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#86
The late GM Sveshnikov wrote:
“Give me five years, good assistants and modern computers, and I will trace all variations from the opening towards tablebases and 'close' chess.”
From John Tromp research:
Number of chess positions possible with 9 chess sets:
N9 = 8726713169886222032347729969256422370854716254
Number of chess positions with 26 men possible with 9 chess sets:
N926 = 162649677964723028114590870024481216875621152
Number of chess positions possible with 1 chess set:
N1 = 19201527561695835455154058755564594798074
Fraction of legal positions: FL = 0.052
Hence: Number of legal chess positions with 26 men possible with 1 chess set
NL126 = FL * N1 * N926 / N9 = 1.9 * 10^37
To proof checkers is a draw required to look only at roughly the square root of the number of possible positions.
Hence: Number of positions needed to solve chess from 26 men starting positions: 4.3 * 10^18.
The Sesse computer evaluates 49582886 nodes per second.
Hence time on Sesse to solve chess from 26 men starting positions: 2757 year
If we split the task in 500 subtasks that each look at only 1 of the 500 ECO codes:
Time to solve 1 ECO code e.g. C67 on Sesse: 5.5 year
So Sveshnikov was right: it takes 5.5 years to solve 1 ECO code of 26 men on Sesse.
It would require 500 Sesse computers and 5.5 years to fully solve chess.
Human assistants should guide the search to start each ECO code from a 26 men position.