I don’t really think cheating is a major problem these days. I’m rated ~2200 bother here on chess.com and elsewhere. 100+ blitz games in 2019 and I haven’t encountered anyone that plays in a remotely suspicious way. My guess is that the anti-cheating algorithm is a lot better these days.
Or perhaps the cheaters get bored of chess and devote themselves to Forntnite instead...
cheating idea
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Mar 18, 2019
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Played about 22,000 games here and 3000 in other sites( bullets+ blitz).
I didn't suspect anyone ever cheated a single game to me and did not get cheat report about my opponents.
I got a system message from chess.com about 5 years ago that " as your rating is 2000+ now, our system will monitor your games", which makes sense.
I think cheat system would focus on 2000+, 2500+ rated games.
4 player chess was not working today, so I did a few *2 player* games. I didn't have a strong suspicion of cheating, surprisingly. In the past it seemed rampant. I almost entirely stick to 4-player, because I'm unaware of any widely popular cheating software(yet). in 2 player it's always a concern because it would be SO easy to do.
I've read a few threads on here about cheating detection, that usually talk about comparing moves to a chess engine. They also talk about the likelihood that cheaters would have lower elos. Some people suggested if people were cheating, they would all have high elos. If it was extremely wide-spread which in the past I felt like it was, then everyones' elo would be lowered. Also, it's so easy to create an account, that it's hard to imagine the scale of people who sign up, play for a few months, then that's all. There is probably a constant stream of them, and some percentage of them would cheat. Also, every computer chess engine that lets you set elo, including the "play a computer" game here, is easy for me to crack 1400, as it is in 4-player, though in 2-player live chess it's nearly impossible for me to crack 1200.
I think a better idea than trying to classify a cheater and banning them is: give players suspicion-of-cheating ratings. and pair them similarly. e.g. if someone beats a player of a much higher elo, it would increase their suspicion-of-cheating rating, pair them with player that have similar suspicion ratings.