I never said that Anand will win...
Carlsen and the quest for 2900
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PDubya wrote:
With the World Championship over, and Carlsen now the champion for the next two years, it's a chance to review where he stands in this so-called quest. His rating now stands at 2862, more than 27 points below his live high rating record, but with the chance to now relax and play without any pressure it's like we will see his rating rise again.
Ratings do not happen in a vacuum. The #1 factor keeping Magnus from 2900 is the ratings of his opponents.
We are going to need more rating inflation and maybe a dozen players over 2850 before we get anyone consistently over 2900.
It'll definitely happen, though. There's a great marketing incentive to always have a way to claim that the current world champion is "the greatest of all time" and inflated ratings are easiest way to make that case.
imirak wrote:
PDubya wrote:
With the World Championship over, and Carlsen now the champion for the next two years, it's a chance to review where he stands in this so-called quest. His rating now stands at 2862, more than 27 points below his live high rating record, but with the chance to now relax and play without any pressure it's like we will see his rating rise again.
Ratings do not happen in a vacuum. The #1 factor keeping Magnus from 2900 is the ratings of his opponents.
We are going to need more rating inflation and maybe a dozen players over 2850 before we get anyone consistently over 2900.
It'll definitely happen, though. There's a great marketing incentive to always have a way to claim that the current world champion is "the greatest of all time" and inflated ratings are easiest way to make that case.
Do you have any proof of existance of rating inflation?
tigerprowl5 wrote:
"Do you have any proof of existance of rating inflation?"
Yes. Look at the upcoming London Classic. Do you really think Michael Adams would be playing if it wasn't hosted by England?
I think it is great that he is playing, but don't import all the top players like Anand, Caruana, Nakamura, etc... then.
Let's see a London Classic with Hou Yifan, Michael Adams, Dimitry Jakovenko or Peter Svidler, Teimour Radjabov, and Vassily Ivanchuk.
They should have a lower rated mix of players from different countries, not the same big league sluggers from tournament to tournament. This is going to be a repeat of the Candidates and Sinquefield. Caruana is going to destroy Mickey and get an even higher rating than he should have.
Oh, come on) The fact that stronger player have higher chances to win doesn't mean rating inflation. Kramnik just make two draws, and Naiditsch lost twice to much lower rated players. Does that mean rating deftlation?
Secondly, Adams isn't really weak - you can't call top14 player weak. I'm sure he will win some games there. Remember Agdenstein playing in Norway chess? :) And he was really much weaker.
That's exactly what rating means - Adams is weaker than Carauna. But if the rating is correct, Adams will score around 1/3 points - something like two draw out of three games with Caruana-level players. The higher is rating the less you get for win and lose more for a draw...
I've heard different proofs about rating inflation, but, sorry to say that, what you said is just nonsense.
Nov 28, 2014
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#166
PDubya wrote:
With the World Championship over, and Carlsen now the champion for the next two years, it's a chance to review where he stands in this so-called quest. His rating now stands at 2862, more than 27 points below his live high rating record, but with the chance to now relax and play without any pressure it's like we will see his rating rise again.
His next outing appears to be Tata Steel, up against Caruana, Aronian, Giri, So, Vachier-Lagrave, Ding Liren, Ivanchuk, Radjabov, Jobava, Saric, Hou.
This should be a good tournament for him to relax, and possibly have some good wins. His opponents will have an average rating of around 2730, so he will want to avoid too many draws. 7.5/11 will be his required performance to maintain his rating.
It's highly likely Carlsen only plays for the tournament title. He doens't really have anything left to prove now, though a 2900 rating would almost certainly solidify his place at, or near the very top of the pantheon.
7.5 of 11 would be impressive. It would seem that he either must score extremely high with wins, and/or his opponents must have ratings increase, in order to reach that magical number.
thanks for a great post.
GmPrice wrote:
JohnnyKGB wrote:
Carlsen 2900 , you must be kidding, this guy is finished. At this moment , Carlsen is only marketing, he still a decent player, but no so good like Caruana, Vishy Anand (remember my words for the world championship) or any chess programm.
You can see yourself http://www.2700chess.com/
Somebody is butthurt.
Rememebered his words though... XD
There is a definite rise in the rankings of very top players, but I don't know whether this is ratings inflation so much as a rating bubble created by the top players only playing the same players over and over again, and getting their number so to speak.
I think that's partly why Caruana rose so much, so quickly, and he only crashed a bit due to fatigue from back to back Grands Prix.
Caruana, Grischuk and Topalov have secured 2800 ratings now, and Aronian and Anand are still around that level. Giri is also making a rapid ascent on that peak as well. This time in a year it's possible we'll see up to 7 players over 2800, so if Carlsen only plays against these guys his chances of 2900 will increase, because they are still the same guys he's always played and beaten.
The upcoming Tata Steel will actually be quite a tough event for him because draws will cost him more than usual...
PDubya wrote:
There is a definite rise in the rankings of very top players, but I don't know whether this is ratings inflation so much as a rating bubble created by the top players only playing the same players over and over again, and getting their number so to speak.
I think that's partly why Caruana rose so much, so quickly, and he only crashed a bit due to fatigue from back to back Grands Prix.
Caruana, Grischuk and Topalov have secured 2800 ratings now, and Aronian and Anand are still around that level. Giri is also making a rapid ascent on that peak as well. This time in a year it's possible we'll see up to 7 players over 2800, so if Carlsen only plays against these guys his chances of 2900 will increase, because they are still the same guys he's always played and beaten.
The upcoming Tata Steel will actually be quite a tough event for him because draws will cost him more than usual...
What if Carlsen wins every single round at Tata Steel...
Based on the current live ratings Carlsen would end up on 2899.3 if he scores 11/11 in the Tata Steel tournament. This of course won't happen, but it's scary to think that even if he did he'd not attain 2900.
I think it is only a matter of time for Carlsen to be the first to reach 2900. But I can't see much more than that.
3000 isn't impossible in his lifetime if rating inflation keeps going like that.
Anand was 46 years old when he played this last match against Carlsen, Carlsen is 24 now. If he has even 20 years remaining in top tier chess then 3000 surely isnt out of the question.
Personally though I think some other player (who is too young these days to be recognized) will come along and take the throne from him long before that.
EvgeniyZh wrote:
imirak wrote:
PDubya wrote:
With the World Championship over, and Carlsen now the champion for the next two years, it's a chance to review where he stands in this so-called quest. His rating now stands at 2862, more than 27 points below his live high rating record, but with the chance to now relax and play without any pressure it's like we will see his rating rise again.
Ratings do not happen in a vacuum. The #1 factor keeping Magnus from 2900 is the ratings of his opponents.
We are going to need more rating inflation and maybe a dozen players over 2850 before we get anyone consistently over 2900.
It'll definitely happen, though. There's a great marketing incentive to always have a way to claim that the current world champion is "the greatest of all time" and inflated ratings are easiest way to make that case.
Do you have any proof of existance of rating inflation?
http://members.shaw.ca/redwards1/
http://en.chessbase.com/post/rating-inflation-its-causes-and-poible-cures
asknotaxe wrote:
3000 isn't impossible in his lifetime if rating inflation keeps going like that.
Anand was 46 years old when he played this last match against Carlsen, Carlsen is 24 now. If he has even 20 years remaining in top tier chess then 3000 surely isnt out of the question.
It took 40 years for the top handful of players to move from 2700 to 2800. So, 2850 to 3000 in 20 years for Carlsen as the top outlier in the pool? Highly doubtful unless FIDE tampers with the ratings rules somehow.
A 3000 rating is definitely "possible" in Carlsen's lifetime...like when he is 85 and watching the WCC on a 90" holographic TV ;)...but it won't be Carlsen.
With Carlsen on a 5-game winning streak at Wijk aan Zee his quest for 2900 has resumed in earnest in 2015. Had he not had such a slow start to the tournament he might already be in touching distance of this milestone. As it stands, he is already back up to 2870 in the live ratings, and is strongly poised push his official rating higher.
The table below shows projects where his rating might end up should be continue his streak to the end of this tournament.
Following Tata Steel, Carlsen will be up against it again in Grenke against:
- Magnus Carlsen, World Champion (rated: 2862), 24, Norway
- Fabiano Caruana, World no. 2 (2820), 22, Italy
- Viswanathan Anand, World no. 5 (2797), 45, India
- Levon Aronian, World no. 6 (2797), 32, Armenia
- Michael Adams, World no. 17 (2738), 43, England
- Etienne Bacrot, World no. 39 (2711), 31, France
- Arkadij Naiditsch, World no. 49 (2694), 29, Germany
- David Baramidze, World no. 236 (2594), 26, Germany
A strong showing here might push him into the 2890s for the first time, meaning we could see him challenge for 2900 in Norway in June, or perhaps at another tournament before then.
Radjabov is getting back to his old form, so will be a stern test. Most likely a draw. I think he'll beat Ivanchuk in Round 10. Chucky has had a good run, but seems to be going off the boil now. Of course, you never know with him. MVL will be tough. He's playing really well and might even upset Carlsen, as is Ding Liren. Saric shouldn't be too difficult for Carlsen.
If he finishes +1 for the remaining rounds that should be good enough for the tournament victory, which I'm sure is all he cares about.
AN ONGOING DISCUSSION TRACKING CARLSEN'S QUEST FOR 2900
Magnus Carlsen began 2015 on Elo 2862. His performance at Tata Steel raised it slightly to 2865. Now, he faces another 7 rounds against mostly highly rated opponents in his ongoing quest for 2900.
With a slew of challengers closing in on 2800, his chances of cracking this mythical milestone increase. Whether one believes this rating level is inflated, or meaningless compared to winning titles and the World Championship, it nonetheless represents uncharted territory in the Chess imagination.
Can he reach this summit in 2015? Will he reach it in 2016, or later, or will he never quite get there? Will another young challenger such as Caruana, or Giri or So get there first?
This thread will track progress towards this Everest of chess, so stay tuned and follow the fortunes of those at the pinnacle of chess, right here!
Carlsen plays Bacrot in the last round of the GRENKE classic tomorrow.
Should he win he will be champion of the tournament regardless, based on superior tie-break, which he always seems to achieve. One assumes this is because he tends to win more, and win with black, which seems to be a more popular tie-break rule than the SB system. I agree with wins being rewarded more. It encourages more exciting play.
Based on the three possible results tomorrow, Carlsen's rating will be either W = 2868, D = 2863 or L = 2858.
It's impressive that he has managed to maintain this rating over two very tough tournaments this year. We have seen how tough a 2830+ rating is to maintain with Caruana shedding 39 points, and Aronian a whopping 60 from their peak live ratings!
After this event Carlsen takes a break it seems. When will he play next? No doubt before Norway. Perhaps the Gashimov Memorial, though that is not yet listed on 2700chess.com ...
Carlsen, to me, is the greatest ever. However it is a long way from 2868 to 2900. So, he may never reach 2900. Or he might in the next 3 or so years.
Carlsen, currently has a weakness in tactics which his opponents have not exploited. He needs to be much more careful with his tactics so he can reach 2900.
Carlsen, won Tata Steel by 1/2 point over 4 other very strong players. However he started with 2 draws and a loss and then played Caruana. Carlsen won that game but Caruana missed a strong chess tactic. If Caruana had found the tactic then no way Carlsen would have won that tournament.
I will say a 65/35 chance that Carlsen reaches 2900.
Carlsen's next event looks set to be the 2015 Gashimov Memorial. The field for this event looks amazing, with an average ELO currently at 2789.
A really interesting mix of young guns and old pros here, with almost no one in between. It's almost a clash of the generations!
Prediction is another Carlsen win, but at this stage Kramnik has gone back to being an unknown quantity given his lack of play recently (apart from a great showing in Qatar). Very much looking forward to this one!
Carlsen is a chess god?