ty @paper_llama, that explains a lot 
Chess.com rating inflation
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May 16, 2023
0
#23
PathOfNerd wrote:
Professor_Gobbles wrote:
I've heard that there's been a big chess boom recently, does this effect the chess.com rating system? Has elo on chess.com become even more inflated than it was about a year ago?
Yes, it does.
For example around 6 months ago top 20000 on the leaderboard at blitz was around 2131. Now it's 2158. Top 15000 was around 2200, now it's 2219. Top 10000 was 2286 and now it's 2305.
For examlpe...
If 10 GMs join and also 1,000,000 beginners join...
Then the average rating will go down, and also your world rank # will go down by 10 (if your skill is between GM and beginner).
None of this is inflation / deflation though. If you were 1500 before the million and 10 joined, you'll still be 1500 after.
May 16, 2023
0
#26
PathOfNerd wrote:
paper_llama wrote:
PathOfNerd wrote:
Professor_Gobbles wrote:
I've heard that there's been a big chess boom recently, does this effect the chess.com rating system? Has elo on chess.com become even more inflated than it was about a year ago?
Yes, it does.
For example around 6 months ago top 20000 on the leaderboard at blitz was around 2131. Now it's 2158. Top 15000 was around 2200, now it's 2219. Top 10000 was 2286 and now it's 2305.
For examlpe...
If 10 GMs join and also 1,000,000 beginners join...
Then the average rating will go down, and also your world rank # will go down by 10 (if your skill is between GM and beginner).
None of this is inflation / deflation though. If you were 1500 before the million and 10 joined, you'll still be 1500 after.
Do you really think that those new players are GMs?
I think there are new players of every level, but the most common are people near beginner level.
May 16, 2023
0
#27
PathOfNerd wrote:
paper_llama wrote:
PathOfNerd wrote:
paper_llama wrote:
PathOfNerd wrote:
Professor_Gobbles wrote:
I've heard that there's been a big chess boom recently, does this effect the chess.com rating system? Has elo on chess.com become even more inflated than it was about a year ago?
Yes, it does.
For example around 6 months ago top 20000 on the leaderboard at blitz was around 2131. Now it's 2158. Top 15000 was around 2200, now it's 2219. Top 10000 was 2286 and now it's 2305.
For examlpe...
If 10 GMs join and also 1,000,000 beginners join...
Then the average rating will go down, and also your world rank # will go down by 10 (if your skill is between GM and beginner).
None of this is inflation / deflation though. If you were 1500 before the million and 10 joined, you'll still be 1500 after.
Do you really think that those new players are GMs?
I think there are new players of every level, but the most common are people near beginner level.
Cmon! Strong player ain't coming out of thin air. And, yes, new players usually are close to beginner level.
I kinda suspect that we have such an inflation on higher levels because of... cheaters! Those new players choose "easy path" quite often and start cheating. That why we have so many "new prodigies" in the last couple of months (the last wave).
So you're saying all new accounts are obviously beginners but also there appear to be so many new strong players that you believe there must be cheating. These are contradictory ideas.
You're not being serious, you're just saying things that sound fun.
TheDarkKnightShow wrote:
TheBestagons wrote:
@TheDarkKinghtShow why do you think players are getting stronger?
Lots of chess courses and YouTube videos, Chess.com game analysis report tool, engines for analysis and much more. Combination of these things are definitely responsible for helping lots of players improve. The players are definitely more knowledgeable than before.
Yes... chess technologies have advanced amazingly over the past few years.
Nice sahovnica!
May 16, 2023
0
#29
PathOfNerd wrote:
Not all of them are newbies. I would say the vast majority of them.
And, yes, the number of cheaters has increased dramatically. I have 3 players banned for cheating just on one page of my blitz games.
And there's nothing funny.
Yeah, more beginner kids = more cheating, sure.
Because points are refunded, cheating doesn't necessarily inflate or deflate ratings... I mean, it does one or the other, but it's hard to say which.
May 16, 2023
0
#30
Optimissed wrote:
Chess.com is deliberately inflating the ratings by starting new players off at silly ratings like 2200. It's basically theft of rating points.
In terms of inflation / deflation, starting rating is almost meaningless.
May 16, 2023
0
#31
Optimissed wrote:
paper_llama wrote:
PathOfNerd wrote:
Not all of them are newbies. I would say the vast majority of them.
And, yes, the number of cheaters has increased dramatically. I have 3 players banned for cheating just on one page of my blitz games.
And there's nothing funny.
Yeah, more beginner kids = more cheating, sure.
Because points are refunded, cheating doesn't necessarily inflate or deflate ratings... I mean, it does one or the other, but it's hard to say which.
They aren't always refunded because often the system doesn't work. Happened to me. But if a cheat plays a lot of games and gets a high rating, simply closing his account will give a lot of people free wins that they didn't earn, so that's inflationary too.
Yeah, it's hard to say... I guess some cheaters inflate and others deflate.
I mean... there are many who cheat for a few games then abandon the account... I know because I've reported some and I check back now and then. They're not closed, but they also stopped playing (probably because cheating is very boring).
Optimissed wrote:
Cheating is probably less boring if your intention is to cheat. There may be people who want to cheat at anything and everything. Just like there are people who like to work but also people who like to rob banks or whatever the modern equivalent of that is.
Just like there are some ppl on social media who always like to troll others.
May 16, 2023
0
#33
Optimissed wrote:
paper_llama wrote:
Optimissed wrote:
Chess.com is deliberately inflating the ratings by starting new players off at silly ratings like 2200. It's basically theft of rating points.
In terms of inflation / deflation, starting rating is almost meaningless.
Absolutely wrong because there's a high turnover of players.
Beginners who join, lose a few games, and then quit are an inflationary effect, yes.
But again, starting rating is almost meaningless... since you can lose 100s of points for each of your first few games, the difference between starting at 2000 and 1200 is, for example, 5 games... and there's no reason to believe beginners are frequently choosing the highest starting rating. Most likely choose 1 or 2 levels above the lowest option... chess.com keeps changing it so it's hard to know, but that might be a rating of 1200.
I was boosted 400 and it went down 300
Oh, ok.
1700 was certainly on the high end back then, so you got the biggest boost... and then the system corrected chess.com's error by taking away 300.