Kasparov's 2800 break seemed incredible at the time. Now we have 7 players which broke this mark. Also Fischer's 2700, nowadays there are 50 such players. It's completely natural, but I guess you can't players from different eras. Again, back to Kasparov, he won the tourney 7,5/10 and his performance was 2800 in late 1980s. Carlsen scores 6,5/10 and easily passes Kasparov. Better? Nope, but nature will bring Carlsen to 2925-2950 I guess. Once.
Carlsen and the quest for 2900
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If inflation is so bad why are there only two 2800+ players? Think about Nigel short there. Being 3rd in the world at 2650. Well, there are MANY players much better than him now... Kasparov and Karpov were significantly better than him, and they were both rated at 2851 and 2780 respectively. Now, we have several extremely strong top players. Guys like Kramnik and Anand beat Short down, but we have guys now that are even STRONGER than those two!! It's only natural that their ratings would be higher... People on here talk like you just sign up in FIDE and start at 2000 and then after a few weeks you're 2600.
Agreed, I think the top players now would thrash the top players in the 80s (apart from Kasparov & Karpov).
Anand would probably beat himself from 1995 when he challenged Kasparov.
Kasparov and Karpov are probably the only players from the 80s who would give Carlsen a hard time if they played Carlsen now. If they were born 30 years later they would be even more terrifying, and both would probably break 2900. It's interesting to think about.
I wonder how much their development and brain neurons are different because they weren't brought up with computers, and instead had to do it all manually?
Conversely, I wonder if Carlsen would have been suited to manual learning, instead of via computer? It's probably fair to say innate chess ability would thrive in any era, but this must play a factor, somewhat.
Apr 30, 2014
0
#105
PDubya, I read an interview with Carlsen when they said that he avoided computers as much as possible, and that was one of the reasons (in addition to "lax work ethic") why Kasparov stopped working with him.
GmPrice wrote:
If inflation is so bad why are there only two 2800+ players?
And it will only be one if #2 repeats his latest performance in his next event. Numbers haven't changed much for the still active top players from the 90s:
Ivanchuk was 2740 in 1995 and is 2753 today
Kamsky was 2745 in 1996 and is 2713 today
Topalov was 2750 in 1996 and is 2772 today
Kramnik was 2775 in 1996 and 2783 today
Anand was 2795 in 1998 and is 2785 today
May 1, 2014
0
#107
PDubya wrote:
Agreed, I think the top players now would thrash the top players in the 80s (apart from Kasparov & Karpov).
Anand would probably beat himself from 1995 when he challenged Kasparov.
Kasparov and Karpov are probably the only players from the 80s who would give Carlsen a hard time if they played Carlsen now. If they were born 30 years later they would be even more terrifying, and both would probably break 2900. It's interesting to think about.
I wonder how much their development and brain neurons are different because they weren't brought up with computers, and instead had to do it all manually?
Conversely, I wonder if Carlsen would have been suited to manual learning, instead of via computer? It's probably fair to say innate chess ability would thrive in any era, but this must play a factor, somewhat.
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I don't think Carlsen could do what he does today, back in the 80's. Carlsen coasts for 4 or 5 hours, and only then comes out in full force, after his opponent is fatigued. Much the same as an insurance salesman. (Howard Staunton was famous for such tactics as well.)
Back in the Karpov/Kasparov days, the game would be declared adjourned. Both players could go get something to eat, take a shower, look the game over in the comfort of their hotel room, and pick it up again fresh the next day.
I would be amazed if Carlsen could adapt.
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I think classical games do go on for too long, but there's not much we can do about it now, with computer engines ready to assist adjourned positions.
How funny would it be to have isolation chambers for all the players playing adjoured games. They could set up webcams and broadcast it live!
Carlsen is unlikely to attain 2900 in his home Norway Chess tournament. He'd require a result of 8/9, which is almost impossible to achieve, given 7 of the top 9 players in the world are competing.
Average ELO for this event is 2773.8, so an incredibly strong field!
carlsen's rating is 2881
nilanjanasm wrote:
carlsen's rating is 2881
Yes, Nilanjasam, I know that. This thread is about dedicated to speculating on the probability Carlsen will attain a rating of 2900. Given he is on 2881, as you so wisely point out, it seems like a topic worth discussing with the Chess community, many of whom are interested in ratings.
Jun 8, 2014
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#112
Updating this thread to account for Norway Chess 2014. Through the first 4 of 9 games, he is 2/4, which equates to a loss of 5.7 rating points. Down to 2875.3. He's also in a dead drawn position with white vs. Aronian in game 5, which if it pans out that way I believe will pull his rating down slightly more. Not the kind of tournament we've come to expect of Carlsen; he's in 3rd place currently.
To try to find a silver lining in this for Carlsen fans - his 4 remaining opponents are relatively weaker compared to the field. Svidler, Karjakin, Grischuk, and Agdestein. Not that any of those guys are "weak" players at all. But if he can produce a score of 3/4 vs. them he might be able to retain the rating he came into the tournament with or something close to it.
He will 90% drew Karjakin who drew 18/20 of his games in the last time I think.
Jun 8, 2014
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#114
Wow, Carlsen looking like he might eke a win out of game 5 afterall. Engine says roughly 1.75 pawns up as of move 70.
It's rather simple : currently, he need to score two points every three game to stay where he is. Any score over 66% will result in a small rating gain.
And he is perfectly able to do so.
How to get 5000?
Jun 8, 2014
0
#117
The game of Carlsen vs Aronian today was far from a dead drawn position at any point.
Jun 8, 2014
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#119
Carlsen won a beautiful endgame versus Aronian. The way he managed to lock Aronians king out of the game was just magic.
Jun 8, 2014
0
#120
AleksKo wrote:
The game of Carlsen vs Aronian today was far from a dead drawn position at any point.
at move 37 the engine evaluation was still less than 0.20. it wasn't until after the time control that Carlsen really got an edge he could press. I do think Carlsen's stamina/youth played a big factor in this game and am very excited for tomorrow's round. :)
Carlsen's final round win leaves his rate right back where he started at 2881. His next shot at the 2900 barrier comes in early June in his home tournament of Norway. The field for this event is extremely strong, so there's a chance he may get close.