Chess will never be solved, here's why

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mpaetz
Optimissed wrote:
mpaetz wrote:
Optimissed wrote: Regarding the people you were arguing with, nobody can help where they come from and Americans sometimes have less than usual tolerance for different cultures. They can't help it so don't take it to heart! 

     Many Americans do indeed consider their own culture and nation as the finest in history and demand an unrealistic degree of respect from "lesser" peoples. The same seems to be true of nearly every other society. Perhaps we can learn from England, adopting the philosophy that "the wogs begin at Calais" and resigning ourselves to the necessity to "take up the white man's burden".


"Many Americans" must be exceptionally ignorant, then. You said it! But a failure to learn from the mistakes of others is a far worse error than making such mistakes in the first place, especially when we have the capability, in the light of present day knowledge, to see those mistakes made in the past for what they are. England has learned from those mistakes and moved on but the USA wants to repeat them all and more besides. You repeat the point about "taking up the white man's burden" but England has never been a particularly racist society. However, I was talking about free speech and hypocrisy!

     Yes, many Americans, and Russians, and Englishmen, and people in every other nation on Earth are willfully ignorant and believe in "my country, right or wrong". This condition has existed everywhere through human history. 

     Thanks for your amusing comment reinforcing my point.

mpaetz
Optimissed wrote:


Meanwhile, there were a lot of people who were intolerant of the restoration of the monarchy and all it entailed. They tended to be the people who went to America on the Mayflower, so they could continue to make the lives of others a misery. Of all the colonies founded, only one in America was based on tolerance. All the others were at least to some degree despotic and governed by bigots.

     The "people who went to America on the Mayflower" constituted a very small % of the people who came to what is presently the United States during the colonial era. Many debtors and criminals were transported, and Dutch, Spanish and French colonies were incorporated into pre-revolutionary "America". The freedom-seeking Puritans are part of American legend, but most of the colonies were settled by well-to-do entrepreneurs looking for a chance to make a fortune. Immigrants from all nations, indentured servants, and slaves were recruited as a workforce.

     As far as "tolerance" goes, I doubt if the transported criminals and debtors found much, and indentured servants, not to mention slaves, were essential chattel. And the indigenous people were simply eliminated in great numbers.

     I find it interesting that you say that Britons that went abroad to every other part of the world they took over by force of arms turned out to be bigoted despots.

DiogenesDue
Optimissed wrote:

Sorry, I forgot that you're perfect. My mistake.

I'll tell you what though. For perfect people, you don't half defend yourselves at the slightest hint of criticism. I suppose that's why you're such a great nation.

Lol.  It's a prodigious leap from having hypocrisy pointed out to you to trying to claim anybody has said America is perfect in this discussion.  My track record on the subject of a perfect America says quite the opposite.  Any contortion in a storm, I guess.

DiogenesDue
Optimissed wrote:

p.s. learn what the word "hypocrisy" means and how it is normally applied and you'll be doing even better than the magnificently patriotic job you're already doing.

This, for example

Dictionary
Definitions from Oxford Languages · Learn more 
 
hypocrisy
/hɪˈpɒkrəsi/
 Learn to pronounce
 
noun
 
the practice of claiming to have higher standards or more noble beliefs than is the case.
"his target was the hypocrisy of suburban life"

is entirely wrong.

Actually it's a dead on description for you.  But here's a better definition:

Hypocrisy is the practice of engaging in the same behavior or activity for which one criticizes another or the practice of claiming to have moral standards or beliefs to which one's own behavior does not conform. In moral psychology, it is the failure to follow one's own expressed moral rules and principles.  According to British political philosopher David Runciman, "Other kinds of hypocritical deception include claims to knowledge that one lacks, claims to a consistency that one cannot sustain, claims to a loyalty that one does not possess, claims to an identity that one does not hold".

Even more on the nose, I would say.

As for patriots, you already know how much I eschew patriot-driven rhetoric...of all kinds.  I'm sorry for your loss.

DiogenesDue
Optimissed wrote:

What a wordsmith. Sure you aren't ... er ... ? I mean, not so well? Time of the month or whatever?

Misogyny is just another of your failings...

DiogenesDue
Optimissed wrote:

Anyway it sounds like it. No amount of dictionary reading is going to make up for the lack of a good education but you could at least find out what a hypocrite is. I don't pretend to be what I'm not but that isn't actually what a hypocrite is. Find out. I think they've changed a lot of dictionary online definitions so as not to upset people. Find out what a hypocrite is.

You claim to be educated, but this can hardly be the case when you have expressed disdain for and derision of every subject you have claimed to be educated on or read about for years wink.png.  Physics?  Twaddle.  Thermodynamics?  Invalid.  Microbiology?  Ineffectual.  Games theory?  Completely wrong.  Philosophy is given somewhat of a pass, but philosophers themselves are another story, since you find fault with them all thus far.  Psychology you seem okay with...but have no expertise in other than via osmosis from familial proximity.

So, telling others to educate themselves is just another manifestation of your hypocrisy.  You may have attended school, but you seemingly didn't absorb much.  Much like your IQ diatribes, your education is something you talk about, but never display any useful outcomes for.

DiogenesDue
Optimissed wrote:

When you've found out, then attempt to ignite your massive brain to work out why it applies to you and not to me. I'll give you a clue. I am not responsible for any errors or sins committed by past generations of ANY nation. You seem to think I am. I was wondering out loud why SOME people belonging to a certain nationality are so ego-centric that they are completely incapable of learning  from the mistakes of others, because the notion they could ever make any mistakes is so completely foreign to them. Not all people of that nation but some. You're clearly one of them and you are hated by very many people here. I've tried to show that I don't bear a grudge but clearly you haven't been taking the tablets again.

I am sometimes hated...by those who can never seem to stand up to my arguments, yourself chief among them.  For others, not so much.

HurtU
mpaetz wrote:

     Yes, many Americans, and Russians, and Englishmen, and people in every other nation on Earth are willfully ignorant and believe in "my country, right or wrong". This condition has existed everywhere through human history. 

     Thanks for your amusing comment reinforcing my point.

* * *


It's like the difference between nationalism and patriotism - two terms many people conflate. Patriotism comes from the pride for the good things your country has done. Nationalism comes from the pride for no matter what your country has done. Nationalism always leads to conflict.

 

DiogenesDue
HurtU wrote:
mpaetz wrote:

     Yes, many Americans, and Russians, and Englishmen, and people in every other nation on Earth are willfully ignorant and believe in "my country, right or wrong". This condition has existed everywhere through human history. 

     Thanks for your amusing comment reinforcing my point.

* * *


It's like the difference between nationalism and patriotism - two terms many people conflate. Patriotism comes from the pride for the good things your country has done. Nationalism comes from the pride for no matter what your country has done. Nationalism always leads to conflict.

Yes, unfortunately there's a lot of nationalism in America posing as patriotism.

TysonTima
😕
pds314

I come back to this thread 995 new posts later and suddenly it's about the early settlers in America, the British empire, and the difference between nationalism, patriotism, and national or ethnic chauvinism? How did this happen?

Isn't this about whether chess will be solved and debating whether won, drawn, or lost in chess means in a mathematically absolute sense or in an "overwhelming majority of conventionally good lines lead that way" sense?

tygxc

@7498

"Isn't this about whether chess will be solved and debating whether won, drawn, or lost in chess means in a mathematically absolute sense or in an "overwhelming majority of conventionally good lines lead that way" sense?"
++ Trolls sabotage the thread by spamming off topic.

Of course drawn, won, or lost in the context of game solving means the outcome if both opponents play optimally i.e. without errors that change the game state draw / win / loss.

Solved can have 3 meanings: ultra-weakly solved, weakly solved, or strongly solved.

Strongly solved means a 32-men table base, needs all 10^44 legal positions and that would take a prohibitive time and storage and thus is beyond current technology.

For all practical purpose Chess is already ultra-weakly solved and the game-theoretical value is a draw.

That leaves weakly solved like Checkers, and requires 10^17 relevant positions.
3 cloud engines of a billion nodes/s (or 3000 desktops of a million nodes/s) can do that in 5 years under human guidance by 3 grandmasters. That is also what GM Sveshnikov said.
That would cost 3 million $ to hire the grandmasters and rent the engines.
Whether Chess will be weakly solved or not depends on when somebody pays that cost.

pds314
tygxc wrote:

@7455

"due to having to do this with quintillions of positions" ++ Not according to me.
General case: calculation until the 7-men endgame table base.
Special cases: no further calculation for clear wins or clear draws.

"an amateur human chessplayer to make a proclamation as to whether other things are equal"
++ No. Sveshnikov called for good assistants, I understand that as (ICCF) (grand)masters.
But yes, for 1 e4 e5 2 Ba6? it is that obvious that also an amateur human chessplayer can see it.

Suppose there are 10^20 good-looking lines from some hypothetical position until you reach known tablebases. Maybe material is equal. Maybe it isn't But one side has an advantage. 99.9999999999% are wins for the player with a conventional advantage. 10^8 are draws. Any GM is going to see this as a completely winning position.

And of course we haven't factored the 10^50 or whatever lines that have nonsense-looking computer moves in them that only a tablebase would even think about but turn out to be important.

MARattigan
Optimissed wrote:
...

I would remind you that it's almost always you who brings up the subject of IQ. ...

What a whopper!

tygxc

@7501

"Suppose there are 10^20 good-looking lines from some hypothetical position until you reach known tablebases. 99.9999999999% are wins for the player with a conventional advantage. 10^8 are draws. Any GM is going to see this as a completely winning position."
++ No. It may be that some line is good-looking, but if it is a draw, then it is found sooner or later. That is what we see: some lines are very popular and then disappear from tournaments.

"we haven't factored the 10^50 or whatever lines that have nonsense-looking computer moves in them that only a tablebase would even think about but turn out to be important."
++ There are only 10^44 legal positions and the vast majority of them are absolute nonsense with 3 rooks or bishops at both sides, which can never happen with optimal play from both sides.

If we restrict promotions to pieces previously captured, there are only 10^37 positions and the vast majority of these cannot happen from optimal play by both sides either.
Inspection of a random sample of 10,000 such positions reveals none can result from optimal play by both sides either. You can check for yourself and take one of the 10,000 randomly sampled FEN and try to construct a game that leads to it. That leads to 10^37 / 10,000 = 10^33 positions.

Allowing only promotions to pieces previously captured is a bit too strict, as positions with 3 or 4 queens do occur in perfect games of ICCF WC Finals draws, so multiply by 10 to accept 3 or 4 queens, leaving 10^33 * 10 = 10^34 positions.

Weakly solving only needs 1 black response to draw, not all black responses. That leads to a square root: not w^2d but w^d = Sqrt (w^2d), e.g. not 20*20 = 400, but 20*1 = 20 = Sqrt (400). Thus Sqrt (10^34) = 10^17 relevant positions.

Cloud engines of a billion nodes/s can calculate that from opening to 7-men endgame table base in 5 years.

MARattigan
tygxc wrote:

@7426

"worst moves according to an unreliable evaluator that you know to be entirely wrong sometimes (i.e. the move it thinks is best is a losing blunder)."
++ I have even quantified the error rate: 1 error in 10^5 positions for a 10^9 nodes/s engine calculating 17 s/move.

The flaws in your method have already been pointed out.

You say here 

Your desktop is 1000 times slower than a cloud engine of 10^9 nodes/s. Time * 60 gives 5.6 times less error. 

If you were to look at these games as you steadfastly refuse to do, you will notice that four of them were played at 37 mins. per move. According to your figures, 17 sec. per move on your cloud engine is equivalent to about seven and a half times the time I  allocated on my desktop, so according to your "calculation" these games should have 1 half point blunder in around 42,500 ply.

The four games have a total of 290 ply so according to your "calculation", the expected total number of half point blunders in the games is about 0.007.

User @cobra91 has carefully checked the actual total with the Syzygy tablebase here. It comes to 11.

YOUR CALCULATIONS DON'T WORK. CAN YOU STOP POSTING THEM, PLEASE?

Thus 1 case in 10^20 positions where the table base exact move is not among the top 4 moves of the 10^9 nodes/s engine running 17 s/move.

Thus nothing, of course.
As only 10^17 positions are relevant to weakly solving Chess,
that means 0.001 error in the solution, i.e. not a single error at all.

Apart from obviously not, from the above; what solution? You're not even planning a solution according to any sensible definition.

The peer reviewed paper 'Games solved: Now and in the future' by Prof van den Herik states:
'it is often beneficial to incorporate knowledge-based methods in game-solving programs'

Problem is you don't seem to have any.

The peer-reviewed paper 'Acquisition of Chess Knowledge in AlphaZero' has 'knowledge' in its title. It leads to things we know, not things we guess, believe, or think.

It leads to things AlphaZero guesses. You use "guess" and "know" interchangeably, so I would have guessed you'ld say that (without actually knowing).

What's it got to do with your proposal to solve chess? Aren't you planning to use some version of Stockfish?
It has only the Laws of Chess i.e. axioms as input and performs only boolean operations i.e. logic to acquire knowledge i.e. theorems.

Precisely the same can be said of the program that produces FIDE's online version of its laws. It doesn't acquire any knowledge or state any theorems. With the current level of AI programs can'r really be said to know anything at all. You get to know what the program's algorithm produces; nothing more.

This paper ranks the first moves in figures 5 and 31:
d4 > e4 > Nf3 > c4 > e3 > g3 > Nc3 > c3 > b3 > a3 >
h3 > d3 > a4 > f4 > b4 > Nh3 > h4 > Na3 > f3 > g4.

Whoopidoo! I gave you my ranking earlier in the thread.

Once black has one path (there may exist several) to the 7-men endgame table base draw against the 4 best moves that oppose most to the draw,

There are only three possible outcomes. No such thing as opposing more.
then it is trivial to find such path to a draw or even a win for the 16 worst moves.

It might be trivial, but you haven't ventured to show how you can do it against SF15 from 1.e4 e5 2.Ba6. (Not that I think SF15 would manage it either against perfect play.)
You could object it is not complete, but you cannot object it is not valid.

The fact that it's not complete means it's not a valid solution.

In general a chess engine cannot correctly evaluate a chess position,
only the 7-men endgame table base can.

However, some positions with > 7 men are clear wins or draws and need no further calculation.

If you have a big red telephone to the Gent upstairs that is. The rest of us would need a solution.

1 e4 e5 2 Ba6? is an example of a clear loss for white. Stockfish says -8.1.
A full bishop up with all the rest being equal is more than a pawn up and is thus enough to win.
I have even demonstrated it is a forced checkmate in 72.

Or sometimes various other figures or a mate in 2 for Black as I demonstrated using the same method. (You are joking aren't you? It's not always clear.)

The final position of this game is an example of a clear draw with 12 men.
https://www.iccf.com/game?id=1164259 

I tried it with two engines in Arena. Are you sure your big red telephone took this line into account?

 

tygxc

@7504

"You're not even planning a solution according to any sensible definition."
++ Weakly solving just as sone for Checkers:
calculating from the opening to a 7-men endgame table base draw.

"Problem is you don't seem to have any."
++ you < me < grandmaster
I do not qualify as one of the 3 good assistants, which would require (ICCF)(grand)masters.

"What's it got to do with your proposal to solve chess? Aren't you planning to use some version of Stockfish?" ++ Yes, Stockfish running on 3 cloud engines with 3 grandmasters using knowledge to launch and occasionally terminate calculations.

"With the current level of AI programs can'r really be said to know anything at all."
++ The peer-reviewed paper has knowledge in its title, not guess, think, or belief.

"I gave you my ranking earlier in the thread."
++ You are not qualified. Otherwise publish your findings in a peer-reviewed paper.

"There are only three possible outcomes. No such thing as opposing more."
++ There is a thing as opposing more.
If say 1 e4 leaves only a series of only moves to secure the draw, and if 1 a4 allows say 6 different moves to secure the draw, then 1 e4 opposes more to the draw than 1 a4.

"how you can do against SF15 from 1.e4 e5 2.Ba6."
++ How I, or you, or Carlsen do against SF15 has nothing to do with solving Chess.

"The fact that it's not complete means it's not a valid solution."
++ Incomplete is not the same as invalid. After the good moves are proven unable to win for white, then it is trivial to repeat the same procedure for the bad moves.

"The rest of us would need a solution."
++ Some patzers may not understand that 1 e4 e5 2 Ba6? loses.

"I tried it with two engines in Arena" ++ Two bad engines... That position cannot be lost.

MARattigan
tygxc wrote:

@7504

"You're not even planning a solution according to any sensible definition."
++ Weakly solving just as sone for Checkers:
calculating from the opening to a 7-men endgame table base draw.

You've already claimed Checkers wasn't solved because not all openings were included in the solution. Whether or not that was the case you're planning to not solve chess for exactly the same reason (among others).

"Problem is you don't seem to have any."
++ you < me < grandmaster < SF ⋘ perfect. 
I do not qualify as one of the 3 good assistants, which would require (ICCF)(grand)masters.

You'ld be better just running three copies of SF on a desktop. Unless you're willing to wait for them to run SF for 5 days before adjudicating it would do just as well. Even if you're willing to wait 5 days every time, you're not guaranteed any improvement.

Definitely cheaper.

[Reinserted for context: The peer-reviewed paper 'Acquisition of Chess Knowledge in AlphaZero' has 'knowledge' in its title. It leads to things we know, not things we guess, believe, or think.]

"What's it got to do with your proposal to solve chess? Aren't you planning to use some version of Stockfish?" ++ Yes, Stockfish running on 3 cloud engines with 3 grandmasters using knowledge to launch and occasionally terminate calculations.

None of which are AlphaZero as far as I can see. So again, what's it got to do with your proposal to solve chess? 

"With the current level of AI programs can'r really be said to know anything at all."
++ The peer-reviewed paper has knowledge in its title, not guess, think, or belief.

Oh sorry. I didn't notice that. Of course that means AZ is sentient and knows what you say it knows. Has to be true if it's peer reviewed.

"I gave you my ranking earlier in the thread."
++ You are not qualified. Otherwise publish your findings in a peer-reviewed paper.

"There are only three possible outcomes. No such thing as opposing more."
++ There is a thing as opposing more.
If say 1 e4 leaves only a series of only moves to secure the draw, and if 1 a4 allows say 6 different moves to secure the draw, then 1 e4 opposes more to the draw than 1 a4.

Absolutely not in terms of perfect play.

"how you can do against SF15 from 1.e4 e5 2.Ba6."
++ How I, or you, or Carlsen do against SF15 has nothing to do with solving Chess.

Neither have your proposals. In particular your big red telephone is not a valid logical method.

"The fact that it's not complete means it's not a valid solution."
++ Incomplete is not the same as invalid. After the good moves are proven unable to win for white, then it is trivial to repeat the same procedure for the bad moves.

How can you say it's trivial when you can't do it?

And nobody knows what most of the good and bad moves are until someone (competent) manages to produce a solution.

"The rest of us would need a solution."
++ Some patzers may not understand that 1 e4 e5 2 Ba6? loses.

No it doesn't. Not even with Stockfish as White. Try it.

If you can't do it, you're one of the patzers. You don't understand things you can't do. (Doesn't apply just to game theory.)

"I tried it with two engines in Arena" ++ Two bad engines... That position cannot be lost.

Your big red telephone better than both, is it? Doesn't auger well for your project because one of them was SF15 which I think you're planning to use.

In any case you'ld consistently lose against either, so I think we can confidently dismiss your assertion that the position is a clear draw as just so much more BS. 

 

Fraqktal
Every time I look at this thread one thing comes to mind :

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DiogenesDue
Optimissed wrote:

I would remind you that it's almost always you who brings up the subject of IQ. It's your obsession and not mine. It's also a bit of a far stretch to equate discrepancies regarding a few findings in a subject with derision for the entire subject; and it really shows how you think. It shows that you make things up to deliberately attempt to falsely show others in a bad light.

Thinking about what you were saying yesterday, I would say that the amount of hostility you display very often in arguments you cause with very many people indicates strongly that to have that amount of anger on tap, so to speak, you must have a sort of reservoir of anger in you.

That indicates that you have underlying anger against yourself, so what causes it? Why is it that it's like a button is pressed, especially with regard to some moral issues or issues that you see as moral? And you become not only unreasonable, but hostile and you deliberately distort just about anything, in order to try to show others in a bad light. I mentioned before what others tend to think of you and I would say it's due to that. It's the deceit, the twisting and misrepresentation of other people's statements. I'm wondering what causes the degree of anger you have against yourself. Maybe I could try to guess. Quite a lot of people have already tried to guess what it is, of course. There's one theme that consistently comes out and I have to say that my mind is also drawn to that explanation.

Always the call to some nonexistent silent majority and the vague innuendo.  I laid out 4 examples of academic areas you have trashed repeatedly over time to back up my observations, and you laid out...nothing.  There's never a lick of substance in anything you are pushing.