can magnus carlson cross the 3000 elo barrier

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eddysallin
samzworldz wrote:

hmm close shave for carlsen somehow he managed to escape...........hez a genius.........

All Grandmasters know how to win.The great ones understand" how not too lose".

cyberdynsystemsmodel
eddysallin wrote:
samzworldz wrote:

hmm close shave for carlsen somehow he managed to escape...........hez a genius.........

All Grandmasters know how to win.The great ones understand" how not too lose".

true buddy.....last time he draw a lost game against anish giri..in wi kan jee
i hope he wins this tourney

Eoin_From_Eire

He is young, and I think he has the ability. He just needs to do two things, Stop drawing so often, and get as obsessed as bobby fischer lol. I think if he really put his mind to it and went all out for wins, not as many draws, but kept a logical thought process, I think he could.

cyberdynsystemsmodel

hmmm lets c wat he does this year i see surprices in store

Jion_Wansu

Can magnus carlsen cross the 3000 elo barrier?

Why not?

SmyslovFan
Jion_Wansu wrote:
Can magnus carlsen cross the 3000 elo barrier?

Why not?

Math.

Work out exactly what a person would have to do to cross 3000 elo. 

To save you time, he would have to score 75% against 2800s to have a 3000 performance. To break 3000, he would need to have significantly higher performances in order to raise his rating up to that level.

SmyslovFan

Stig, there seems to be some real confusion regarding calculating draws.

Draws count!

Scoring 75% includes draws. If you win three games, your opponent wins 1 game, it's 75% only if you played 4 games. If you played 100 games, it's 51% (96 draws).

75% of 12 games (the length of this match) means that Carlsen would have to win 9-3. It doesn't matter whether he wins 9 and loses 3 or wins 6 and draws 6.

Martin0
SmyslovFan wrote:

To break 3000, he would need to have significantly higher performances in order to raise his rating up to that level.

That is slightly not true. He needs a better performance than his current rating to gain rating points and how much he gains is dependent on how much higher the performance is and how many games he played. If he played many games in one rating period it is possible to get a higher rating than the performance.

Imagine we have a player rated 2100 with a K-factor of 30 (played less than 30 games). For one month he got the opportunity to play 2 games with Carlsen each day. He was a very solid players and managed to draw all 62 games! His performance rating is 2872 (same as Carlsens rating), but his rating rose by +930 giving him a new rating of 3030.

SmyslovFan

You're wrong, Martin unless you presume the 62 games to all be from a single event. 

But we aren't talking about someone with a soft rating. We're talking about Magnus Carlsen.

Martin0

Yes I am talking of a single event. I used an extreme case as an example, but theoretically if Carlsen has a rating of 2990 and get a performane of 2999 it is possible his rating can rise to 3000+. However when I think about it practically I think it requires too many games since the k-factor is too low (10).

cyberdynsystemsmodel

hmmmm

cyberdynsystemsmodel

HMMMM WATS the progress guys

learningthemoves

He did it. Smile

cyberdynsystemsmodel
learningthemoves wrote:

He did it.

hmmmm  when????

GMVillads

Of course not

idreesarif
learningthemoves wrote:

He did it.

No he didn't ........ though he did get a provisional 3000+ USCF rating as a result of his performance at St. loius tournament !

cyberdynsystemsmodel

hmmmm maN he is now 2870 i guess

learningthemoves
idreesarif wrote:
learningthemoves wrote:

He did it.

No he didn't ........ though he did get a provisional 3000+ USCF rating as a result of his performance at St. loius tournament !

That's the 3000 elo rating I was talking about. It wasn't just a "performance" rating, but an actual provisional rating, correct?

pfren

Nobody cares about USCF ratings. Factly, all national ratings should be promptly dismissed- there is no point keeping a rating system other than FIDE's when information exchange is so simple in the year 2013.

Lucidish_Lux

Speaking as someone from the US, I care about USCF ratings in that they determine which section I play in. Aside from that, pfren is right, they really don't matter. They're known to be inflated compared to FIDE, and Carlsen's is provisional anyway.

That said, it's pretty amusing, but that's about it.