just how many have been successful in the grand pursuit of the ultimate chess lover's desire! 

Various nations have tried to create Grandmaster factories. The Soviet experiment involved millions of school children. Yes, they were successful in creating a few grandmasters, but the overwhelming majority failed even to reach 2200 strength!

The famous case of the Polgar sisters seems to ignore the fact that Laszlo Polgar was a psychologist and excellent chess player himself and he chose his mate because she was also extremely bright and willing to subject her children to his experiment. The raw materials they started with were pretty exceptional already.

The problem with the Polgar example is not only the exceptional conditions, but also the fact that they started virtually just out of the cradle, which probably not a single poster here did.

And it gave "only" one regular GM out of three, despite all the stars being aligned.

Again, the Polgar sisters are the proof that talent matters.

Unless you insist that they have not been given the best training (...), only one in three became a GM with all the best conditions.

Now what percentage could become a GM if trained very hard, say starting from age 15 ? Who knows ? 0.001%, 0.1%, 10% maybe, but certainly not 100%.

an interesting issue but say for argument's sake that 10% of people who wanted to could become a GM.   Word gets out, people start doing it, and suddenly there are a bunch of really good players dumped into the "system".   The new players leech points off the current GMS ... then what?  If enough people do it, the entire GM pool of rating points could drop 300 points or whatever, the best players might go from over 2500 to below it or whatever if *enough* folks took the plunge and the points were dilluted.   Not a huge deal but an interesting side effect if it were to turn out that becoming a gm simply took a lot of time and study, rather than some sort of rare talent...

I know 98% is way too conservative [as to the percentage of people who could not become grandmasters]  Since most were indicating the other way I used a conservative percentage.  Actual percentage would probably be something like 99.8% of the population could not become a grandmaster. 

Two of the three sisters are GMs.

If I knew everything I know now back when I was 12 then I could be =(

"The problem with the Polgar example is not only the exceptional conditions, but also the fact that they started virtually just out of the cradle, which probably not a single poster here did."

I think Judith had every Fischer game shoved down her throat since her play has a very obvious Fischer influence and probably read the same books as him. 

Yes, 2 out of 3:

http://ratings.fide.com/card.phtml?event=700088

Zsuzsa Polgar: GM, WGM

http://ratings.fide.com/card.phtml?event=700070

Judit Polgar: GM

http://ratings.fide.com/card.phtml?event=700231

Sofía Polgar: IM, WGM

It starts with an intention, why not give it a go 

I thought that only Judit achieved a regular GM title, the other is WGM. But I stand corrected.

Anyways, the argument still holds, it's "only" two-thirds, when remember, they have had the most intensive training possible, or close of it.

From Susan Polgar's (archived) column in Chess Cafe:

                         How was a Grandmaster born?

Everyone who wants to do something in a professional way knows well that success does not come easy. One has to work hard to achieve his goals and has to give up some of the comforts he is used to. When I was a child, the situation was quite the same and I learned this lesson at an early age.

I started playing at the age of 4. First, I learned the basics: the name of the squares, the pieces, the openings and the endings from my father. I was only 6 years old when a friend of our family asked me to give a simultaneous for a group of journalists during an event. Everybody was surprised when I defeated six of the eleven players and drew with three others.

(written by Hungarian GM Imre Hera in http://www.chesscafe.com/text/polgar69.pdf)

Well I can only relate what I am familiar with. In our country the Philippines we have 15 GM's, 25 IM's and about 76 titled players. I had a hustler friend who makes a living by playing chess going from one town to another betting on games, who is of the opinion that not all of that 25 IM's and 76 titled players will make it to GM. 

In fact FIDE realized this not long ago and changed the rules to make it more friendly to make GM. It used to be that there was a certain time limit to get all three GM norms. They changed that, now it doesn't matter when or how far apart you get those norms as long as you get those three GM norms and a performance rating of 2500.

If you think about it, how come some titled players haven't reached GM yet? Just like my friend and people who are already 'there' they don't even bother to ask the question. If you make it, Congratulations! if not better luck next time...

No

Interesting column on some differences between how grandmasters and amateurs, respectively, prepare for their games: " ... people have linked hard work to success and are convinced that the former is a prerequisite of the latter. In many fields this may be true, but the evidence indicates otherwise in chess. Most GMs have just played lots of chess and analysed their games because it was fun! I have read a few books from cover to cover, but many of my colleagues have not." -GM Nigel Davies (http://www.chesscafe.com/text/davies26.pdf)

More of GM Nigel Davies' thoughts on early talent vs future success: http://chessimprover.com/talent-identification/