By definition: a rating system difference of 200 points is wrong 25 percent of the time.
Chess and Luck - Let's Hear Your Thoughts

By definition: a rating system difference of 200 points is wrong 25 percent of the time.
Without sounding arugmentative, did you quote that from a credible source ?
I have been going back and forth with a few others over whether there is a huge difference between 1800 and NM. I think that it is moderate to slight depending on certain factors. That bit of information could certainly help my case. To me a "huge" difference would be GM and 1800.

If my thoughts we amplified, it might be frightening for small children, the elderly and household pets....
I thought they were amplified -- you mean what we're seeing is the filtered version!?

from wikipedia:
In chess, for instance, if one player is rated 100 points higher than the other player, they are expected to win about five games out of eight,[citation needed] and the rating changes reflect that. Over a series of games, if a player does better than expected, based on the ratings (compared to the opponents'), his or her rating will go up.

What is luck? You looked at some games and your opponent plays the same? Your opponent did not make à winning move,.. I agree that the game includes no elements of luck. But in the hands of people, luck plays à role.

For me, "Luck" exists in chess tournaments. just today , i played a state level tournament for national level selection, and our team came 2nd on tiebreaks, as their team had won a match bcause a opposing player had gone home. they now got to the nationals..........

But that's not luck in chess, that's luck in tournament organization. That exact same scenario could have benefited you in the exact same way in a parcheesi tournament.

The rating changes is +or- 24 or +or- 8 between players rated
200 points apart or 3:1 odds! If the lower rated player wins
four straight the new ratings will be about equal.

Well, I'm afraid this discussion has now deteriorated into math.
Whoa -- prescience!

To be a forward as I can be, are you responsible for every thought that enters your mind, or instead how you react to each one?
I was actually meaning at the time, if you could audibly hear each thought aloud...
We are all bombarded by ideas, that we couldn't prevent from getting to our point of reasoning. It is up to us to invent the latest life saving gadget, after the idea is presented to us, or turn down the temptation to eat a few free grapes at the grocery store, after the idea is presented to us. Those are obviously just a few examples. I get tired of having bad ideas for things I could do to make my life worse, that enter my mind.
If we were really in control of everything that we either attained, retained or restrained, with regards to our brains, we would never forget to turn off the coffee pot, to not give into temptation to do wrong, or make everything we could ever want to improve our lot...

Yeah. And there I was, thinking he'd deleted his post in shame at having so deteriorated. Instead he just embellishes it.

People tend to confuse "luck" with "chance."
There is often a chance you could get lucky, but more likely, you won't have good luck, because chances are, either luck will have no bearing over the matter, or it will be misfortune instead. Most people don't count misforture as luck, even thought it is still luck, just not the kind they prefer. I feel you have made a similar comparison with luck and chance.

But that's not luck in chess, that's luck in tournament organization. That exact same scenario could have benefited you in the exact same way in a parcheesi tournament.
That makes me want to "die" laughing... about the Parchesi comparison... it is even better than Backgammon.
Sometimes you probably wish I would... "die"...but, no dice...
There is no luck in the way chess theory is associated with game play, but as soon as the human element is added, they bring luck with them, good and bad.

Wanted : lost dog
White fur, lost one eye fighting with the cat, lost one leg under a truck, was castrated at age of one,... Answers to the name of : Lucky

There was one lucky day that I had. I believe I was either way on form or he was waaaay off. In a tournament match, I was playing from a 500 point deficit and I took 3.5/4. I thought that was quite lucky!

I would also argue that the game of chess doesn't exist without humans to recognize it as a game of chess. Thus, this 'pure' chess that supposedly exists independent of the humans who play it is a fallacy. As humans are subject to a seemingly infinite number of 'outside circumstances' that affect their mental state at the moment of play, chess seems almost entirely a game of luck.
Edit add: certainly it seems to function much as a non-linear system with a great deal of chaos within a finite number of choices. Perhaps the best great chess players can hope for is to minimize the chaos within the game.
I'm coming around to believing chess has about 5% to do with skill and about 95% to do with 'outside circumstances' that affect the psychology of you and your opponents.
Quite often we are paired with people about the same rating. Why does one player take the time to check the possibilities for the right move, while the other doesn't ? Is the rating system that flawed ?
Sometimes I get confused determining the right moves, why ? SOmetimes I find the right move, or tactical series and then forget, in c.c. Why?
It certainly could be those outside circumstances...